Phillip's Natural World

Moon and Venus

2012-01-29T23:24:00.000-08:00

Venus was very close to the Moon in the evening sky this week.
I made some artsy images of the celestial phenomenon. Here smoke
from a nearby wildfire caused a kind of orange glow around the crescent
Moon and Venus. Venus is always brighter than any star with its greatest luminosity
being -4.9. It fades to about a magnitude -3 when it is backlit by the sun.
Venus is bright enough to be seen in the middle of the day when the sky is very clear.
This image was made with a 300 mm lens and a 30 second exposure.

Here a cloud and some smoke plus a passing jetliner interfered with my shot
of the Moon and Venus. I thought it made a kind of interesting presentation
despite the flaws in the execution of the image.
At any given time there are dozens of jetliners passing overhead. In this
25 second exposure I accidentally captured the running lights of the jetliner.
Click on this or any other image for a larger view.

The Moon begins to appear full the longer the lens of the camera is open.
This 15 second exposure reveals that the Moon was actually only a
thin crescent at the time the image was created.
The closest possible distance between Earth and Venus is
38 million km (23,600,000 miles). The farthest that Venus ever
gets from Earth is 261 million km (162,200,000 miles)

Here a cloud gave the Moon a sun-like glow. Venus also caused
some reflection on the lens that ruined this otherwise nice shot of the event.
Venus will periodically pass across the face of the sun. This event it called a transit.
The next transit will occur on June 6, 2012. . . it will be the last time for
over 100 years that this phenomenon can be viewed. .. so mark your calendars
and prepare your telescopes.

Two passing jets clutter this 20 second exposure of Venus and the Moon.
Venus is now far from the Moon in the early evening sky. . . however. . . Jupiter
is now approaching the Moon. . . though Jupiter does not appear quite as bright
as Venus due to its distance from Earth. At their closest. . . Jupiter and Earth
are almost 629 million km apart (almost 391 million miles).
At their most distant they are over 928 million km apart (almost 577 million miles).

Check out HUBBLESITE for much better images of the planets and stars.

Unrelated to the Moon and Venus is Dell-Roy Jackson. . . sitting on his iPad and
looking at his iPhone. He loves the iPad cover and is not happy unless I put
it on the counter so he can lay on it. He's a big boy. . . that's a full-sized stove
that he's sitting atop.

Today was another very warm and mostly-sunny day in Florida. The temperature
climbed into the mid-70°s F (24° C). We spent most of the late afternoon
painting the west side of the lake house. I hope to finish that project before
really hot weather returns to Florida.

Red-tailed Hawk

2012-01-29T22:49:00.000-08:00

Look closely on the right side of the power poles and you'll see a Red-tailed Hawk (Buteo jamaicensis). I was snapping photos of all the jetliners passing overhead and happened to notice the hawk, sitting motionless, in the frame. I'm fascinated by the paths the jets take. . . compensating for their destination. . . this one likely departed Miami (or somewhere further south) on its way to Atlanta.

Using a 300 mm (11-inch) lens I zoomed in a bit closer on the hawk. . . which was probably 1/2 mile (.80 km) from my position and at least 60-feet (18 m) off the ground on its perch atop the power poles.

Above: A close-up using a 1300 mm lens (51 inch) enhanced and colorized -- of the Red-tailed Hawk. This is a species of bird of prey living throughout North America. Typically these birds measure 18 to 26 inches (45 - 65 cm) and weigh up to 3½ pounds (1600 grams). This particular bird appears well-fed.

Above: This is another Red-tailed hawk, somewhat scrawnier, that is inhabiting our woods at the lake house. There is very little lake remaining due to the ongoing drought. . . but the hawk is an excellent hunter in the grassy marsh that remains of the lakes. More than once he has almost smacked me in the face with large snakes that he grabs in the grassland where the lake once was.

He grasps his prey in his talons -- still alive -- and flies toward his nest in our woods. . . dangling the struggling snake below. It always causes me to cringe and jump when I see a snake flying toward me at 30+ mph.

Red-tailed hawks are legally protected in Canada, Mexico, and the United States by the Migratory Bird Treaty Act of 1918. The statute makes it unlawful to pursue, hunt, take, capture, kill or sell listed birds. The statute does not discriminate between live or dead birds and also grants full protection to any bird parts including feathers, eggs, and nests.

Lone Wolf in California

2012-01-28T22:58:00.000-08:00

A Gray Wolf (Canis lupus) makes it to California.

Lone Wolf Commands a Following

By MALIA WOLLAN

SAN FRANCISCO — On the Chinese calendar, this week ushers in the year of the dragon. But here, it feels a lot more like the year of the wolf.

On Dec. 28, a 2 1/2 -year-old gray wolf (Canis lupus) crossed the state line from Oregon, becoming the first of his species to run wild here in 88 years.

His arrival has prompted news articles, attracted feverish fans and sent wildlife officials scrambling to prepare for a new and unfamiliar predator.

“California has more people with more opinions than other states,” said Mark Stopher, senior policy adviser for the California Department of Fish and Game. “We have people calling, saying we should find him a girlfriend as soon as possible and let them settle down. Some people say we should clear humans out of parts of the state and make a wolf sanctuary.”

Route traveled by Wolf OR7

The wolf, known to biologists as OR7, owes his fame to the GPS collar around his neck, which has allowed scientists and fans alike to use maps to follow his 1,000-mile, lovelorn trek south from his birthplace in northeastern Oregon.

Along the way, OR7 has accrued an almost cultlike status.

“People are going to get wolf tattoos, wolf sweaters, wolf key chains, wolf hats,” said Patrick Valentino, a board member with the California Wolf Center, a nonprofit advocacy and education organization.

John Stephenson, a biologist, measured the stride of the gray wolf known as OR7 in Crater Lake National Forest, Oregon, in December 2011.

In Oregon, students participated in art contests to draw OR7’s likeness and a competition to rename him (the winner: “Journey”). This month, people across the country attended full-moon, candlelight wolf vigils organized by groups with names like Howl Across America and Wolf Warriors.

As with seemingly all wayward and famous animals these days, the wolf has a lively virtual existence on social networking sites like Twitter, where at least two Twitter accounts have been posting from the wolf’s perspective.

“Left family to find wife & new home. eHarmony just wasn’t working for me,” read one Twitter profile. Another account, which describes the wolf’s hobbies as “wandering, ungulates,” recently had in a post: “Why is everyone so worried about my love life?”

Wolf OR7 whose image was captured by a remote trail camera in Oregon.

The wolf’s presence has also set off more practical responses from state wildlife officials, who are hustling to prepare for what they now see as the inevitability of wild gray wolves here.

In mid-January, the California Department of Fish and Game put up a gray wolf Web site that includes a map of OR7’s trek and a 36-page explainer on the species. The department has already begun a series of public meetings with local governments in the state’s northern counties, where wolves are most likely to take up residence first.

Biologists say that OR7 is unlikely to survive long hunting alone without a pack and that it could be as many as 10 years before wild wolf packs roam northern California. Still, state and federal wildlife officials met Friday to discuss a strategy for wolves.

Next month, state biologists will get training by the Agriculture Department to identify livestock killed by wolves.

Once widespread across much of the country, gray wolves were nearly extinct in the contiguous United States by the early 20th century, killed by government trappers, ranchers and hunters. In 1974, the gray wolf was listed as endangered under the newly established Endangered Species Act. Then in 1995 and 1996 wildlife officials released 66 Canadian wolves into Yellowstone National Park and central Idaho, an area that is now home to nearly 1,700 wolves.

Wolves have been remarkably successful in reinhabiting their old terrain. In recent years regulators removed wolves from the endangered list for much of the northern Rocky Mountains and Great Lakes regions. In Idaho and Montana, they can be legally hunted.

In California, gray wolves remain protected under federal law, and the recent appearance of one has flared up large predator agita among ranchers.

“I’m afraid somebody will step up and take this wolf’s life in their own hands,” said Darrell Wood, a cattle rancher. “There are huge state and federal penalties for killing a wolf.”

Mr. Wood’s family has been raising cattle in Lassen County — where OR7 is now and where the state’s last wolf was shot in 1924 — for six generations. “I just hope it wasn’t a relative of mine who shot him,” said Mr. Wood, 56.

Other area residents seemed more interested in the wolf’s place in the mythological pantheon. “What’s next, sparkly vampires?” asked a commenter on a Lassen County Times article about the wolf, an apparent reference to “Twilight,” the vampire and werewolf series.

Ardent wolf fandom and ire do not surprise Ed Bangs, the federal Fish and Wildlife Service’s recently retired wolf recovery coordinator. “When wolves come back, one side says it’s the end of civilization, our children will be dragged down at the bus stop,” he said. “The other side thinks nature is finally back in balance and can we all have a group hug now.”

California will see the same divisions, said Mr. Bangs, who in his 30 years in gray wolf management attended hundreds of contentious meetings with residents, ranchers and environmentalists.

“I like to say wolves are boring,” he said, “but people are fascinating.”

Finding a Middle Ground for the Gray Wolf

Ranchers moved cattle on their allotment in the Deer Lodge National Forest outside Deer Lodge, Mont., in September. Some conservationists and ranchers are beginning to work together to try to manage the wolf population.

Credit: Rich Addicks for The New York Times

Dean P. Peterson, a fourth-generation cattle rancher, has found himself acting as a grudging mediator between the two groups. Working through Mr. Peterson, a new nonprofit group, People and Carnivores, promotes “coexistence,” and has built a five-mile, $15,000 electric fence adorned with flags to protect new calves on a neighbor’s property.

Credit: Rich Addicks for The New York Times

“A lot of my neighbors think I am wet behind the ears to take money from these people,” said Mr. Peterson, left, who has not yet accepted financial help for himself. “But the wolf is here to stay now, and my feeling is that those people who want it here should share the costs.”

Credit: Rich Addicks for The New York Times

The conflict between conservationists and ranchers dates back generations, but tensions soared in 1995 and 1996, when the government reintroduced 66 gray wolves in Idaho and in Yellowstone National Park in Wyoming. The goal was to restore the balance to the regional ecosystem: after the wolves died out, elk and coyote populations had increased alarmingly.

Cattle grazing outside Jackson, Mont., at the foot of the Bitterroot Mountains, where wolves have been a problem in the past for the area’s cattle ranchers.

Credit: Rich Addicks for The New York Times

Bryce Andrews, manager of Dry Cottonwood Creek Ranch, is a passionate advocate for finding a way for cattle ranchers and wolves to coexist.

Credit: Rich Addicks for The New York Times

Pro-wolf protesters in downtown Bozeman, Montana

MONTANA KILLS WOLVES DESPITE PROTESTSMontana set a quota of 220 wolves to be killed this season, or 25 percent of the state’s total population. The hunting tags sold swiftly, which some attributed to pent-up rage among the ranchers.

After Years of Conflict, a New Dynamic in Wolf Country

By LESLIE KAUFMAN

JACKSON, Mont. — As a fourth-generation rancher, Dean B. Peterson has a complicated relationship with wolves.

In the 1880s, they preyed on his family’s livestock after his great-grandparents arrived as homesteaders along the Big Hole River. By the 1930s, wolves were nearly extinct as a result of traps and poisons. By the time Mr. Peterson was born in the 1960s, the traps had given way to nostalgic tales about how clever the wolves had been.

Growing up, he thrilled to the sight of any wolf and to the sound of an occasional nighttime howl. But as an adult, witnessing a rebound in the gray wolf population, he did not hesitate to shoot one when it passed behind his sons’ jungle gym and headed for the cattle pen.

“I do not dislike or hate the animal,” said Mr. Peterson, who calls wolves “an unreal species that God created.”

Instead, he resents the conservationists who pressed the federal government to reintroduce the gray wolf to the Northern Rockies in the mid-1990s. That decision was shoved “down our throat with a plunger,” he said.

Yet the dynamic between ranchers and conservationists has begun to change, and Mr. Peterson is surprised to find himself acting as a grudging mediator.

The turning point came early this year as lawmakers from some Western states were demanding that the government remove the gray wolf from the endangered species list, and cede control of the animal in Montana and Idaho to state governments. In April, they succeeded by attaching a rider to a budget bill.

Aghast, some environmental groups had a moment of reckoning. Had they gone too far in using the Endangered Species Act as a cudgel instead of forging compromises with ranchers?

So a handful began reaching out to ranchers, offering them money and tools to fend off wolves without killing them. And some ranchers, mindful that tough federal restrictions could be reimposed if wolf numbers dwindle again, have been listening. Tentative partnerships are cropping up, and a few that already existed are looking to expand.

Working through Mr. Peterson, People and Carnivores, a new nonprofit group that promotes “coexistence” has, with help from the Wildlife Conservation Society, built a five-mile, $15,000 electric fence adorned with flags to protect calves on a neighbor’s property. This summer, it helped pay for a mounted rider to patrol 20 square miles of grazing land shared by three ranches near Mr. Peterson’s as a deterrent.

“A lot of my neighbors think I am wet behind the ears to take money from these people,” said Mr. Peterson, who has not yet accepted aid for himself. “But the wolf is here to stay now, and my feeling is that those people who want it here should share the costs.”

The conflict dates back generations, but tensions soared in 1995 and 1996, when the government reintroduced 66 gray wolves in Idaho and in Yellowstone National Park in Wyoming. The goal was to restore balance to the regional ecosystem: after the wolves died out, elk and coyote populations had increased alarmingly. Elk herds were destroying large tracts of vegetation, and coyotes had reduced second-tier predators like badgers.

The federal Fish and Wildlife Service set a minimum population goal of some 150 wolves, plus 15 breeding pairs, in Idaho, Wyoming and Montana. To their surprise, the wolves hit those targets in just seven years and spread beyond the wilderness areas.

