Hurricane Frances, September 2006
No hurricanes have entered or developed in the Gulf of Mexico since September 2013, a stretch of well over 1,000 days. This streak is now the longest on record, dating to the late 1800s.
The last hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico was Hurricane Ingrid which made landfall in northeast Mexico in September 2013.
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Longest Period Without a Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Since 1886
There have been numerous tropical storms that have made landfall along the Gulf Coast since Ingrid in 2013, including tropical storms Colin and Danielle from 2016 and Bill in 2015, to name a few.
It was just eight years ago that Gulf Coast residents were praying for a hurricane drought like the current one.
Starting with Category 4 Hurricane Charley in August 2004, and punctuated by Hurricane Ike in September 2008, 12 hurricanes ravaged the Gulf of Mexico in that stretch of five hurricane seasons. That terrible string of hurricanes included five of the top eight costliest hurricanes in United States history.
Remembering Hurricane Charley
August 9-15, 2004
Hurricane Charley approaching the west coast of Florida in August of 2004.
The last major damage we experienced from a hurricane was during Hurricane Charley in August of 2004.
Hurricane Charley was a small but powerful hurricane. It intensified rapidly just before moving onshore near Cayo Costa, Florida on August 13, 2004 as a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It is rare for hurricanes to make landfall as a category 4 or 5 and to intensify rapidly just before making landfall. Charley’s storm surge (maximum of six to seven feet) was relatively low for a category 4 because the hurricane force winds were confined to a small area and the storm was moving at 25 mph. However, there were ten direct fatalities in the U.S. associated with Charley, and estimates of the total damage and economic loss were $14 billion. Charley was the third costliest hurricane in the U.S. behind Katrina (August 2005) and Andrew (August 1992).
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicted the center of Hurricane Charley to make landfall near Tampa Bay, Florida as a category 3 hurricane throughout most of its lifetime. NHC had placed much of Florida’s gulf coast under hurricane watches and warnings approximately 24 to 36 hours before landfall, and they had highlighted the area for possible landfall for four days. However, a slight easterly shift in Charley’s track toward the coast south of Tampa less than three hours before landfall caused some coastal residents to feel they had inadequate time to prepare. Media and residents seemed to have focused only on the exact forecasted track of the center of Charley, rather than the cone of uncertainty which NHC had included in these track forecasts.
Hurricane Charley Forecast
Track and Intensity
In the three to five day range, the NHC forecasted the center of Charley to move onshore near the Tampa area with maximum sustained winds on the high end of category 2 or low end of category 3. In general, NHC maintained this forecast until about three hours before actual landfall. At approximately 1:00 p.m., NHC adjusted its forecast track to show Charley’s eye moving onshore near Charlotte Harbor, FL (south of Tampa) and increased the intensity forecast to a category 3. They based this change on information received from the reconnaissance aircraft investigating the hurricane and radar trends. Charley underwent rapid intensification and made landfall near Cayo Costa along the barrier islands of Captiva and Sanibel at approximately 3:45 p.m. August 13, 2004 as a category 4 hurricane.
Hurricane Charley approaching Orlando
Hurricane Charley slamming Orlando International Airport
Hurricane Charley wiping out Sanford and heading NE
The Tampa area was not significantly impacted as originally projected. This was due to the change in track and Charley’s eye, the area of strongest winds, was shrinking in size keeping the greatest impacts in a relatively small area. However as noted in the Introduction, NHC had issued hurricane watches and warnings for the landfall area well before the occurrence.
