Hurricane Igor

ABOVE: A rare double feature: Two category 4 hurricanes in the Atlantic, for only the second time.

The Atlantic hurricane season of 2010 kicked into high gear this morning, with the landfall of Tropical Storm Karl in Mexico, and the simultaneous presence of two Category 4 hurricanes in the Atlantic, Igor and Julia. Tropical Storm Karl's formation yesterday marked the fifth earliest date that an eleventh named storm of the season has formed. The only years more active this early in the season were 2005, 1995, 1936 and 1933.

This morning's unexpected intensification of Hurricane Julia into a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds has set a new record--Julia is now the strongest hurricane on record so far east. When one considers that earlier this year, Hurricane Earl became the fourth strongest hurricane so far north, it appears that this year's record high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have significantly expanded the area over which major hurricanes can exist over the Atlantic.

This morning is just the second time in recorded history that two simultaneous Category 4 or stronger storms have occurred in the Atlantic. The only other occurrence was on September 16, 1926, when the Great Miami Hurricane and Hurricane Four were both Category 4 storms for a six-hour period. There were also two years, 1999 and 1958, when we missed having two simultaneous Category 4 hurricanes by six hours.



ABOVE: A false color water vapor satellite image of 4,000 miles of the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea. Tropical Storm Karl is to the far left. Florida sticks out above and to the right (east) of Karl. Middle image is Hurricane Karl and Hurricane Juilia is far right.

Julia's ascension to Category 4 status makes it the 4th Category 4 storm of the year. Only two other seasons have had as many as five Category 4 or stronger storms (2005 and 1999), so 2010 ranks in 3rd place in this statistic. This year is also the earliest a fourth Category 4 or stronger storm has formed (though the fourth Category 4 of 1999, Hurricane Gert, formed just 3 hours later on today's date in 1999). We've also had four Cat 4+ storms in just twenty days, which beats the previous record for shortest time span for four Cat 4+ storms to appear. The previous record was 1999 when it took 24 days for the Atlantic to produce 4 category 4 storms.



ABOVE: Hurricane Igor as photographed at 18:00 UTC Tuesday, September 14, 2010, from the International Space Station by Astronaut Douglas Wheelock.

FUTURE?

So what's in store for the future of this Hurricane season? For now Floridians need pay little attention to any of these storms. Our weather is dominated by a huge dome of high pressure that blocks the formation of even a few clouds, much less major storms. Sunny, hot, dry, and buggy are forecast for us for the foreseeable future (I added the buggy from personal experience).

The storm closest to Central Florida is Karl and he is moving away (to the west). He is about 800 miles from Orlando International Airport this morning. Hurricane Igor is 1,750 miles east of Central Florida while Hurricane Julia is a world away; 3,150 miles to our east. We may experience some swells from Hurricane Igor this coming weekend on some Florida beaches north of Cape Canaveral.

COMPUTER MODELS

The computer models used to predict tracks and intensity of tropical systems have been reliable this year. The GFS and ECMWF models are currently developing a new tropically depression a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa 3-6 days from now. The GFS also develops a tropical depression in the eastern Caribbean 6-7 days from now.