Livestock kills began to climb, and the ranchers grew angry. They even blamed the wolves for cows’ weight loss. “They come off the pasture on average about 100 pounds lighter than before there were wolves in the area,” Mr. Peterson said. “They spend so much time looking around, they don’t have time to eat.”

By 2007, the total number of wolves in the three states was 1,513. Surveying the evidence, the Fish and Wildlife Service sought that year to have the animal “delisted” under the Endangered Species Act. But conservationists sued to block that move, saying Wyoming lacked an adequate management plan. A federal court in Missoula, Mont., agreed.

In 2009, the Fish and Wildlife Service tried again to remove wolves from federal protection in all areas except in Wyoming. The court would not allow it, setting the stage for a revolt by lawmakers and this year’s unusual Congressional vote. The Interior Department then brokered a similar compromise in Wyoming.

Wolf hunts began in Idaho and Montana at the end of the summer. Montana set a quota of 220 wolves to be killed, or 25 percent of the state’s total population; the hunting tags sold swiftly, which some attributed to pent-up rage among the ranchers.

The backlash led some environmentalists to question their approach. “I personally look back and say there were a number of things that conservationists did that were not effective and which blew up on us,” said Lisa Upson, executive director of Keystone Conservation, a Montana-based nonprofit group that offers ranchers help with nonlethal control measures. “Now we have to live with this horrible precedent.”

So her group and others are pouring energy into training mounted riders to fend off wolves. They are promoting husbandry techniques that allow calves to grow stronger in penned areas before grazing on the range. Drawing on a folk wisdom that dates from medieval times, they have hung lines of red flags along pastures to deter wolves from approaching.

Most acknowledge that such measures are not a panacea. Michael D. Jimenez, the wolf recovery coordinator for the Fish and Wildlife Service outside Jackson, Wyo., says federal and state agencies have tried guard dogs, noise aversion (cannons or sirens set off by motion detectors) and “scent aversion,” or placing wolf urine and scat on trees, for years. “Each works in some circumstances,” Mr. Jimenez said, “but are not necessarily a match for a robust wolf population.”

And ranchers may not embrace such tactics. Once, after Ms. Upson thought she had talked some ranchers in the Upper Ruby Valley in Montana into sharing half the cost of a mounted summer rider, she found that they had used the money to pay for fuel for helicopters dispatched for wolf shootings.

Tensions between conservationists and ranchers in the Big Hole area have run especially high. Two summers ago, wolves took about a dozen calves from Mr. Peterson’s herd as it grazed in the mountains. He complained to the Department of Agriculture’s Wildlife Services agency, which responded by shooting only one wolf.

In Mr. Peterson’s view, that was hardly a solution. He says the government’s response has been hampered by too many rules and too little money. Ranchers are often asked by wolf hunters to pay up to $350 an hour for the helicopter fuel, he said.

If wolves are going to be part of the landscape,Mr. Peterson decided, he wants ranchers to get their share of the money “the people in Los Angeles and New York send” to conservationists to find solutions.

So he will continue to work with environmentalists and try to persuade his neighbors to do the same.“I think I should be able to shoot on sight on my land, no questions asked,” he said, but “I am willing to do my part to try and adapt.”

Warm and Stormy Florida

2012-01-26T11:50:00.000-08:00

Its a warm afternoon in Florida with current temperatures around 85° F (29° C).

A cool front approaches from our west which is bringing some gusty winds . . .

the winds are whipping up the dust. There is some hope for rain from this system. . .

but as it reaches the Florida peninsula it is going to lose much of its punch

and the associated squall line.

Currently the most likely area for severe weather is to our

northwest in the Florida Panhandle.

The strong upper level low pressure system exited Texas this morning

and then began moving across the Southeastern USA.

A squall line of thunderstorms ahead of the associated cold front is

expected to intensify as it moves east into an increasingly moist and

unstable air mass over the Gulf Coast states.

As has been the case through this fall and winter. . . the storm is

expected to weaken as it reaches into central Florida sometime Friday morning.

Venus and the Moon

2012-01-25T09:16:00.000-08:00

This evening and tomorrow evening at dusk, look toward the southwestern part of the sky for a lovely crescent Moon and the brilliant planet Venus.

Now gleaming at magnitude minus 4, Venus has ascended dramatically higher this month and now sets about three hours after the Sun.

No other star of planet can come close to matching Venus in brilliance. In the image above -- from last night -- Venus is in the far top left of the image while the moon is near the horizon. Venus is so bright that during World War II, aircraft spotters sometimes mistook Venus for an enemy airplane, even calling for antiaircraft fire.

In some parts of the northern hemisphere stepping outside to view Venus can be a frosty experience. That is not the case in Florida this January where high temperatures have again topped 80° F (27° C) this morning.

Southeast breezes and high pressure continue across the Florida peninsula bringing temperatures at least 10° F (+5° C) above normal. There exists only a slight chance of brief showers along the Martin and St. Lucie County Coasts, south of Cape Canaveral.

Dense fog mixed with smoke from wildfires continues to form, nightly. The high pressure ridge axis over north-central Florida is producing light winds at night. That, coupled with increasing moisture results in conditions favorable for late night and early morning fog along the central peninsula.

The fog generally burns off by 9:00 in the mornings.

Slightly cooler weather is forecast for the weekend -- though it will remain unseasonably warm. and very dry. An arctic cold front will push into the northern Plains on Friday and will spread southeast. . . reaching the east coast on Sunday. . . but the cold air will largely bypass the Florida peninsula.

Drought conditions over Florida are now rated as abnormally dry to extreme. In east central Florida we've had no measurable rain for the past 6 weeks. These conditions are predicted to worsen through the spring as a moderate to strong La Niña event in the equatorial Pacific Ocean continues to influence our weather.

Above: Precipitation probability forecast through April 2012. Brown colors indicate below

normal precipitation forecast.

Solar Flare

2012-01-24T23:09:00.000-08:00

Following one of the longest and weakest periods of activity in many cycles, the Sun is brimming with activity again. In late January 2012, our nearest star offered a preview of what may be to come in the solar maximum of 2012–13. The storm has the potential to disrupt some communications and satellite systems and to bring auroras to high-latitude skies.

The images above show a solar flare as observed by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) at 03:27, 03:42, and 04:12 Universal Time (Greenwich Time) on January 23. Note the brightening of the solar surface as gas was superheated and magnetically supercharged. By the third (right) image, a stream of solar material is seen flowing off into space above the hot spot, likely solar protons and a coronal mass ejection. Click on the images to enlarge or visit NASA's EARTH OBSERVATORY for more photos.

The high-latitude solar flare was measured as M8.7 in intensity, just below the most intense “X class” of flares. The eruption sent a stream of fast-moving, highly energetic protons toward Earth, provoking the most intense solar energetic particle storm—an S3 on NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center’s scale—since 2005.

The flare was accompanied by a coronal mass ejection (CME), a cloud of solar plasma that was ejected from the solar atmosphere in the direction of Earth. The CME was observed by the STEREO and SOHO spacecraft with an initial speed of more than 2,000 kilometers (1,400 miles) per second. It was estimated to reach Earth sometime on January 24 and Mars on January 25. NOAA forecasters were predicting a G2 geomagnetic storm, though a G3 was possible.

Solar flares and CMEs are not a danger to humans on Earth's surface, as the planet's magnetic field (magnetosphere) and atmosphere deflect and absorb the solar energy and particles. The sun storms can pose some risks to astronauts, and they can upset the electronics and transmissions on science, military, and communications satellites. Closer to Earth's surface, solar activity can cause disruptions of radio signals (particularly HF), provide a small dose of radiation to passengers on high-latitude flights, and provoke auroras (northern and southern lights).

The storm is impressive by recent standards, but nowhere near the maximum intensities often generated at the height of the solar cycle. “I would expect that we will see more storms like this one or even bigger as we get closer to solar maximum,” said Michael Hesse, chief of heliophysics at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center.

NASA images courtesy Solar Dynamics Observatory. Caption by Mike Carlowicz.

Late January Global Weather Heats Up

2012-01-24T00:31:00.000-08:00

This morning at 03:39 UTC, big sunspot 1402 erupted, sending a coronal mass ejection (CME) headed towards Earth.

This CME is expected to set off a solar storm on January 24 - 25. NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is advising that high-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms; long-duration storms may cause transformer damage. Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; possible changes in satellite drag affect orbit predictions. HF radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes. . .

. . . and the aurora borealis may be seen as low as New York, Idaho, mid-Aleutians. According to NOAA, this is the strongest solar storm since May 2005.

RARE JANUARY TORNADO

OUTBREAK KILLS TWO

INJURES 100s in ALABAMA

The calendar says it's the coldest month of winter, but today's weather is more typical of March, as a vigorous spring-like storm system has spawned a rare and deadly January tornado outbreak. Twenty tornadoes were reported in Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee last night and this morning, killing at least two, injuring 100, and causing major damage. Two deaths were reported in Canter Point and one unconfirmed death in Oak Grove in Alabama, from a tornado that ripped through the area near 3:30 am EST. The deaths were the first of the 2012 tornado season.

In Clanton, about 50 miles south of Birmingham, Alabama, a separate tornado hit near 8:12 am EST this morning, trapping people in overturned trailer homes, destroying the WKLF radio studio, and toppling a 302-foot high transmission tower.

SIGNIFICANT JANUARY TORNADOES

Historically, January has been the least active month for tornadoes in the U.S. According to the Tornado History Project, during the 61-year period 1950 - 2010, 1223 January tornadoes occurred--an average of twenty per year. There have been two Januarys with no reported tornadoes--2003 and 1986. Thus far in 2012, there have been 44 preliminary tornado reports, so we are already at double the historical January average, with a week still to go in the month. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has put Alabama and Georgia in their "Slight Risk" area for severe weather the remainder of today, so it is likely we will add a few more tornadoes to this month's tally before the outbreak is finished. January 2012 appears likely to become one of the top-five busiest months for January tornadoes in recorded history. Only four years since 1950 have had more than 50 January tornadoes:

January 1999 218

January 2008 88

January 1975 54

January 1997 50

The most recent significant January tornado outbreak occurred last year on January 1, 2011, when seven tornadoes, including two EF-3s, touched down in Mississippi, injuring two people.

The most prolific January tornado outbreak on record occurred January 21 - 22, 1999, when 126 tornadoes, including one violent F-4, hit Arkansas, Missouri, Mississippi, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, Illinois, Texas, and Alabama, killing nine people. A separate outbreak four days earlier, on January 17, spawned 22 tornadoes.

On January 7 - 11, 2008, a series of 75 tornadoes hit the U.S. This second busiest-ever U.S. January tornado outbreak hit southwestern Missouri, northwestern Arkansas and the surrounding areas the hardest. A strong supercell in northern Illinois and southeastern Wisconsin produced that region's first January tornadoes since 1967. Four people were killed, and the tornadoes did $88 million in damage. Fifteen strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes were reported.

The deadliest January tornado since record keeping began in 1950 occurred on January 23, 1969, when an F-4 tornado hit a 5-county region south of Jackson Mississippi, killing 32 people.

Yesterday's deadly Clay, Alabama

tornado rated an EF-3

A damage survey by the NWS confirmed that the tornado that hit Clay, Alabama yesterday, killing two and injuring over 100, was a strong EF-3 tornado with 150 mph winds. A second EF-3 tornado with 140 mph winds touched down yesterday near Koffman, Alabama, and tore off the roof of a house and a barn. These are the only two EF-3 tornadoes of the year so far. There have been no EF-4 or EF-5 tornadoes yet. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Southern Texas in their "Slight Risk" region for severe weather today, and portions of East Texas and Western Louisiana in the "Slight RIsk" region for Wednesday, and a few isolated tornadoes are possible in Texas and Louisiana over the next two days.

La Niña may be to Blame

Alabama could be in for another season of strong storms, thanks to an unusual recurrence of weather disruption known as La Niña.

A La Niña occurs when the ocean surface temperatures off the coast of Peru are colder than normal. That sets off a series of changes to weather patterns around the globe. Meteorologists believe that La Niña conditions in 2011 helped set the stage for tornadoes last spring.

Alabama state climatologist John Christy said the strong La Niña in 2010 and 2011 led meteorologists to predict that La Niña conditions would return after fading in the summer of 2011, and indeed they did. The double dip La Niña is uncommon.

"It is fairly rare but not unprecedented," Christy said.

During a La Niña, it tends to be warmer than normal in the southeastern United States. In north Alabama, it tends to be wetter. In a normal year, storms are randomly distributed across the country, but in a La Niña year, the storms tend to occur more frequently in the Ohio Valley. The southern trailing edges of those storms sweep across north Alabama, Christy said.

In south Alabama, La Niña is associated with drought. In Florida and the southern portions of Alabama and Georgia, extremely dry conditions are in place and have been since the beginning of the La Niña in 2010.

Birmingham and areas of central Alabama roughly corresponding to the east-west path of Interstate 20 lie in a transition zone between the two.

See more photos at THE BIRMINGHAM NEWS

FLORIDA HEAT CONTINUES

High temperatures in the 80°s F (27° C) continue over most of Florida and will continue for the remainder of the week. The heat is creating some dense fog in places, especially near sunrise. Needless to say, in Florida, air conditioners are running . . .

