Saturday, July 7, 2012

Monster Gourd and Population Explosion

I have a variety of wires, screen, string, coat hangers, etc. holding this longest of the gourds in the tree.  Every day it grows a few more inches (5+ cm) and I add more support.

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I built a sling to hold up one of my monster gourds (Cucurbitaceae family; Lagenaria spp.).  This fruit is about 4½ feet long (1.4 m).  The gourds are planted at the base of a large grapefruit tree (Citrus x paradisi Macfad. (pro sp.) [maxima x sinensis] and have grown into the tree's canopy.  The vines are dying due to the excessive heat and dry (it has been 9 days since our last measurable rainfall with daily temperatures in the mid-90°s F; 35° C).
The grapefruit tree is dying along with all the other citrus due to Citrus Greening Disease, but the gourds are quite nice this season.  All of the grapefruits have fallen off of the tree so it will have no fruit this year. . . this despite almost daily irrigation.  In the image above the gourd is resting almost horizontal across the canopy of the tree.
In the image below my fingers are barely visible touching one of the gourds about 9-feet (3 m) off the ground.
The dry lakes of East Central Florida remain dry.  We're always hoping for rain.  Some of the computer forecast weather models predict an increased chance of rain late next week (around July 12).

I've tried planting some gourds like they grow them in the Midwest—on the ground—this year.  A few are doing well where they are shaded by other plants.  Once a fruit forms I whitewash it to protect it from the intense sunlight.
The boat sits perhaps a mile from the nearest puddle.  The weeds are growing taller in the lakebed, however.  The grapefruit tree harboring the gourds is 50 feet uphill the berm (bank) of the lake from where this image was made.  
Despite the persistent hot, dry, and lack of water there is life out there.  A Red-tailed hawk (Buteo jamaicensis) with dinner dangling from his talons (above).


 Below:  A Red-winged Blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus) dive-bombing an American Black Vulture (Coragyps atratus).
 Below:  A Ferruginous Hawk (Buteo regalis) looking for food.
 Below:  The opossums (Didelphis virginiana) are coming out earlier in the evening, looking for a handout.  These marsupials are very tidy eaters, compared to the raccoons which make an incredible mess of any food they can find.  This little opossum has been coming for a few days.  Her ears are white on top.  Even at this young age she has ample claws for climbing.  She mistakenly thinks that standing very still makes her appear invisible to me.
Below:  The zinnias hold up well in the relentless heat.  A grasshopper looking for a meal.
Below:  We have no shortage of spiders inside and out.  Last night the cats took turns tormenting all the spiders that had ridden in on us during the evening.  Below:  Extreme close-up.
We've Read:
POPULATION CONTROL
AND GLOBAL WARMING
We Have Almost Certainly Blown the 1.5° C Global-Warming Target as Population Continues to Grow Exponentially in the Developing World
The United Nations climate change conference held in 2015 in Paris had the aim of tackling future climate change. After the deadlocks and weak measures that arose at previous meetings, such as Copenhagen in 2009, the Paris summit was different. The resulting Paris Agreement committed to:

Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change.

The agreement was widely met with cautious optimism. Certainly, some of the media were pleased with the outcome while acknowledging the deal’s limitations.

Many climate scientists were pleased to see a more ambitious target being pursued, but what many people fail to realize is that actually staying within a 1.5℃ global warming limit is realistically impossible, especially without addressing exploding global human population (e.g. population control via family planning, birth control, or abortion).

There seems to be a strong disconnect between what the public and climate scientists think is achievable. The problem is not helped by the media’s apparent reluctance to treat it as a true crisis.

The 1.5℃ limit is nearly impossible
especially when birth control and family planning are not discussed openly and honestly
In 2015, Earth saw global average temperatures a little over 1℃ above pre-industrial levels, and 2016 will very likely be even hotter. In February and March of this year, temperatures were 1.38℃ above pre-industrial averages.



Admittedly, these are individual months and years with a strong El NiƱo influence (which makes global temperatures more likely to be warmer), but the point is we’re already well on track to reach 1.5℃ soon.


So when will we actually reach 1.5℃ of global warming?


On our current emissions trajectory we will likely reach 1.5℃ within the next couple of decades (2024 is our best estimate). The less ambitious 2℃ target would be surpassed not much later.

This means we probably have only about a decade before we break through the ambitious 1.5℃ global warming target agreed to by the world’s nations in Paris.

A University of Melbourne research group recently published these spiral graphs showing just how close we are getting to 1.5℃ warming. Realistically, we have very little time left to limit warming to 2℃, let alone 1.5℃.

This is especially true when you bear in mind that even if we stopped all greenhouse gas emissions right now, we would likely experience about another half-degree of warming as the oceans “catch up” with the atmosphere.


Parallels with climate change skepticism

The public seriously underestimates the level of consensus among climate scientists that human activities have caused the majority of global warming in recent history. Similarly, there appears to be a lack of public awareness about just how urgent the problem is.

Many people think we have plenty of time to act on climate change and that we can avoid the worst impacts by slowly and steadily reducing greenhouse gas emissions over the next few decades.

This is simply not the case. Rapid and drastic cuts to emissions are needed as soon as possible.

In conjunction, we must also urgently find ways to remove greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere. At present, this is not yet viable on a large scale.
Is 1.5℃ even enough to avoid “dangerous” climate change?

The 1.5℃ and 2℃ targets are designed to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. It’s certainly true that the more we warm the planet, the worse the impacts are likely to be. However, we are already experiencing dangerous consequences of climate change, with clear impacts on society and the environment.

For example, a recent study found that many of the excess deaths reported during the summer 2003 heatwave in Europe could be attributed to human-induced climate change.

Also, research has shown that the warm seas associated with the bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef in March 2016 would have been almost impossible without climate change.

Climate change is already increasing the frequency of extreme weather events, from heatwaves in Australia to heavy rainfall in Britain to floods in the United States.

These events are just a taste of the effects of climate change. Worse is almost certainly set to come as we continue to warm the planet.

It’s highly unlikely we will achieve the targets set out in the Paris Agreement, but that doesn’t mean governments should give up. It is vital that we do as much as we can to limit global warming, including having open and honest discussions about family planning.

The more we do now, the less severe the impacts will be, regardless of targets. The simple take-home message is that immediate, drastic climate action will mean far fewer deaths and less environmental damage in the future.

This article is adapted from a blog post that originally appeared here.