Tornadoes in Florida; History

Several blog readers have asked if winter tornadoes are unusual in Florida. The short answer is no. Tornado outbreaks are more probable in El Nino winters. The most recent very damaging tornado outbreak was Feb. 2, 2007. It came very close to us and left a path of destruction across central Florida.

The tornado outbreak that I remember best was February 22-23, 1998. It occurred in another El Nino year. The image above is an aerial shot of some of the destruction from that 1998 event.

In 1998, like this year, the Melbourne National Weather Service Office (NWS) alerted the public about the possible consequences of El Nino-enhanced severe weather. The NWS held a summit on December 15, 1997 to explain the dangers to the public. It was reported that there were very few attendees.



ABOVE: During the evening of Feb. 22, 1998 the atmosphere over east-central Florida was primed for severe weather. A strong upper trough associated with a stronger-than-normal subtropical jet stream (wind speeds of 140 knots) was approaching the Florida Peninsula from the west. A cold front arched southeast across the Gulf of Mexico. A line of thunderstorms moved east just ahead of the frontal boundary. Afternoon pre-frontal thunderstorms over north Florida had left behind a surface outflow boundary which stretched from near Daytona Beach to Tampa. The air mass south of the outflow boundary and east of the front was warm, moist, and very unstable. The formation of a strong, nocturnal, low-level jet (winds greater than 50 knots just 1,000 feet above ground level) was coupled with the subtropical jet further aloft to produce very strong vertical wind shear over the peninsula.



The result was the formation of at least three supercell thunderstorms that moved quickly across east-central Florida. Those three supercell thunderstorms spawned at least 7 tornadoes which killed 42 people and injured hundreds. The path of the tornadoes is pictured above.

#1 An F2 touched down in Volusia County at 10:55 pm causing 1 fatality and 3 injuries.

#2 An F3 tornado touched down in Lake County at 11:37 pm, entered Orange County at 11:41 pm and lifted at 11:50 pm. It caused 3 fatalities and 70 injuries.

#3 was our tornado: An F3 tornado touched down in Seminole County at 12:10 am. It caused its first fatalities near Sanford (and very near us) at 12:15 am, it crossed very near Lake Theresa at 12:20 am and finally lifted at 12:25 am after causing 13 fatalities and 36 injuries.

#4 An F3 tornado touched down in Osceola County at 12:40 am. It did not lift until 1:28 am. It caused 25 fatalities and over 150 injuries.

#5 An F2 tornado touched town in Volusia County at 12:45 am.

#6 An F1 tornado touched town in Brevard County at 1:38 am.

#7 An F1 tornado touched down in Brevard County at 2:30 am.

To this day I find roof singles in our woods and along the lake shore from that night's tornado #3, which crossed close enough to Lake Theresa to rip roofs off of houses.

My best memory of the aftermath was a week without power in which time all of my tropical fish died. I also remember President Clinton coming to Central Florida and his helicopter flying overhead to assess the damage. I was a big fan and I thought no president before of after did the disaster-assessment-and-compassion-handshaking better than President Clinton.

One can read the entire report on the 1998 outbreak at: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/assessments/pdfs/cntrlfl.pdf

One can also read up on the forecast of the remainder of this El Nino winter at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/?n=mlbnino

The table below summarizes the report. Note that we have a near 100% probability of having 10 severe weather outbreaks before April 30 and we have an 83% probability of flooding rains before rainy season begins.