TROPICAL CYCLONE FUNSO

SLAMS MOZAMBIQUE

Earth's first major tropical cyclone of 2012 is Tropical Cyclone Funso, a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds located in the Mozambique Channel between Madagascar and Mozambique. Conditions for intensification have been favorable over the past few days, with light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, water temperatures of 29°C (84° F), and an eddy of high oceanic heat content with warm waters extending to great depth located under the center of the storm. Funso is expected to intensify further and have sustained winds of 145 mph by Wednesday. Fortunately, the center of the storm is expected to remain offshore as the storm moves slowly southwards. The outer spiral bands of Funso have dumped torrential rains on Mozambique the past several days, triggering floods that have killed at least twelve people. The floods have swept across the main north-south highway in the country, cutting off the capital of Maputo from the north and center of the country. Flooding from Funso was made worse by the saturated soils left by Tropical Depression Dando, whose rains caused flooding that killed ten people in the country last week.

Mozambique Struggles with Flooding

(CNN) -- Double-punched by two Indian Ocean storms, the southern African nation of Mozambique on Tuesday struggled with the destruction of a portion of its main national highway, cut-off communications and a reported death toll of 18, according to the nation's National Institute for Natural Disasters.

Tropical Cyclone Funso is lashing the central portion of the country, causing flooding along the Incomati River. Officials fear fuel and food shortages will start hit northern cities in Mozambique that usually get supplies via roadway from the capital, Maputo.

Funso currently has winds of 213 kph (about 132 mph), which would make it equal to a Category 4 major hurricane if located in the Atlantic, said CNN Senior Meterologist Brandon Miller. The center of circulation is in the Mozambique Channel, between central Mozambique and the island of Madagascar.

It is forecast to strengthen as it meanders south through the Mozambique Channel over the next several days, Miller said. The storm is spreading rainfall over much of Mozambique and Madagascar, and this will continue for several days as the storm is moving very slowly, Miller said.

Last week, southern Mozambique was hit by heavy rains from tropical depression Dando.

Cecilio Grachane, the chief of the National Roads Administration, expects provisional repairs will be done on the nation's critical north-south highway by Wednesday. But because of poor communication, traffic continues to move toward the place where the waters of the Incomati are overwashing the highway.

The U.S. Embassy in Mozambique said Tuesday it had received reports from two American citizens unable to travel because of a road closure. There have been no reports of Americans injured, it said.

Prime Minister Aires Ali visited the area on Sunday, urging people to not move on the road before they get clear advice on road and weather conditions. On Monday, small boats were helping move people trapped by floodwaters along the highway.

The Movene River, a tributary of the Umbeluzi, has risen substantially, limiting access to the Umbeluzi water treatment station on which Maputo relies for its water supply. Water used by residents of the capital city now has a brown color.

Oldest Tree Destroyed

2012-01-21T23:19:00.000-08:00

In this 1920s image, two men gave an indication of the girth of the Senator, named after Senator M. O. Overstreet, who donated land for a park in 1927. The 3,500 year old tree was destroyed last week. Authorities still do not know what caused the fire that killed the beloved tree.

In Flash of Fire, Florida Loses Old Friend

By LIZETTE ALVAREZ

LONGWOOD, Fla. — Back, way back, before King Tut was born and Alexander the Great roamed his empire, the Senator sprouted in a swamp here in central Florida, one of thousands of its kind.

So on Monday, when word got out that the huge, 3,500-year-old bald cypress (Taxodium distichum to scientists) had burned and collapsed, people from the area who thought that nothing — not hurricanes, not loggers, not disease — could fell the Senator, sank into disbelief. In a state known for its sprawl and its zeal for pouring concrete, the Senator stood as a testament to nature and ancient history. It was one of the oldest trees in the country and, at 118 feet, one of the tallest east of the Mississippi.

The Senator held its venerable ground 3,000 years before Columbus sailed to America, 2,500 years before William conquered England, 2,000 years before the fall of Rome, 1,500 years before the birth of Christ, and 500 years before the reign of King David. How odd to consider that something that lasted so long and endured so much came to its end in our lifetime.

Above: The tree before the fire. It stood in a park off of a busy highway lined

with auto dealerships and strip malls. . . ignored by most who passed. In the 1980s

there was an artesian well at the site of the park where people would stop to fill up

jugs of water thinking them the stuff of the mythical fountain of youth.

“There is so little of this old history left,” said Lauren Wyckoff, 28, an environmental scientist and self-described tree hugger, who drove to Big Tree Park from nearby Orlando after work to pay her respects. “It’s not just some tree in your backyard. I mean, it’s 3,500 years old; I just picture everything it saw, everything it has been through. I’m crying,” she said, with a laugh, as her eyes reddened. “When I first came here, I had no idea it would be as amazing as it was. No idea it would be as impactful.”

Although a state investigator said Monday he was not convinced it was the work of an arsonist, the state Division of Forestry said Tuesday that arson may have played a part.

"We're not ruling anything out at this time," said Cliff Frazier, a spokesman for the agency. "It's like a crime scene. … But however long it takes, we'll get to the bottom of it."

Investigators for the Division of Forestry are still trying to figure out how the tree burned down. Arson remains a possibility. Two other possible theories are being considered: the tree was struck by lightning long before Monday (maybe as long as two weeks) and slowly smoldered from the inside, or friction from the wind caused it to combust. The lightning theory is implausible as there has been virtually no rain in the area since mid-December.

An undated image of the tree

Around town, these last two theories were met with skepticism and a touch of derision. The Senator, which was the only tree in the small park to catch fire, was equipped with a lightning rod. And if the tree had been struck by lightning and smoldered for two weeks, residents said, somebody surely would have seen or smelled it. As for friction, that notion drew nothing but smirks.

“Of course, maybe a plane flew over and dropped an ember into the hole,” Rick Waters, 49, who runs Mel’s Family Diner in Sanford, a couple of miles from the tree’s resting place, said with a chuckle.

Firefighters putting out the fire in the ancient tree. It was the only tree in the area

to catch fire. The tree was equipped with a lightning rod to protect it from

thunderstorms . . . though there have been no such storms in the area for some time.

The revered tree wasn’t just old; it was huge. At nearly 18 feet in diameter, it was so large it would take a passel of children holding hands to surround it.

Named for Senator M. O. Overstreet, who donated the land to Seminole County to use as a park in 1927, the Senator has long been a landmark for Floridians. It survived the logging epidemic, which claimed many of the giant trees that once stood in the county. (The Senator may have been spared because it was hollow, a condition that occurred as the tree aged). It endured centuries of nasty hurricanes, including one in 1925 that lopped off 40 feet from the top.

Back then, four decades before Disney World rose from swampland, the towering bald cypress was the star attraction in these parts. Visitors arrived on horse and buggy and then jumped from log to log to get a close-up glimpse of the tree.

“You could see it from pretty much everywhere around here” it was so tall, said Joseph R. Abel, the director of the Leisure Services Department in Seminole County.

Now children are brought here on field trips to gawk skyward and imagine what Florida was like back when it was nothing but forest and swamp and Indians were its only inhabitants. Families have always come to snap photos, and nature-lovers arrived on pilgrimages.

The tree burning and charred.

What remains now is a trunk, split in half, and a charred shard of wood that shoots 30 feet into the air. The remnants of the tree lie split, on their sides, black and sooty. Outside the gates of the park sits a little tribute of flowers with a sign reading “Rest in Peace Senator.” The park is closed for now as investigators determine what caused the fire.

But the new Florida had long been a too-quick walk away from the Senator. Traffic whizzes by in front of the park and fast-food joints sit right up the street. And though the tree was revered by some, competition from modern life had dwarfed its appeal a good while back.

Visitors in 1935 admire The Senator.

There are not many awe-inspiring things left, Ms. Wyckoff said. “It was crazy, insane, you can’t imagine how large it was,” she said.

President Calvin Coolidge and his wife appear to stand in front of The Senator

at the dedication of Big Tree Park in 1929. In reality, their image was pasted

onto a picture of the tree -- and the altered photo was published in newspapers of the time.

Yet only 40 feet from the Senator looms an understudy: Lady Liberty, estimated to be 2,000 years old, is now the park’s tallest cypress. It is 89 feet tall and not nearly as imposing, but in this time of transitory celebrity, its moment has arrived.

Seminole County parks officials said they may build a memorial to the Senator. The memorial probably would be built from the remains of the tree. The county's Leisure Services Department has received many calls from artists, craftsmen and memorabilia hunters seeking a piece of the tree. County officials said it is too early to say what will happen to the remains.

"We're trying to see what we can do to salvage some of the wood that wasn't burned and what to do for a memorial," said Jim Duby, a program manager for the Seminole County department.

Flirting with 80°

2012-01-18T23:27:00.000-08:00

Winter wonderland in Everett, Washington

click on any image to enlarge
right-click or drag any image to copy to your desktop

Hoarfrost in Anchorage, Alaska

MAJOR WINTER STORMS

POUND THE NORTHWEST

While a series of major winter storms pound the Pacific Northwest. . . we're flirting with 80° F (27° C) high temperatures and dry weather in Central Florida. The latest "cold" front that pushed through yesterday brought only cool weather and no rain to the east side of the parched peninsula.

Lacey, Washington snow

Meanwhile in the Northwest the ferocious winter storms pounding the coast from San Francisco to Seattle show no signs of abating until at least next Wednesday. The storms are bringing heavy snow, flooding rains, and winds near hurricane force over coastal waters.

Tacoma, Washington snow

The Seattle area received 3-5 inches yesterday . . . the heaviest snows fell just north of Portland Oregon, where Toutle, Washington received 18 inches as of 6:00 am PST. The storm also brought 2 inches of snow to Portland yesterday evening. The wet, heavy snow brought down numerous trees and power lines.

An Alaskan Ice Dragon . . . on a frosted window

Very heavy snows of 1-3 feet have fallen in the Cascade Mountains east of Seattle, causing extreme avalanche danger. Further east, in Yellowstone National Park, 2 feet of snow are forecast to fall by the weekend.

An atmospheric river of moisture extends all the way to Hawaii. This moisture will continue to stream ashore in the coming days.

Mount Vernon, Washington

A flood watch has been issued for the Portland area with near 100% chance of rain, daily, through next Wednesday with temperatures in the mid-40°s (8° C).

A cold rain is also forecast to fall across Idaho for the foreseeable future with temperatures in the mid-40°s in Boise.

At higher elevations winter storm warning are in effect through most of southwestern Montana where roads are expected to be snow-covered and icy creating hazardous travel conditions.

A dusting of snow on the ground in Lebanon, Wisconsin should be augmented this week.

This snow will likely melt in El Dorado Springs, Missouri as temperatures climb into the mid 50°s F ( 13° C) this weekend.

The storms will continue their march east, across the continent. . .but will be staying far to the north as a strong jet stream maintains a zonal flow across the continent. . . with the coldest air bottled up over Canada and springtime-like warmth across the southern tier of states. Even as far north as Atlanta, the weekend high temperatures are forecast to be in the 70°s F (21° C).

Sanibel Island, Florida

Florida -- which could use the rain -- is going to experience daily temperatures around 80° (27° C) through next week with little to no chance of rainfall.

Visit

PHILLIP'S NATURAL WORLD 2.0

and

PHILLIP'S NATURAL WORLD 3.0

for more science and nature photography

Florida Wildfire

2012-01-15T23:51:00.000-08:00

A wildfire broke out this afternoon near our lake house.

There were helicopters flying around the fire. . . these shots

were taken with a 300mm lens which distorts distance and

makes everything appear much closer than it is.

If you look closely (click on the image to enlarge) you can see that

boat docks are far from any water that remains in the lakes.

Again, these images are distorted. This is 700 acre Lake Theresa which is

virtually dry. The lens distorts the distance and makes it appear like there is still

ample water in the lakes. The puddles of water that remain

are about 1 mile from our house.

The fire burned around what remains of Lake DuPont. . . another large

lake that is virtually dry. Lake DuPont covers about 650 acres when it is full.

The blaze started about 12:30 pm on Camp Lamitchee Road. Fire crews spent

about 4 hours containing the blaze which spread into several fires over 90 acres.

It was very windy. . . which helped to spread the flames and the smoke.

Temperatures were cool. . .in the mid-60°s F (18° C). Aside from

smoke the skies were cloud free.

This image (above) was made with my iPhone. There is no distance distortion.

In the image you can see that there remains virtually nothing but dry grass

where the lake once was. The white post -- bottom right of image -- is

the lake level gauge which is sitting a long way from any water.

Normally the gauge would be in about 5-feet of water.

Another image from my iPhone (above).

While the fires were burning I was dousing our woods with

thousands of gallons of water.

Several homes were evacuated along Adelia Blvd. . . residents have since been

allowed to return.

Extremely dry weather over a long period coupled with strong winds and have

created the prefect conditions for wildfires in Florida.

Except for a few deep holes where springs once existed . . . the lakes

are mere puddles today. What water remains is extremely shallow.

The extremely dry conditions are expected to continue over the Florida peninsula

through May. The graph above highlights the area where below normal precipitation

is forecast in shades of brown. This extremely dry weather is the result of three

consecutive years of La niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean which results

in below normal rainfall for Florida.

Most of Florida is experiencing some level of drought.

There is a slight chance of rain today, then more above-normal temperatures

with clear skies are forecast for the foreseeable future.

Extreme Temperatures of 2011

2012-01-14T17:34:00.000-08:00

A cool January sunset

It was cool across the Florida peninsula today with highs only in the low 60°s F (17° C). After a cold night tonight (graphic above and below) we'll gradually warm back up to temperatures near 80° F (26° C) for the foreseeable future.

EXTREME TEMPERATURES IN 2011

The year 2011 was the tenth warmest year on record for the globe, but the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present . Seven nations and one territory broke all-time hottest temperature records. This is a far cry from 2010 (which tied for the warmest year on record), when twenty nations (plus one UK territory) set all-time hottest temperature records.

One all-time coldest temperature record was set in 2011; this was the first time since 2009 that a cold record was set. The all-time cold record occurred in Zambia, which ironically also set an all-time hottest temperature record in 2011. Here, then, are the most most notable extreme temperatures globally in 2011.