Hurricane Charley as it laid waste to Deltona after midnight on August 14, 2004
Many people focused on the specific forecast track which indicated the projected path of the center of Hurricane Charley making landfall near Tampa Bay instead of the cone of uncertainty (see Figure 1). The cone around the projected track indicated areas of possible landfalls on either side of Tampa. Betty Morrow, Social Scientist, Professor Emeritus at Florida International University (Miami) and an Assessment Team member, interviewed approximately 100 people in the Fort Myers and Punta Gorda areas. She found many did not understand the uncertainty associated with the track forecast. Over 90 percent said they heard the hurricane was going to hit Tampa and not them until it was too late to do something. Steve Jerve, Chief Meteorologist, WFLA-TV, Tampa, echoed this perception, “What people don’t understand is the great amount of error in those tracks. We know that and try to communicate it to the people, but they see the graphic on the air and just focus on that.” Bryan Norcross, Director of Meteorology, WFOR-TV Miami wrote, “Many Floridians, if not most, have the perception that the forecast was wrong and that the storm bamboozled the experts. But that’s not true and the misperception harms the hurricane warning program.”
Hurricane Charley picking up strength as it moved from Deltona to Lake Ashby
When Charley was within six hours of landfall, radar and satellite images indicated the eye began to wobble slightly giving the appearance of a possible change in track. Many NWS users perceived these wobbles as changes in the predicted track and became concerned when NHC did not provide information on these possible changes. Some of the TV meteorologists and Emergency Managers (EM) began to adjust the track forecast themselves without official information from NHC.
"Some believed they were out on a limb without the NHC during the last couple hours before landfall whether rightfully or not.” Alan Winfield, Chief Meteorologist, Bay News 9, Pinellas Park stated, “They (NHC) just need to communicate a little more often in the last moments.” Dave Roberts from WFTX-TV4 FOX, Cape Coral, echoed this statement, “The forecast was very good, but the communication was poor. During the last 6 hours, we needed a play by play of events, explanation of wobbles, NHC’s thinking or else the public and media are going to arrive at their own conclusions.”
Hurricane Charley about to destroy much of Daytona and points south
Although Hurricane Charley’s behavior was unusual with its change in track and rapid intensification just before landfall, all NOAA offices worked well as a team and provided valuable information to its partners and users. NHC had proper watches and warnings in effect for southwest Florida well before Charley made landfall, and they forecasted the possibility of a major hurricane (i.e., category 3, 4, or 5) affecting Florida.
Giant White Bird of Paradise Seed
The Giant White Bird-of-Paradise are now seeding. Our wet afternoons have provided me with time to cut the seed pods from some of the shorter trees and pry open the nut-like seed casing. Pictured here the seed pods split into three sections, each containing about 20 seed that look dressed for Halloween.
I planted about 1,000 of these last August and ended up with 8 plants. I'm going to soak the seeds this year and see if they do any better. Last year I followed instructions found on the web and used a dremmel to file down the seeds. I think this likely damaged the seeds and thus the low seed-plant ratio.
White Bird-of-Paradise
(Strelitzia nicolai)
White Bird-of-Paradise is most often planted for its large, banana-like leaves and upright, clumping stalks which give an exotic feel to the landscape.
Plants can reach 20 to 30 feet in height with a spread of 10 feet though they are often seen much smaller. The five to eight-foot-long, cold-tender leaves are arranged in a fanlike display from the erect trunks and appear much like Traveler’s-Tree. The lower trunk becomes clear of leaves and exposed as the older leaves drop off. Leaves rip along the veins as they are blown by strong winds.
We've Read:
out there (and we're really big fans). We imagine Ryan will laugh about it all soon enough
The Daily Mail cited a Slovenian gossip magazine in reporting Donald Trump's wife had once worked as a call girl.
Questions remain. Did she do in-calls, out-calls? Overnighters?
Did she go to Jersey? What did she charge? Did she ever pay any taxes?
#doestrumppaytaxes
#showmethetaxes
The call girl claims originated with a Daily Mail story published 19 August 2016, which in turn cited a Slovenian-language gossip tabloid called Suzy. The Daily Mail stated Suzy ran a front-page story saying that when Mrs. Trump worked for a New York fashion entrepreneur, Paolo Zampolli, after initially arriving in the US and overstaying her visa (and violating many other US immigration laws), that Ms. Trump moonlighted for his modeling agency as an escort.
The Daily Mail's Story:
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