Hottest temperature in the world in 2011: 53.3°C (127.9°F) in Mitrabah, Kuwait, August 3.

Coldest temperature in the world in 2011: -80.2°C (-112.4°F) at Dome Fuji, Antarctica, September 18.

Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 49.4°C (120.9°F) at Roebourne, Australia, on December 21.

Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -67.2°C (-89°F) at Summit, Greenland, March 18. This is also the coldest

March temperature ever recorded in the Northern Hemisphere.

Hottest undisputed 24-hour minimum temperature in world history: A minimum temperature of 41.7°C (107°F) measured at Khasab Airport in Oman on June 27

NEW HOTTEST TEMPERATURE RECORDS

Iraq recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011 in Tallil (Ali military airbase), when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F). The previous record was 52.3°C recorded at Diwanya FOB airbase a few days before.

Armenia recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31 in Meghri, when the mercury hit 43.7°C (110.7°F). The previous record was 43.1°C in Meghri on July 17, 2005.

Iran recorded its hottest temperature in its history on July 28, 2011, when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran. The previous previous record was set just one day earlier at Omidieh and Shoshtar, when the mercury hit 52.6°C (126.6°F). Older hotter temperatures have been measured in Iran using automated stations, but these temperatures have been found to be overestimated.

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011, when the mercury hit 53.3°C (127.9°F) at Mitrabah. The previous record was 53.1°C in Sulaibiya on June 15, 2010. The Kuwait Meteorological Center confirmed the reading as authentic, though the temperature sensor had problems between 2009 and July 2010. Some temperatures as high as 53.5°C measured at the Kuwait City Airport during 2011 were in error. The 53.3°C (127.9°F) at Mitrabah thus represents:

1) The hottest temperature measured on Earth in 2011
2) New official national record for Kuwait
3) Second highest (undisputed) temperature ever recorded in Asia
4) Highest temperature ever recorded in an Arab country
5) Third hottest location in the planet together with Lake Havasu City, AZ (after Death
Valley, CA and Moenjodaro, Pakistan)
6) A new world record for August

China broke its national heat record for both uninhabited and inhabited locations on July 14, 2011, when the temperature soared to 50.2°C (122.4°F) at a automatic station near Adyngkol Lake (just south of Turfan), and 49.4°C (120.9°F) at the town of Tuyoq. A higher reading of 50.7°C at Aydingkol Mirabilite on 23 July 1986 has not been verified as official by the Chinese.

Republic of the Congo set a new all-time extreme heat record on March 8, 2011, when the temperature hit 39.2°C (102.6°F) at M'Pouya. Congo's previous all-time hottest temperature was 39.0°C (102.2°F) at Impfondo on May 14, 2005.

Zambia set an all-time national heat record of 109.0°F (42.8°C) at Mfuwe, on October 26, 2011, breaking the previous national record of 108.1°F (42.3°C) also set at Mfuwe, on November 17, 2010. A no longer functioning station at Lusitu, Zambia measured a higher temperature in November 1990, but surrounding stations were all about 10°C cooler, so the Lusitu 1990 reading is considered unreliable.

The French Southern and Antarctic Lands Territory tied its all-time hottest temperature record when Europa Island recorded 35.6°C (96.1°F) on November 12, 2011. The previous record was set at Juan de Nova Island on March 31, 1997.

Russia had its hottest temperature on record at a regular synoptic reporting staion on July 30, 2011, when the mercury hit 44.3°C (111.7°F) at Divnoe in Russia's Kalmykia Republic. Three hotter temperatures have been recorded at automated stations: 45.4°C in 2010 at a hydrological station at Utta, plus readings of 45°C at El'ton and 44.5°C at Verhjnky Baskunkak in August 1940.

A cool and smoky Florida January sunset.

New Coldest Temperature Record

For the first time since 2009, a new national extreme cold temperature record was set. Zambia set an all-time national cold record of -9°C (16°F) at Choma on June 27, 2011, breaking the previous national record of -8°C (18°F), set on July 10, 1898, at Nalisa Western Province.

Visit

Phillip's Natural World 2.0

and

Phillip's Natural World 3.0

for more science news and photography

Cold Florida Returns

2012-01-12T22:10:00.000-08:00

Warm days will come to an end this weekend. . . only briefly.
Temperatures will see-saw back to near 80° F (27° C) early next week.
Today temperatures were balmy. . .in the upper 70°s (25° C).

The sun has started its slow but relentless climb higher in the southern sky.
In Florida each day is almost a minute longer than the one prior until the end of January.
In February the days gain a minute and a half so that by February 29th our days will be
11 hours and 34 minutes long.

Despite the lengthening daylight hours cold fronts are still sweeping the Florida peninsula.
Tonight a pair of fronts will cross Florida. The second, strong cold front will pass over the
central peninsula overnight and bring daytime high temperatures down into the low
60°s F (11° C) tomorrow. It will be cold enough for a couple of nights that we'll have
to move in the plants -- again -- or cover them. While no freeze is forecast, damaging frosty
conditions are possible when the temperatures drop below 40° F (4.44° C).

We received virtually no rain from the past few cold fronts . . . and the two
cold fronts tonight will be no different. Our total rainfall from all the cold fronts this month
totals less than one tenth (.10) of an inch (2.54 mm).

These seagulls don't seem to mind the warmth of the Florida winter.
While the image hints at rain in the distance. . . its really only clouds caused
by the very warm air over relatively cooler waters surrounding Florida.

The air behind the second cold front will be much drier than what we've already been experiencing.

La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are to blame for our
worsening drought conditions. This is our 3rd straight year of exceptionally
dry winter conditions caused by La Niña. Read more about the phenomenon
at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center or on my Florida Dry Season Forecast page.

I always find it interesting that we are surrounded by water and yet we are
often desperate for rain. It is a fluke of thermodynamics, physics, and a warming planet
that the Florida Peninsula happens to be in a zone where drought is increasingly prevalent.

Some Brown Pelicans (Pelecanus occidentalis) with the recent moon.

The Wolf Moon occurred on Monday night (9th January).
The January full moon was so-named because Native Americans heard wolf
packs howling -- hungry -- outside their villages.
February's full moon will be the Snow Moon

Visit

Phillips Natural World 2.0

and

Phillip's Natural World 3.0

for photos of our ongoing renovations

Zodiacal Light and the Loop Current

2012-01-10T23:52:00.000-08:00

A cold front approaches the peninsula of Florida this morning. Deep convection occurring over the Gulf of Mexico's Loop Current is indicated by the blues and greens in the enhanced satellite image (above). That activity will likely die down as it approaches the cooler waters near the peninsula of Florida.

After this frontal system passes, skies should again be clear enough for plenty of evening stargazing and maybe even a glimpse of the zodiacal light.

The Loop Current feeds the Florida Current that transports significant amounts of heat poleward. It also transports surface waters of tropical origin into the Gulf of Mexico and is fed by the Caribbean Current and the Yucatan Current.

Zodiacal Light

The ghostly glow sometimes visible in the early evenings -- now through March -- is called zodiacal light.

Ancient Romans thought this spooky haze was due to far-off campfires below the horizon, while the ancient Greeks said that it must be caused by distant volcanic eruptions.

In the mid-16th century some speculated that the zodiacal light was the outstretched atmosphere of our sun.

Today we know that the zodiacal light is actually caused by sunlight scattering off countless grains of microscopic interplanetary dust spread out to beyond the orbit of Mars. The vast majority of this dust is concentrated within the plane of the inner solar system near the sun, making the grains' combined light appear along the ecliptic (the path in the sky each planet follows).

This faint light show is best seen during early spring and autumn, when the ecliptic line is nearly perpendicular to the horizon, as seen from the Northern Hemisphere. Its also best to be far from the lights of cities which produce a similar -- albeit artificial -- effect that we sometimes refer to as light pollution.

Abnormal Jet Stream Persists

2012-01-10T09:13:00.000-08:00

Houston Skyline with storm January 9, 2012

ODD JET STREAM CONFIGURATION PERSISTS

The nation's first major winter storm rumbled through Texas yesterday, bringing much appreciated heavy rains. The storm set also spawned the year's first two tornadoes, and brought record-setting heavy snows to West Texas. A wide swath of 3 - 5 inches of rain fell over much of Eastern Texas and Southern Louisiana, bringing isolated flooding to the drought-ravaged region. Houston, Texas received 4.06" of rain, breaking the previous record rainfall for the date of 2.54". It was the heaviest rainfall for Houston since the 4.87" that fell October 15, 2007. Drought-stricken Texas has now received the heaviest precipitation, relative to average, of any state in the U.S. during 2012, thanks to a highly abnormal jet stream pattern that is keeping the northern polar branch of the jet stream far to the north in Canada. The latest GFS model forecast predicts that this unusually dry pattern will persist for at least the next ten days, with the possibility of it breaking down during the last week of January.

Houston to New Orleans Radar estimates of rainfall January 9, 2012

Year's first tornado hits Texas City

The first tornado of 2012 touched down near 1pm CST in Texas City yesterday. The twister hit the Mall of the Mainland, damaging its roof and blowing out windows of parked cars. No injuries were reported, but the storm flooded the mall with 2 - 3 inches of water, and the mall remains closed today. A separate tornado affected Fort Bend County, Texas, but caused no damage or injuries. January is typically the quietest month of the year for tornadoes in the U.S.; during the past three years, we've averaged seventeen tornadoes in the month of January. A few more tornadoes are possible today, as NOAA's Storm Prediction Center predicts that a slight chance of severe weather will continue along the cold front of the storm that spawned yesterday's tornadoes. New Orleans, the Florida Panhandle, and most of Mississippi and Alabama are at risk of seeing a few tornadoes and damaging winds from severe thunderstorms.

Heavy snow in West Texas

sets all-time snow records for Midland

Yesterday's storm dumped 10.6 inches of snow on Midland, Texas, setting a record for the heaviest 1-day snow in city history. The previous record was the 9.8" that fell December 10 - 11, 1998. Midland's total snowfall for the winter of 2011 - 2012 is now 19.5". With winter not even half over, this smashes their previous seasonal snowfall record of 13.9", set in the winter of 1946 - 1947. Remarkably, Midland (population 111,000) has had more snow this year than America's four snowiest cities with population greater than 75,000--Syracuse, Rochester, and Buffalo (in New York's lake-effect snow belts), and Duluth, Minnesota.

Frosty windows in Alaska

Heavy snows hit Southern Alaska

If you're wondering where all of the snow that usually hits California's Sierras and the northern tier of U.S. states is going, the answer is Southern Alaska. This winter's highly abnormal jet stream pattern is slamming an unending series of heavy snow storms into Southern Alaska, where the snow totals are unbelievable.

A snow storm on Sunday dumped 15.2" of snow on Valdez, Alaska, bringing the total snow this season to 290.5". That's 24.2 feet (7.4 meters), and is 12 feet (3.7 meters) above what the city normal has by January 10. The Alaska state snowfall record is 974.1" (81.2', or 24.7 meters) at Thompson Pass in 1952-1953, just up the highway from Valdez. This record is beyond reach, since the site is no longer operating. The latest forecast for Valdez calls for another 10 - 15 inches of snow today.

Yesterday the Wolf Moon shined over a very dry Florida peninsula.

Warm and Dry Year for Florida in 2011

While temperatures at the start of 2011 were colder than normal. . . above normal temperatures dominated for much of the rest of 2011. The overall warmer weather pattern led to an average temperatures for 2011 that were among the ten warmest on record.

Severe to extreme drought conditions early in 2011 eased for some areas of the state as spring rains were heavier-than-normal, but then quickly drought conditions worsened into summer due to well below normal rainfall and one of the latest ever starts to the rainy season. Rainfall during the late summer (through October) eased drought conditions for some areas while others remain exceptionally dry.

We have received no rainfall, so far, in 2012. There is some hope that parts of the peninsula might receive rainfall tomorrow from a mild cold front approaching from the west.

Stephen Hawking Interview

2012-01-10T00:08:00.000-08:00

To mark his 70th birthday, physicist Professor Stephen Hawking answered a selection of questions from listeners to Radio 4's Today Programme.

Topics ranged from the origins of the universe to the prospects for extra terrestrial life and the impact on Einstein's theory of relativity should neutrinos be confirmed to travel faster than light.

ORIGINS OF THE UNIVERSE

1. Was there a "time" when there was "nothing"? - Roland, Lagos

The origin of the universe can be explained by the laws of physics, without any need for miracles or Divine intervention.

These laws predict that the universe was spontaneously created out of nothing in a rapidly expanding state.

This is called inflation because it is like the way prices in the shops go up at an ever increasing rate.

Time is defined only with the universe, so it makes no sense to talk about time before the universe began, it would be like asking for a point south of the South Pole.

FASTER THAN LIGHT?

2. What will be the impact on Einstein's theory of relativity if the neutrino is confirmed to be able to travel faster than the speed of light? - David Pointon, Maidstone

WHAT IS OPERA EXPERIMENT?

Oscillation Project with Emulsion-Racking Apparatus

Collaboration between Cern in Switzerland and Italy's Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso (LNGS)

Measures neutrino time-of-flight between Cern and LNGS

Einstein's theory of relativity predicts that nothing can travel faster than light.

Thus if the Opera experiment is correct and neutrinos do travel faster than light, then relativity theory is wrong.

However, I don't believe the Opera results, because they disagree with the detection of neutrinos from supernova SN1987A.

MULTIPLE UNIVERSES?

3. Some people hypothesise that what we call the universe may only be one of many. Is there any conceivable way that we could ever detect and study other universes if they exist? Is it even falsifiable? - Toby North, Essex

Our best bet for a theory of everything is M-theory [an extension of string theory].

One prediction of M-theory is that there are many different universes, with different values for the physical constants.

This might explain why the physical constants we measure seem fine-tuned to the values required for life to exist.

It is no surprise that we observe the physical constants to be finely-tuned.

If they weren't, we wouldn't be here to observe them.

One way of testing this would be to look for features in the cosmic microwave background radiation which would indicate the collision of another universe with ours in the distant past.

COLONISING SPACE

4. Do you think the human race will survive all potential disasters and eventually colonise the stars?- Matt Dotchon, Cardiff

It is possible that the human race could become extinct, but it is not inevitable.

I think it is almost certain that a disaster such as nuclear war or global warming will befall the Earth within a thousand years.

It is essential that we colonize space.

I believe that we will eventually establish self-sustaining colonies on Mars and other bodies in the Solar System although probably not within the next 100 years.

I am optimistic that progress in science and technology will eventually enable humans to spread beyond the Solar System and out into the far reaches of the Universe.

ALIEN CONTACT

5. What do you think the impact will be on humankind if Kepler 22-b [Earth-like planet found by Nasa's Kepler Space Telescope] does indeed support life?- CazCarpSnail via Twitter

The discovery of intelligent life elsewhere in the Universe would be the biggest scientific discovery ever.

But it would be very risky to attempt to communicate with an alien civilization.

If aliens decided to visit us then the outcome might be similar to when Europeans arrived in the Americas.

That did not turn out well for the Native Americans.

Snake Tongue

2012-01-07T23:52:00.000-08:00

While some snakes spend the winter gathered in dens, they disperse widely the rest of the year, making it difficult to find food or mates. To survive, snakes have evolved the forked tongue. They use it to collect scent molecules, which they process within special organs, to discern whether they are nearing a food item or a deadly foe. Male snakes can also judge whether a female snake is of the same species, how ready she is to mate, and—from the intensity of the scents on each fork—in which direction she is moving.

Florida Moves to Outlaw some Snake Species

By LIZETTE ALVAREZ

MIAMI — To live in South Florida is to make peace with flying cockroach behemoths, brigades of lizards that dart across walls (bedroom and otherwise) and frogs the size of cannonballs that loiter on driveways.

But even in a state as hospitable as this one to scaly, slithering creatures, enough is enough. Florida has the highest number of nonnative amphibians and reptile species, according to a recent University of Florida study, and some of them are obliterating native Floridian creatures.

Florida’s Congressional delegation is now trying to yank the welcome mat from at least some of these “exotic” species, namely nine kinds of large constrictor snakes. Setting aside their quarrels, Democrats and Republicans have jointly written to President Obama to get his administration to ban the importation and interstate trade of these snakes, which include the Burmese python, the boa constrictor and the green anaconda.

A federal Fish and Wildlife Service rule that would list the snakes as an “injurious species” has lingered for three years and still requires the approval of the Office and Management and Budget.

The snakes, particularly the large and powerful Burmese python, have proliferated in the Everglades, a trend that began in the 1980s but worsened after Hurricane Andrew destroyed several reptile houses in 1992. There are thousands of them in South Florida, although precise numbers are elusive. Today, the snakes are often sold by pet stores or online. They typically make it into the wild when they escape their homes or when owners release them because they can no longer care for them.

“South Florida has been invaded by nonnative wildlife, which disturbs our fragile ecosystem and preys on native species,” said the Nov. 22 letter to Mr. Obama, whose signers include Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz, a Democrat, and Representative Allen B. West, a Republican from a neighboring district, a pair who seldom agree on anything. “We are spending billions of dollars to restore the Everglades and if additional invasive snakes are allowed to establish themselves, the native wildlife will be decimated.”

Reticulated Python

Of the nine snakes on the list, Burmese pythons pose the largest threat, although Florida’s cold snap last year appeared to have diminished their numbers. Impressive because of their length — some here grow to 16 feet — Burmese pythons can eat all manner of small animals like birds, other snakes and rodents. In some cases, though, they overindulge.

In October, a work crew tending to plants in the area spotted a 16-foot Burmese python on a little island not too far from Everglades National Park. The python bulged cartoonishly in its middle. Turns out it had eaten a 76-pound female deer, which was discovered by biologists during a necropsy. (The python was killed, as regulations allow.)

In 2005, a python was found dead with a six-foot alligator jutting out of its mouth. More serious, a 2-year-old girl in Oxford was strangled in her bed in 2009 by a pet Burmese python after it got loose from its terrarium.

The snakes, which favor the warmth and humidity of South Florida, typically hide out in the brush. During mating season, which is occurring now, they often sun themselves on levies near canals.

“Until these animals are listed as injurious, they will continue to flow into the country unabated,” Senator Bill Nelson, a Florida Democrat who has led the effort, said in a separate letter to Mr. Obama. “As I have said for years, it is only a matter of time before a python in the Everglades eats an endangered Florida panther.”

The holdup with the rule appears to be mostly bureaucratic. But there is some concern that licensed Florida snake dealers would have to shut down their operations and, in desperation, would free more snakes.

Last year, Florida tightened the rules on six kinds of pythons and the Nile monitor lizard, making it against the law to buy them as pets. People who already owned them were allowed to keep them, with a permit. But only licensed reptile dealers, researchers and exhibitors can sell them out of state. The federal rule would ban the importation and interstate trade of these snakes altogether.

Florida wildlife officials have grown more adept at tracking and killing invaders in the past decade. The state now holds an amnesty day for pet owners who want to give up their snakes and giant lizards for adoption to other people or facilities that can care for them. There is a hot line to report sightings. And the Python Patrol, a team of snake-loving volunteers run by the Nature Conservancy, routinely scours the Everglades looking for pythons.

The weather, though, may turn out to be Florida’s strongest ally. The 2010 cold snap is believed to have killed off a number of the pythons, although no one knows how many. In 2009, 367 pythons were captured in the Everglades. This year, the total is 130.

The cold weather’s impact on their ability to reproduce is still unknown. Pythons can lay about 60 eggs at a time.

“It will take us another year to find that out,” said Scott Hardin, the exotic species coordinator for the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission. “But it takes twice as long to find a python now as before 2010, an indication they got scarcer.”

Some other species that may be loose in Florida . . .

Black Mamba

Named for the color of the inside of its mouth, the black mamba strikes repeatedly with venomous fangs. Widely considered the world’s deadliest snake, it continues to take human life in its native habitats in southern and eastern Africa, despite the development of antivenin. A resident of rocky hills and grasslands, the black mamba is also among the fastest snakes in the world, moving at up to 12.5 miles (20 kilometers) per hour.

Spectacled Cobra

The spectacled cobra, named for the eyeglass design on its flared hood (seen here), shares with the Russell's viper the infamy of causing more human deaths than any other snakes. Both are highly venomous and are found in the midst of vast populations of people in Southeast Asia. The spectacled cobra eats rats, poultry, and frogs and is known to enter houses when hunting.

Mozambique Spitting Cobra

The Mozambique spitting cobra can eject venom up to 8 feet (2.4 meters) away. It spits from any position, raised or on the ground, and often goes for the eyes. Untreated, its venom can cause blindness. Considered the most dangerous snake after the mamba, the spitting cobra sometimes feigns death to avoid molestation.

Anaconda

Awkward on land but agile in water, the anaconda lives in the swamps and tropical rain forests of South America. This green anaconda is the largest of several varieties; in fact, it is the largest snake in the world by weight, capable of reaching 550 pounds (250 kilograms) and measuring 12 inches (30 centimeters) in diameter. With flexible jaws and muscular bodies, these nonvenomous constrictors squeeze their prey to death and swallow it whole—whether it’s a bird, a wild pig, or a jaguar.

Desert Death Adder

Often colored in rusts and yellows to match its sand and rock surroundings, the desert death adder of western Australia lures prey by wiggling its thin black tail tip. When a lizard approaches, the snake strikes, delivering powerful venom. Australia is home to 17 of the world's most venomous snakes, including the death adder. Even so, snakes only cause one or two deaths a year there.

Green Tree Python

A green tree python, native to the rain forests of New Guinea and northeastern Australia, emerges from its shell. Most newborn snakes, which must free themselves from tough, leathery eggs, come armed with a single egg tooth, located on their head or snout. The egg tooth is used to tear through the shell and is discarded when the snake first sheds its skin. Thirty percent of snakes, however, give birth to live young. Egg-laying snakes usually live in warmer climates, which helps incubate their eggs.

King Cobra

King cobras avoid humans, but when cornered they can deliver enough venom in their bite to kill 20 people. They can also move forward while looking a 6-foot-tall (1.8-meter-tall) person in the eye, a third of their body raised up off the ground. Found in India, southern China, and Southeast Asia, king cobras are the only snakes in the world to build nests for their eggs.

Wacky Winter Weather

2012-01-06T23:53:00.000-08:00

The last couple of evenings I've been out at dusk trying to get some shots of the large fires burning to our northwest and northeast. . . and of the dry lake. Its really kind of shocking to see virtually no water remaining in this 700 acre lake. The white post in the foreground is the water level gauge . . . which has been sitting on dry ground for some time now. The smoky skies are creating colorful sunsets.

I couldn't get a shot of the smoke plumes as they are over-the-horizon so I pointed my camera skyward to see if I saw anything around the rising moon and I noticed tens of thousands of blackbirds flying south in mostly irregular lines, perhaps 100 yards wide (91 m). I suspect these are mostly Brewer's Blackbirds (Euphagus cyanocephalus) based on their voice but I think there were also some Red-winged Blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) in the massive flocks moving slowly south.

Above: I put the 300 mm lens on the camera to get a better look at the birds flying at perhaps 1000 feet overhead (305 m). I still couldn't see them very well. I thought this rather odd that so many birds would be moving south in January. Their migration is generally complete in October. . .but it has been extremely warm this winter aside from a few cool days we experienced this week.

Above: Viewed through a 1000 mm lens the number of birds is staggering. This image is distorted both by the lens and the fact that I was looking into the horizon at the flock flying away from me. I had to wonder if maybe the birds knew something about coming weather?

This abnormal winter weather has resulted in some other strange occurrences. Flowers are sprouting in January in New Hampshire, the Sierra Mountains in California are nearly snow-free, and lakes in much of Michigan still have not frozen. Yesterday in Fargo, North Dakota the temperature soared to 55° F (13° C), breaking a 1908 record for the warmest January day in recorded history. More than 99% of North Dakota has no snow on the ground (image above).

Over 95% of the country that normally has snow at this time of year has below-average snow cover. High temperatures in Nebraska yesterday were in the 60°s (17° C), more than 30 degrees F above average. Storm activity has been virtually absent from the entire United States this week with the jet stream bottled up far to the north in Canada.

This is likely the driest first week of January in United States recorded history. The warm and dry start to winter is not limited to the United States, all of continental Europe experienced well above-average temperatures during December as well.

JET STREAM PATTERN MOST EXTREME EVER RECORDED

The cause of this warm first half of winter is the most extreme configuration of the jet stream ever recorded, as measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation. The Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation are climate patterns in the Northern Hemisphere defined by fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure in the North Atlantic between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. Read more at "Arctic Oscillation Results in Warm Winter. . . so far."

This winter these weather patterns have caused the Icelandic Low to draw a strong south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward over the United States and Europe, as is normal.

FORECAST FOR REMAINDER OF JANUARY

So back to the blackbirds and the forecast. . . we will finally get the first major storm of 2012 in the United States early next week, when the computer models are predicting a low pressure system will develop over Texas and spread heavy rains along a swath from Eastern Texas to New England during the week. This storm should pull in a shot of cold air behind it late in the week, bringing a return to near-normal January temperatures to much of the country, and some snow to northern New England.

Beyond that, it is difficult to tell what the rest of winter may be like, since the Arctic Oscillation is difficult to predict more than a week or two in advance. The current predictions are for the current pattern to remain strong for at least another couple weeks resulting in very little snow and warmer-than-average temperatures.

This is going to exacerbate drought conditions in the south and likely cause the drought conditions to spread into the Midwest.

Florida is forecast to remain balmy with temperatures near 80° F (25° C) for the foreseeable future. . . and I guess we might be seeing a lot more flocks of birds like these blackbirds heading south. . . or perhaps back north at times of the year that we wouldn't expect them.

Cool Florida

2012-01-05T23:40:00.000-08:00

The cold air has mostly passed. . . but the evenings are still chilly over the Florida peninsula. In an odd fluke of topography, geography and thermodynamics it is colder over the southern peninsula tonight than in the north. We may see some isolated frost. . . but it is likely there will be frost on the outskirts of the Palm Beaches and Lake Okeechobee tonight.

Okeechobee is the largest freshwater lake in Florida and the 7th largest freshwater lake in the United States. . .covering some 730 square miles (1,900 sq. km). It has an average depth of only 9 feet (3 m). . . and I would suspect it is somewhat lower than that today due to the ongoing dry conditions. Okeechobee is easily picked out on any map or satellite image of Florida (below).

The most likely area for frost is over the southern peninsula as indicated in the graphic above.

By noon today it was again balmy, with temperatures in the low 70°s (21° C) common across the central peninsula. The flip-flop in temperatures will accelerate tomorrow with abnormally warm temperatures forecast for the foreseeable furture.

A Cormorant in the sunset. This bird is in the family Phalacrocoracidae. There are 40 species in the family and without a closer look I couldn't say for sure which one this was. It is an nice Florida shot, regardless.

Cold Florida

2012-01-03T23:59:00.000-08:00

It was a brisk January day in Florida yesterday, more like something one might expect to encounter in the northeast than over the central peninsula of Florida. The temperature struggled to reach 50° (10° C).

Add to the temperature the fact that there were some clouds and a stiff breeze out of the northwest and it was quite chilly.

I went for a long walk at dusk and despite wearing a wool sweater . . . I felt the cool air. I like to think I'm well-adapted to the cold but I did put my hood on before I finished my 1 hour walk.

There is little we can do to protect the tropical vegetation when temperatures are forecast to dip so low -- mid-20°s F (-3° C.) -- so we brought the plants we could into the houses and covered some of the rest, hoping that the covers might save the vegetation. This is our 3rd winter-in-a-row where we've had extremely cold temperatures preceded by extremely warm temperatures and dry conditions. All of these conditions are difficult for plants that did not evolve to live in such extremes. Some will survive. . . some will be severely damaged. . . others will perish.

At 2:00 am the freezing temperatures (whites and purples) were extending all the way down to Tampa Bay but not covering our area yet. This is an interesting graphic in that it shows how the relatively warm waters of the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico allow for only so much radiational cooling over the peninsula of Florida. As soon as the northwest winds cease -- tomorrow morning -- the warm marine air will return, quickly. The waters around Florida never get very cold -- relatively speaking -- and are one reason why our weather is generally warm through the winter months.

The National Weather Service had forecast freezing temperatures all the way south to the Palm Beaches this morning. So far that has not occurred. Just west of Cape Canaveral we're still about 36° F. (2° C). The coldest part of the night comes just before daybreak.

Florida Braces for Cold

2012-01-02T00:20:00.000-08:00

It was an extremely warm and smoky New Years Eve. Notice the clouds of thick smoke hugging the giant oak tree in the middle of the image. A fire lights the tree, while fireworks explode overhead. Click on this or any image to enlarge.

After an extremely warm and smoky New Years, Florida is bracing for an Arctic air mass that will override the state today and tomorrow.

The wind was blowing out of the north most of the weekend, pushing the smoke from this fire pit away from us. Regardless, the air is thick with a noxious smell of burnt creosote . . . as the forests begin to ignite.

New Year's Eve was warm and smoky across East Central Florida. We had little rain in December and fires are beginning to rage early this year. It was an even warmer New Year's Day with temperatures in the low 80°s F (28° C). The warm weather is going to be gone tomorrow.

A strong cold front will sweep through East Central Florida Monday Morning. A surge of brisk northwest winds will be followed by a secondary surge of cold air Tuesday morning. This will be the coldest air this winter season. By Tuesday morning we are expecting low temperatures in the high 20°s F (-2° C).

We're building frames to hold covers to protect the palm tree seen in the foreground of this shot. The tree is bigger than it might appear. Its about 8' tall and at least as wide. While the cold won't kill the tree it will leave it burnt and brown until mid-summer if we don't cover it and its sister located on the other side of the yard. The larger Queen Palms (with Christmas lights) will not burn or freeze until temperatures reach the low 20°s F (-5° C).

In addition to the coming cold and low wind chill temperatures the air mass behind the cold front will be very dry. The combination of strong, gusty winds and low relative humidities will increase the fire danger across the region this week.

This weather is beginning to become more normal for Florida as the climate changes. It is one of the paradoxes of a warming world. . . the mid-latitudes are becoming periodically colder and much drier. This our third-in-a-row dry winter due in large part to persistent La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

The warm crescent Moon on New Year's Eve in a 30 second exposure made to make the moon look fuller than it actually was.

Visit

PHILLIP'S NATURAL WORLD II

and

PHILLIP'S NATURAL WORLD III

for more photos

Florida Freeze Dates

2011-12-29T23:42:00.000-08:00

A lot of people are asking what happened to winter. We've experienced very little cool weather this winter, so far. Based on the data available we can posit that we should have had some freezing weather by December 17.

It looks more like a dusty fall than winter across most of Central Florida

Northern areas around the Ocala National Forest have a freeze almost every winter. Daytona Beach, Orlando and Cape Canaveral will have a freeze most years (80-90%). Melbourne will have a freeze in about 75% of winters while the Treasure Coast will experience a freeze in about 60% of winters.

Significant freezes (temperatures in the mid-upper 20°s F (-3° C) or colder) occur normally in the latter half of December through January. There are many notable freezes in the historical record that occurred around Christmas when the sun angle and daylight are lowest.

The most significant freezes recorded occurred on January 18-22 in 1977.

There are plenty of winter birds. . .but no winter weather. This cardinal is surely asking "who stopped the rain?"

We are weeks past the median (half the years earlier/half the years later) of the first freeze for our area with no significant cold weather.

The table below lists the dates* of the earliest and latest freezes recorded

	Earliest Freeze	Latest Freeze	Period of Record
Daytona Beach	Nov 16 (1940)	Apr 14 (1940)	1923-2011
Deland	Nov 5 (1910)	Apr 11 (1996)	1909-2011
Lisbon	Nov 4 (1966)	Apr 17 (1962)	1959-2011
Clermont	Nov 24 (1970)	Mar 15 (1993)	1948-2011
Orlando	Nov 21 (1914, 1937)	Mar 17 (1916)	1894-2011
Kissimmee	Nov 24 (1970)	Mar 4 (1980)	1959-2011
Titusville	Nov 16 (1940)	Mar 22 (1960)	1914-2011
Melbourne	Nov 24 (1970)	Mar 4 (1943)	1937-2011
Vero Beach	Nov 25 (1970)	Mar 4 (1980)	1943-2011
Ft Pierce	Nov 25 (1970)	Mar 15 (1993)	1901-2011

* Note that the period of record is different for each site and all except Daytona Beach have some missing data. Note too that less than 100 years of data exist for all sites in the area except Orlando.

FORECAST

The forecast is for above normal temperatures for New Years as well. The normal high temperature for New Years Day is around 70° F (21° C). The forecast is for New Years to be near 80° F (26° C).

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center continues to forecast worsening drought conditions across Florida with well-below average rainfall due to La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

There isn't enough data to explain definitively why one year is warmer than another, but there is increasing evidence that La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are causing significant drought conditions across Florida (for a 3rd straight winter), and that the Arctic Oscillation is likely involved in cutting us off from cooler air masses.

Why La Niña is occurring so frequently is likely of interest to scientists studying climate change, because its impacts are world-wide and significant.

Moon and Venus

2011-12-29T00:15:00.000-08:00

I've been playing around with long exposures. . . trying to get a nice shot of the Christmas lights with the Moon and Venus. This was one of my better efforts. The Moon appears full though it is currently only about 23% Full or a Waxing Crescent. Venus is below and to the left of the moon. Click on the image for a larger view.

This is a longer exposure, a little later in the evening, and a day later. Venus is much lower in the sky.

Here another palm tree with lights got in the way of the shot I wanted. Venus sits atop the tallest palm tree, not really visible in the shot.

This is Venus and the Moon without anything in the foreground. In the long exposure the Moon appears full, but is not.

This is a close up of just the Moon as it would appear to the naked eye.

I lost Venus in this shot but still got some of the effect of the Moon.

Tonight I covered the largest of the palms with car covers to protect them from frost.
We're forecast to have low temperatures down to around 40° F (4½° C) tonight which generally results in heavy frost. We currently are experiencing cool temperatures coupled with an extremely dry air mass and high pressure -- with resultant calm winds -- which are perfect conditions for frost formation. Frost will damage a lot of the tropical foliage. The covers protect the plants by giving the frost a different surface on which to adhere.
The cool weather is only supposed to last a couple days, then we're to be back around 80° F (26° C) for New Years Day.

December Sunsets

2011-12-26T23:53:00.000-08:00

Some recent December sunsets.
The unusual warmth continues over the Florida peninsula. Read more about this weather pattern and what might be causing it at "Arctic Oscillation Results in Warm Winter."

A large number of birds are traveling into our area. Perhaps they know something we don't?
This evening I spotted a flock of perhaps 200 White Ibis heading south. . . but before I could snap a photo they were gone over the horizon. Follow this LINK to the Winter Birds of Florida.

A spectacular -- and warm -- sunset. Today the temperatures topped out in the low 80°s (27° C). We are hoping for a cool down later this week so that we might complete some outdoor projects. We attempted to do some outdoor work today but the heat and the voracious bugs halted our progress.

Near Melbourne, Florida.

A hay rake frames a recent sunset.

A fiery sky

Temperatures over Florida are forecast to drop into the low 70°s F (21° C). . . later in the week. . . but the cool weather is not forecast to last long.

Sunset on one of Florida's inland waterways.

A windmill with an orange sky. The painfully dry weather continues over Florida though there have been a few clouds from time-to-time. Most likely we will not experience any significant rainfall until next June, according to the latest climate predictions by NOAA.

Political Reality Slows Climate Studies

2011-12-26T22:50:00.000-08:00

Joplin, Missouri suffered severe damage from a tornado in May. Scientists say data suggest an increase in tornadoes as the climate warms, but no rigorous analyses have been conducted.

Harsh Political Reality Slows Climate Studies Despite Extreme Year

By JUSTIN GILLIS

At the end of one of the most bizarre weather years in American history, climate research stands at a crossroads.

Scientists say they could, in theory, do a much better job of answering the question “Did global warming have anything to do with it?” after extreme weather events like the drought in Texas and the floods in New England.

But for many reasons, efforts to put out prompt reports on the causes of extreme weather are essentially languishing. Chief among the difficulties that scientists face: the political environment for new climate-science initiatives has turned hostile, and with the federal budget crisis, money is tight.

And so, as the weather becomes more erratic by the year, the public is left to wonder what is going on.

When 2010 ended, it seemed as if people had lived through a startling year of weather extremes. But in the United States, if not elsewhere, 2011 has surpassed that.

A typical year in this country features three or four weather disasters whose costs exceed $1 billion each. But this year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has tallied a dozen such events, including wildfires in the Southwest, floods in multiple regions of the country and a deadly spring tornado season. And the agency has not finished counting. The final costs are certain to exceed $50 billion.

“I’ve been a meteorologist 30 years and never seen a year that comes close to matching 2011 for the number of astounding, extreme weather events,” Jeffrey Masters, a co-founder of the popular Web site Weather Underground, said last month. “Looking back in the historical record, which goes back to the late 1800s, I can’t find anything that compares, either.”

Many of the individual events in 2011 do have precedents in the historical record. And the nation’s climate has featured other concentrated periods of extreme weather, including severe cold snaps in the early 20th century and devastating droughts and heat waves in the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s.

A blizzard hobbled Chicago in February, 2011.

But it is unusual, if not unprecedented, for so many extremes to occur in such a short span. The calamities in 2011 included wildfires that scorched millions of acres, extreme flooding in the Upper Midwest and the Mississippi River Valley and heat waves that shattered records in many parts of the country. Abroad, massive floods inundated Australia, the Philippines and large parts of Southeast Asia.

A major question nowadays is whether the frequency of particular weather extremes is being affected by human-induced climate change.

Climate science already offers some insight. Researchers have proved that the temperature of the earth’s surface is rising, and they are virtually certain that the human release of greenhouse gases, mainly from the burning of fossil fuels, is the major reason. For decades, they have predicted that this would lead to changes in the frequency of extreme weather events, and statistics show that has begun to happen.

For instance, scientists have long expected that a warming atmosphere would result in fewer extremes of low temperature and more extremes of high temperature. In fact, research shows that about two record highs are being set in the United States for every record low, and similar trends can be detected in other parts of the world.

Likewise, a well-understood physical law suggests that a warming atmosphere should hold more moisture. Scientists have directlymeasured the moisture in the air and confirmed that it is rising, supplying the fuel for heavier rains, snowfalls and other types of storms.

“We are changing the large-scale properties of the atmosphere — we know that beyond a shadow of a doubt,” said Benjamin D. Santer, a leading climate scientist who works at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California. “You can’t engage in this vast planetary experiment — warming the surface, warming the atmosphere, moistening the atmosphere — and have no impact on the frequency and duration of extreme events.”

But if the human contribution to heat and precipitation is clear, scientists are on shakier ground analyzing many other events. Tornadoes, the deadliest weather disaster to hit the country this year, present a particularly thorny case.

On their face, weather statistics suggest that tornadoes are becoming more numerous as the climate warms. But tornadoes are small and hard to count, and scientists have little confidence in the accuracy of older data, which means they do not know whether to believe the apparent increase. Likewise, the computer programs they use to analyze and forecast the climate do not do a good job of representing events as small as tornadoes.

Some scientists have offered theories about how increasing heat and moisture may have made tornado outbreaks more likely, but these have not yet been tested in rigorous analyses. Many other types of extreme weather fall into this category, with scientists lacking a strong basis for attributing increases to human activity, or for discounting a human effect.

The question can sometimes be answered with focused studies of a specific weather event, but these are often finished years afterward. Lately, scientists have been discussing whether they can do a better job of analyzing events within days or weeks, not years.

“It’s clear we do have the scientific tools and the statistical wherewithal to begin answering these types of questions,” Dr. Santer said.

But doing this on a regular basis would probably require new personnel spread across several research teams, along with a strong push by the federal government, which tends to be the major source of financing and direction for climate and weather research. Yet Washington is essentially frozen on the subject of climate change.

This year, when the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tried to push through a reorganization that would have provided better climate forecasts to businesses, citizens and local governments, Republicans in the House of Representatives blocked it. The idea had originated in the Bush administration, was strongly endorsed by an outside review panel and would have cost no extra money. But the House Republicans, many of whom reject the overwhelming scientific consensus about the causes of global warming, labeled the plan an attempt by the Obama administration to start a “propaganda” arm on climate.

In an interview, Jane Lubchenco, the director of NOAA, rejected that claim and said her agency had been deluged with information requests regarding future climate risks. “It’s truly unfortunate that we are not allowed to become more effective and efficient in delivering that information,” she said.

NOAA does finance research to understand the causes of weather extremes, as do the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy. But with the strains on the federal budget, Dr. Lubchenco said, “it’s going to be more and more challenging to devote resources to many of our research programs.”

Some steps are being taken. Peter A. Stott, a leading climate scientist in Britain, has been pressing colleagues on both sides of the Atlantic to develop a robust capability to analyze weather extremes in real time. He is part of a group that expects to publish, next summer, the first complete analysis of a full year of extremes, focusing on 2011.

In an interview, Dr. Stott said the goal was to get to a point where “the methodologies are robust enough that you can do it in a kind of handle-turning way.”

But he added that it was important to start slowly and establish a solid scientific foundation for this type of work. That might mean that some of the early analyses would not be especially satisfying to the public.

“In some cases, we would say we have a confident result,” Dr. Stott said. “We may in some cases have to say, with the current state of the science, it’s not possible to make a reliable attribution statement at this point.”

Arctic Oscillation Results in Warm Winter . . . so far

2011-12-26T15:49:00.000-08:00

Temperatures at dusk on December 26, across the Florida peninsula. The green colors indicate cooler air, still held back far to our north. The yellows and oranges generally indicate temperatures in the 70°s F (22°-25° C). It was a very warm Christmas Day as well with temperatures that reached into the low 80°s (28° C) across the Florida peninsula.

Warm and Very Dry Conditions Persist

Large portions of the eastern half of the United States have been more than 4° F above average so far in December, with temperatures averaging 8° F above average over portions of North Dakota. This is quite a switch from the previous two winters, which were both much colder and snowier than average. All three winters were strongly influenced by La Niña conditions in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, so La Niña does not explain the difference year-to-year.

The likely reason for the December warmth this year and the cold and snowy December of 2010 and 2009 is a weather pattern known as the Arctic Oscillation.

The maps show temperature patterns in late fall/early winter of 2010 (left) and 2011 (right). Places that were up to 7° F warmer than the 1981-2000 average are dark red, while places that were up to 7° cooler than average are dark blue. Locations where temperatures were near the long-term average are white.

One of the biggest influences on United States winter climate is the Arctic Oscillation, a natural seesawing of atmospheric pressure between the Arctic and the mid-latitudes of the North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans.

The oscillation is not predictable far in advance.

So far this winter, the Arctic Oscillation has been in its positive phase, favoring a milder winter in the eastern United States. The winter of 2009-2010 had the most extreme negative Arctic Oscillation since record keeping began in 1865. Similarly, in winter 2010-2011 an extreme negative Arctic Oscillation developed. This year the pattern is completely opposite.

In many respect the maps indicate opposed conditions. Last year, the U.S. South and East were cooler than average, while Greenland was unusually warm. This year the pattern is reversed. This complete flip-flop in temperature patterns extends across the Atlantic and into Europe. The arrangement of opposites isn't a coincidence: it reveals how different locations in the Northern Hemisphere are connected through the Arctic Oscillation.

Temperature forecast for winter 2012. Most of the southeast USA will likely experience above average temperatures for the remainder of winter. La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific -- present for the 3rd year in a row -- will generally cause the Pacific jet stream to meander north more frequently than normal, guiding winter storms into the norther tier of the country.

Negative Phase; much colder over USA and Europe

In the fall and winter of 2010, the Arctic Oscillation was persistently and often strongly negative -- the lowest it has been in the past 60 years. During the negative phase of the pattern air pressure and polar jet stream patterns tend to draw Arctic air down into the eastern United States. With this cold air in place, passing storms are more likely to generate heavy snow and colder air is more likely to reach much further south. A return flow of milder air from the mid-latitudes then warms Greenland and eastern Canada. Across the Atlantic, the polar jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual over Europe, favoring chillier than usual winters.

Positive Phase; much warmer over USA and Europe

During the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (this winter, so far) air pressure and wind patterns tend to drive winter storms on more northerly tracks.

Typical this winter. . . a weak cool front draped across the Florida peninsula has brought only limited showers to isolated locations. . . and not much cooler air. Temperatures today north of the cool front were in the high 70°s F (25° C) and no rainfall occurred.

Location is Important

The Arctic Oscillation influences winter temperatures more strongly in some places than in others and big differences from average temperature can occur anywhere for reasons other than changes in the Arctic Oscillation (including El Niño and La Niña, as well as random variation).

For example, the phase of the Arctic Oscillation by itself doesn't have a strong influence on winter temperatures in most of Alaska, but it can modulate the influence of El Niño and La Niña.

Winter precipitation forecast for USA -- strongly influenced by La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean. The peninsula of Florida will likely see worsening drought conditions until the rainy season begins again in June of 2012. These conditions will likely exacerbate existing drought conditions (dry lakes, water shortages, etcetera).

Arctic Oscillation Defined

The Arctic Oscillation and its close counterpart -- the North Atlantic Oscillation -- are climate patterns that are defined by fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. The Arctic Oscillation is one of the oldest known climate oscillations. Seafaring Scandinavians described the weather pattern centuries ago.

The latest computer model predictions show that the positive Arctic Oscillation pattern will continue for at least the next ten days. Real winter conditions won't arrive in the United States until -- at earliest -- the end of the first week of January.

Temperature departure from average for November 2011.

In the contiguous United States, November ranked as the 25th warmest in the 117-years that records have been kept. Thirteen states in the Northeast and Upper Midwest recorded a top-ten warmest November, and no states had a top-ten coldest November.

Brown colors indicate well below normal rainfall predicted for already drought ravaged Texas and Florida.

La Niña continues

A borderline weak/moderate La Niña event continues in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, where sea surface temperatures were approximately 1.0° C below average during the first half of December. The impacts of La Niña on United States weather are well-defined.

It is likely that the drought in the South will continue and worsen along with above average temperatures. The Northwest can expect cooler than average temperatures, as well as the potential for another winter with heavy snowpack across the western United States.

Arctic Sea Ice extent yesterday.

Arctic Sea Ice 3rd Lowest on Record

Arctic sea ice extent was at its third lowest on record in November (behind 2006 and 2010), according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Sea ice records date to 1979.

Mistletoe Shortage

2011-12-22T22:54:00.000-08:00

Just in time for the season. . . I found a lot of Oak Mistletoe, within reach. . .on a path near the St. Johns River.

My jacket is for protection from bugs. . . not cold. It was 82° F (28° C) this afternoon.

Mistletoe is the common name for a group of obligate hemi-parasitic plants in the order Santalales, family Viscaceae (Christmas Misteltoe) that grow attached to and within the branches of trees or shrubs. The most common species in Florida is Oak Mistletoe (Phoradendron leucarpum).

Hemi-parasites are plants that are parasitic under natural conditions but are also photosynthetic to some degree. Hemiparasites may only obtain water and mineral nutrients from the host plant. These really are remarkable plants. . . parasitism has evolved rarely in the plant kingdom -- perhaps only 9 times. The parasitic mistletoe have evolved independently five times.

Its easy to spot mistletoe this time of year, especially in deciduous trees that have already lost their leaves. The big green boughs are lush and green (as they will be year round). Its harder to see the mistletoe in trees like Live Oak that will not push off their old leaves for another couple months.

Mistletoe plants grow on a wide range of host trees, and commonly reduce their host tree's growth but rarely kill the host. The plants are thought to be spread mostly in bird feces. The plant is an important keystone species in many forest ecosystems.

In cultures across pre-Christian Europe, mistletoe was seen as a representation of divine male essence (and thus romance, fertility, and vitality).

While we still have plenty of the plant here in East Central Florida there is a shortage in other parts of North America due to the pervasive drought. The article below details the problems shoppers in New York City have had finding the plant. Had they only asked I could have sent them boxes. . .

Mistletoe Shortage Across America

By EMILY S. RUEB

THE tree is glittering in the living room, and garlands are plentiful throughout the house. But people searching for another holiday standard, mistletoe, will be hard pressed this year to find a decent-looking sprig, if they’re able to find any at all.

There are many species of mistletoe. But the kissing kind that is native to the United States, a semiparasitic plant that grows wild in certain parts of the country, is scarce this year because of a relentless drought in Texas and adverse weather elsewhere.

The branches normally have smooth green leaves and small white berries, but in New York City, the few branches that have arrived are so anemic that they just aren’t worth the high price tag, many sellers say.

Jena Min, 36, the owner of a Brooklyn boutique and gallery called Condemned to Be Free, recently strolled the flower shops along 28th Street in Manhattan with her husband, Gunther Romer, and searched high and low for fresh mistletoe to decorate her retail space.

“I had a hard time finding even the fake stuff,” said Ms. Min, whose shop is in Boerum Hill.

The story is the same in other places. One of the country’s largest suppliers, Tiemann’s Mistletoe in Priddy, Tex., has halted shipments for the first time in its 58-year history.

“If you have been kissed under the mistletoe and it was bought, there’s a 95 percent chance it came from us,” said Robert Tiemann, the owner.

But not this year.

“There’s not enough mistletoe in the State of Texas to run a commercial operation,” said Mr. Tiemann, who is known as Speedy.

He estimated that 60 to 70 percent of the plants in the state have been compromised by the drought, which has been the worst in Texas history. Many retailers and wholesalers in New York have had to reach out to suppliers as far west as California to get the plant.

But even before this year, mistletoe seemed to be losing its allure. Indeed, some (perhaps especially those who have had to dodge unwanted advances beneath it) are unmoved by this year’s shortage.

“It’s an ugly little bush,” said Gardel Prudent of Gardel’s Greene Garden in Fort Greene, Brooklyn, who will not carry mistletoe this year.

THE rise in prices brought on by the drought apparently sealed the plant’s fate in Mr. Prudent’s eyes. He said it would have cost him about $5 for a finger-size sprig. With the minimal markup that he could charge, he said, he wouldn’t have made any profit.

Craig Core, the owner of Suburban Wholesale Florists and Supplies in Chatham, N.J., said that even before the drought, he had noticed a decline in sales for what he describes as a “cheap novelty item.”

“We wind up throwing it away,” said Mr. Core of the leftovers he has at season’s end. “People would rather buy a wreath or a plant than a gray berry.”

But Mr. Core will not have that problem this year. For the first time, his 50-year-old business, which distributes to hundreds of retail florists in the area, is not carrying the plant. Because he makes so little money on mistletoe, he said, he decided not to stock even the fake kind.

Charlotte Moss, the designer, pointed out that artificial mistletoe can be “unbelievably real.” But Ms. Moss, who remembers shimmying up a tree in her native Virginia to get fresh mistletoe, said that she still prefers the actual thing.

“There are a lot of things I can handle that are faux, but somehow for something with a tradition, it should be the real deal,” she said. “Otherwise the kiss doesn’t have the same impact.”

Many Mistletoe plants in a Live Oak (Quercus virginiana) tree that is beginning to lose some of its leaves. The Mistletoe is the dark green boughs at the top of the tree canopy. I've noticed the Live Oaks dropping their leaves months early this year. . . likely due to the relentless drought coupled with the extremely warm temperatures. Normally the new leaves would emerge around the first of March.

But like Ms. Min, Ms. Moss was unable to find a good batch of real mistletoe this year, and so she had none for the elaborate holiday display at her Upper East Side town house. Still, she thinks the plant will be back next year — at a higher price.

“Things have their cycles,” she said. “Buy your mistletoe futures now.”

The United States Department of Agriculture does not gather data on mistletoe. And there are few details readily available about the overall business of harvesting mistletoe, which characteristically grows on trees and sometimes must be shot with a gun to be retrieved or pulled down with a long pole and hook.

Years ago, the vibrant green leaves and pearly berries brightened graves and farmhouses at wintertime in places like Oklahoma, where it became the state flower at the turn of the last century. But no longer.

Michael George, a Manhattan florist who recently covered a pair of three-feet-wide globes in greens and artificial mistletoe to promote a dating Web site, said the plant is not as crucial to romance as it once was.

“In 1901 you needed to be under the mistletoe to steal a kiss in public,” said Mr. George. “In 2011, you can do just about anything you want in public and it goes unnoticed.” When asked about the shortage, Mr. George was confident there would be no love lost.

“I don’t think it will affect the number of kisses,” he said.

Many people don’t know what real mistletoe looks like, even if they think they do.

During her lunch break on Monday, Ines Ruiz, 60, browsed International Garden, a florist in Manhattan’s flower district. Nodding to what she thought was mistletoe, she said she might buy some for her house.

“My family’s coming over, maybe I’ll just put it up and make everybody kiss each other,” she said, giggling.

But the salesman corrected her: she was looking at holly.

When he showed her the mistletoe, a puny cluster of a few dime-size leaves in a plastic bag, she was shocked.

“No, I don’t like it like that,” she said. “Why is it all broken?”

“It’s more expensive this year,” added Nelson Argueta, the salesman.

Mr. Argueta also told her she would have to hang the mistletoe in its plastic bag to prevent the plant from disintegrating.

Ms. Ruiz decided not to make the purchase.

Visit

PHILLIP'S NATURAL WORLD II

and

PHILLIP'S NATURAL WORLD III

for more photos

Winter Solstice

2011-12-19T23:29:00.000-08:00

A bonfire at sunset

The winter solstice will occur on December 22 at 5:30 am Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). Also known as the December solstice in the northern hemisphere and the summer solstice in the southern hemisphere.

The winter solstice occurs when the sun reaches its most southernly declination of -23.5 degrees. Put another way, it is when the North Pole is tilted 23.5 degrees away from the sun.

Above a latitude of 66.5° N all locations will be in darkness while locations below a latitude of 66.5° S will receive 24 hours of daylight.

Along the Tropic of Capricorn in the southern hemisphere the sun will be directly overhead. This is also the longest day of the year for those living south of the Tropic of Capricorn. Those traveling south of the Antarctic Circle towards the South Pole will experience the midnight sun.

Conversely, for those of us living north of the Tropic of Cancer. December 22 will mark the day of the year with the least hours of daylight.

The solstice makes for some interesting sun shots as the sun is so low on the horizon. On December 22 we will experience only a little over 10 hours of daylight and the sun will rise to only 38.1° around 12:30 in the afternoon.

After December 22 the days will gradually lengthen in the Northern Hemisphere and the sun angle will slowly climb. By June 21, 2012 the sun will rise to 84.9° (nearly directly overhead) and our days will be almost 14 hours long.

Despite the low sun angles and short days temperatures have remained quite warm across the Florida peninsula through December in sharp contrast to what we experienced the past two Decembers.

Some marine showers are brushing the Florida east coast today. Otherwise it is an extremely warm and sunny day.

Though the calendar shows today to be the first day of winter, temperatures around East Central Florida continue to be unseasonably warm with afternoon highs today in the low 80°s F (28° C).

The warm weather this December (over Florida) is currently forecast to continue through the New Years holiday.

The solstice may have been a special moment of the annual cycle of the year even during neolithic times. Astronomical events, which during ancient times controlled the mating of animals, planting of crops, and metering of winter reserves, show how various cultural mythologies and traditions have arisen.

Neolithic and Bronze Age archaeological sites such as Stonehenge in Britain and Newgrange in Ireland appear to have been constructed to honor the solstice. They set the primary axes of their monuments on sight-lines pointing to the winter solstice (Newgrange) and the winter solstice sunset (Stonehenge).

The solstice may have been immensely important because communities were not certain of living through the winter. Starvation was common in winter (between January and April).

Sunrise at Stonehenge on the winter solstice

Direct observation of the solstice by amateurs is difficult because the sun moves too slowly at either solstice to determine its specific day, let alone the instant it occurs.

Before the scientific revolution many forms of observances, astronomical, symbolic or ritualistic evolved according to the beliefs of various cultures, many of which are still practiced today.

More about winter solstice celebrations LINK.

Visit

PHILLIP'S NATURAL WORLD II

and

PHILLIP'S NATURAL WORLD III

for more photos

Arctic Melting affects Weather

2011-12-19T10:38:00.000-08:00

A high-amplitude jet stream pattern observed over the United States last week (December 13, 2011). Instead of blowing west-to-east, the jet stream was contorted into a southward-bulging trough of low pressure that brought cold temperatures and a snow storm to Southern California, and a northwards-bulging ridge of high pressure that brought record warm temperatures to portions of the eastern USA. The axis of the jet stream is marked by the strongest winds (green and light blue colors) at the top of the lower atmosphere (200-300 mb pressure level).

Arctic sea ice loss may be affecting the large-scale atmospheric circulation, slowing its winds and increasing the tendency for contorted high-amplitude atmospheric loops. Such loops in the upper level wind pattern (and associated jet stream) increase the probability of persistent weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere, potentially leading to extreme weather due to longer-duration cold spells, snow events, heat waves, flooding events, and drought conditions.

It is of interest to note that this December temperatures in Florida continue in the low 80°s F (27° C) and the persistent drought shows no signs of relenting.

Arctic sea ice is now 40% less extensive than it was when satellite records began in 1979.
See University of Illinois Cryosphere Today

Summertime Arctic sea ice loss: 40% since 1980

The Arctic has experienced a stunning amount of sea ice loss in recent years, due to melting and unfavorable winds that have pushed large amounts of ice out of the region. 40% of the sea ice was missing in September 2007, compared to September of 1980. That represents an area equivalent to about 44% of the contiguous United States or 71% of the non-Russian portion of Europe. Such a large area of open water likely causes significant impacts on weather patterns, due to the huge amount of heat and moisture that escapes from the exposed ocean into the atmosphere over a multi-month period following the summer melt.

The extent of Arctic sea ce loss in the summer July-August-September 2007 was about 1.4 million square miles. A similar amount was 'missing' in 2011. For comparison, the lost ice coverage (orange colors) was equal to an area about 44% of the United States or 71% of the non-Russian portion of Europe.

Arctic sea ice loss slows the Jet Stream

Recent scientific analysis indicates that since 1948 the extra heat in the Arctic infall and winter have caused the Arctic atmosphere to expand. As a result, the difference in temperature between the Arctic (60-80° N.) and the mid-latitudes (30-50° N.) has fallen significantly. It is the difference in temperature that drives the powerful jet stream winds that control much of our weather. The speed of fall and winter west-to-east upper-level winds circling the North Pole has decreased by 20% over the past decade in response to the extra warmth in the Arctic. This slow-down of the upper-level winds circling the pole has been linked to a Hot Arctic-Cold Continents pattern that has brought cold, snowy winters to the Eastern USA and Western Europe the past two winters.

Arctic sea ice loss may increase troughs and ridges

The jet stream generally blows from west to east over the northern mid-latitudes, with an average position over the central U.S. in winter and southern Canada in summer. The jet stream marks the boundary between cold polar air to the north and warm subtropical air to the south, and is the path along which rain and snow-bearing low pressure systems ride. Instead of blowing straight west-to-east, the jet stream often contorts itself into a wave-like pattern. Where the jet stream bulges northwards into a ridge of high pressure, warm air flows far to the north. Where the jet loops to the south into a trough of low pressure, cold air spills southwards. The more extreme these loops to the north and south are--the amplitude of the jet stream--the slower the waves move eastward, and consequently, the more persistent the weather conditions tend to be. A high-amplitude jet stream pattern (more than 1000 miles or 1610 km in distance between the bottom of a trough and the peak of a ridge) is likely to bring abnormally high temperatures to the region under its ridge, and very cold temperatures and heavy precipitation underneath its trough.

The mathematics governing atmospheric motions requires that higher-amplitude flow patterns move more slowly. Thus, any change to the atmosphere that increases the amplitude of the wave pattern will make it move more slowly, increasing the length of time extreme weather conditions persist. During the early 1960s, a natural pattern in the atmosphere called the Arctic Oscillation increased the amplitude of the winter jet stream pattern over North America and the North Atlantic by more than 100 miles, increasing the potential for long-lasting weather conditions. The amplitude of the winter jet fell over 100 miles (161 km) during the late 1960s, remained roughly constant during the 1970s - 1990s, then increased by over 100 miles again during the 2000s. The latest increase in wave amplitude did not appear to be connected to the Arctic Oscillation, but did appear to be connected to the heating up of the Arctic due to sea ice loss.

A warmer Arctic allows ridges of high pressure to build farther to the north. Since temperatures farther to the south near the bases of the troughs are not changing much by comparison, the result is that the amplitude of the jet stream grows as the ridges of high pressure push farther to the north. Thus it is possible that Arctic sea ice loss and the associated increases in jet stream amplitude could be partially responsible for some of the recent unusual extreme weather patterns observed in the Northern Hemisphere.

West-to-east jet stream winds speeds at 500 mb (appx. 18,000 feet or 5,600 meters) in the mid latitudes (40-60° N) over North America between 1948 and 2010. During fall (October-December) and winter (January-March) jet stream winds weakened by about 20%.

Disney Hollywood Lights

2011-12-18T00:00:00.000-08:00

We spent an evening touring the Walt Disney World Hollywood Studio Christmas Lights

Disney likes to say this is the "happiest place on earth"

I'd have to argue that it is perhaps the most obnoxious place on earth. . .

Click on the images to enlarge. . . that's artificial snow falling from the tops of the buildings.

One could also call this the most crowded place on earth. . .

I liked a few of the smaller detail touches like this peace symbol in a window. . . the details were mostly lost in extreme noise and the pulsating throng of people being shoved along.

Another nice touch. . . a basketball was moving in and out of this hoop that was on a side street. I took shelter from the ebbing hoard of humanity at this spot for a few minutes. . . trying to catch some fresh air.

. . . did I say the loudest place on earth?

How about the most expensive place on earth? $18 to park, $79 entrance fee. . . $5 for a soda. . .

We went on complimentary tickets so I can't complain about the price. . .

More artificial snow emnating from the rooftop to the left. It was a very warm weekend with temperatures in the 80°s F (27° C). . .so the snow didn't make it very far before melting. . . add to the temperature the fact that there were perhaps 10,000 people jammed into the streets below. . .and the snow didn't have a chance.

All of these lights were moving to music . . . and my cameras are a bit to sensitive for this type of photography. . . but you can get the idea of what it was like from these images.

To see more of my photos of Disney's Hollywood Lights

go to

PHILLIP'S NATURAL WORLD III

Christmas Past

2011-12-15T23:03:00.000-08:00

A plane created a comet-like streak in the sky on this long, over-exposed look at the Christmas lights. The crescent moon in the background appears full due to the 60-second exposure. Those are 5-gallon pickle jars filled with LED lights atop tall 4x4 poles.

The neighbor burned a huge pile of my debris tonight.

The lights with the fire in the background.

Dew Drops and Sunsets

2011-12-14T23:29:00.000-08:00

We're having really warm weather this December. Temperatures in the low 80°s F. (27° C.) have been typical with sunny days and foggy nights. The warmth often brings a thick layer of fog off of the Atlantic Ocean in the evenings which coats everything with tiny dew drops.

It must be really annoying to the spiders when their webs get covered with moisture . . . like pictured here. We're happy for the moisture no matter how we get it as the drought rages on.

As soon as the fog burns off the relentless sunshine returns. The sun is at its lowest angle of the year this week, so the sun always seems to be trying to set (and in my eyes).

At its lowest, the sun will reach only 38° above the horizon on the 21st and 22nd a little after noon. Above with some Live Oaks (Quercus virginiana) on a drying swamp.

The low angles make for some nice photos. Above, with a century plant (Agave americana).

Above and Below: Warm sunsets on the inland waterway.

Geminid Meteor Shower

2011-12-13T23:08:00.000-08:00

A Geminid meteor cuts across star trails over Arizona's Meteor Crater in a long-exposure picture.

A holiday light show is on offer for sky-watchers this week, as the annual Geminid meteor shower peaks during the overnight hours of December 13 and 14.

This year's Geminid shower should be filled with colorful shooting stars and fireballs—but catching the spectacle will be a matter of timing. The best times are probably before the moon rises when it will be completely dark. Once the moon is up its light will drown out fainter meteors.

Little Star of Sweden: A Geminid meteor bursts above a thousand-year-old Viking church in Vallentuna, Sweden.

If you're out under clear skies, face northeast and look for meteors racing out from the shower's radiant constellation, Gemini, which will be low on the horizon.

The other best chance will be in the very early morning of December 14 when the shower's radiant will be very high overhead. At that point face west -- away from the moon -- and look for meteors streaking down from the sky.

California Stars: Seen from southern California's Anza-Borrego Desert, a flurry of meteors dart around the well-known Big Dipper star formation.

The Geminids peak will feature rates of up to 30 to 40 meteors an hour as seen from suburban locations and up to 100 meteors an hour from the dark countryside.

Despite the number of meteors likely visible, the Geminids don't usually get as much attention as the August Perseids, perhaps because the December shower falls close to the holiday season and during frosty weather in the Northern Hemisphere, where most of the shooting stars will be visible.

Valley of Fire: A lone Geminid meteor appears to plummet in front of a rock formation in the Valley of Fire State Park in Nevada.

Meteor observing requires patience. Recline and look skyward for the best chance of viewing some of the meteor shower.

Slow-Moving Geminids Easy to Spot

While the shower's peak will last only a few hours each night, dozens of shooting stars will be visible over the entire week.

Geminid meteors are fairly slow travelers, moving less than half the speeds of meteors in other showers.

Orange Flash: A shooting star brightens orange-tinted skies above Iran's Zagros Mountains.

Despite the glare of the waning moon, the Geminids may have a few surprises for observers.

The Geminids have a good reputation for producing fireballs which are much brighter than average meteors and occasionally explode (see Major Green Meteor Lights Midwest Night Sky).

The Geminids can also be quite colorful compared with other showers, with some yellow and even occasionally red, green, and blue streaks.

Meteors Come From Mystery Object

Meteors are mostly sand grain-sized particles that enter Earth's atmosphere at high speed, burning up and superheating the air around them, which creates the characteristic short-lived streaks of light.

Shooting stars from the Geminid meteor shower zip across the night sky above the Zagros Mountains, yesterday.

Most annual showers occur when Earth passes through clouds of debris left behind by passing comets, causing tons of cosmic dust to rain down on the planet in short periods of time.

The Geminids are unusual, though, because they're thought to be the only annual meteor shower created by a mysterious asteroid-like object named 3200 Phaethon.

Discoverd in 1983 by a NASA satellite, Phaethon is roughly three-mile-wide (5 km.) space rock. Its year-and-a-half-long orbit precisely matches the appearance of the Geminids, making the body a prime candidate for the source of the meteors.

Star Reserve: Star trails streak over Lake Tekapo in New Zealand in a long-exposure picture. The lake was one of the first sites designated as a Starlight Reserve as part of a UN-supported initiative to preserve the quality of the night sky and its cultural, scientific, or natural value.

Unlike icy comets, Phaethon doesn't release gases or produce a visible tail of debris as it nears the sun. However, it is possible that is because the object has been thoroughly baked by its frequent passages close to our star's intense heat.

Fairly recently, astronomers detected anomalous brightening of Phaethon whenever it approached the sun, which suggests that the space rock might be releasing small caches of frozen gases that had been trapped within the asteroid.

Although 3200 Phaethon is widely considered to be an asteroid, it might in fact be better to classify it as a nearly dead comet.