Late January Global Weather Heats Up

This morning at 03:39 UTC, big sunspot 1402 erupted, sending a coronal mass ejection (CME) headed towards Earth.

This CME is expected to set off a solar storm on January 24 - 25. NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is advising that high-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms; long-duration storms may cause transformer damage. Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; possible changes in satellite drag affect orbit predictions. HF radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes. . .

. . . and the aurora borealis may be seen as low as New York, Idaho, mid-Aleutians. According to NOAA, this is the strongest solar storm since May 2005.

RARE JANUARY TORNADO 

OUTBREAK KILLS TWO

INJURES 100s in ALABAMA

The calendar says it's the coldest month of winter, but today's weather is more typical of March, as a vigorous spring-like storm system has spawned a rare and deadly January tornado outbreak. Twenty tornadoes were reported in Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee last night and this morning, killing at least two, injuring 100, and causing major damage. Two deaths were reported in Canter Point and one unconfirmed death in Oak Grove in Alabama, from a tornado that ripped through the area near 3:30 am EST. The deaths were the first of the 2012 tornado season.

In Clanton, about 50 miles south of Birmingham, Alabama, a separate tornado hit near 8:12 am EST this morning, trapping people in overturned trailer homes, destroying the WKLF radio studio, and toppling a 302-foot high transmission tower.

SIGNIFICANT JANUARY TORNADOES

Historically, January has been the least active month for tornadoes in the U.S. According to the Tornado History Project, during the 61-year period 1950 - 2010, 1223 January tornadoes occurred--an average of twenty per year. There have been two Januarys with no reported tornadoes--2003 and 1986. Thus far in 2012, there have been 44 preliminary tornado reports, so we are already at double the historical January average, with a week still to go in the month. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has put Alabama and Georgia in their "Slight Risk" area for severe weather the remainder of today, so it is likely we will add a few more tornadoes to this month's tally before the outbreak is finished. January 2012 appears likely to become one of the top-five busiest months for January tornadoes in recorded history. Only four years since 1950 have had more than 50 January tornadoes:

January 1999 218

January 2008 88

January 1975 54

January 1997 50

The most recent significant January tornado outbreak occurred last year on January 1, 2011, when seven tornadoes, including two EF-3s, touched down in Mississippi, injuring two people.

The most prolific January tornado outbreak on record occurred January 21 - 22, 1999, when 126 tornadoes, including one violent F-4, hit Arkansas, Missouri, Mississippi, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, Illinois, Texas, and Alabama, killing nine people. A separate outbreak four days earlier, on January 17, spawned 22 tornadoes.

On January 7 - 11, 2008, a series of 75 tornadoes hit the U.S. This second busiest-ever U.S. January tornado outbreak hit southwestern Missouri, northwestern Arkansas and the surrounding areas the hardest. A strong supercell in northern Illinois and southeastern Wisconsin produced that region's first January tornadoes since 1967. Four people were killed, and the tornadoes did $88 million in damage. Fifteen strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes were reported.

The deadliest January tornado since record keeping began in 1950 occurred on January 23, 1969, when an F-4 tornado hit a 5-county region south of Jackson Mississippi, killing 32 people.

Yesterday's deadly Clay, Alabama 

tornado rated an EF-3

A damage survey by the NWS confirmed that the tornado that hit Clay, Alabama yesterday, killing two and injuring over 100, was a strong EF-3 tornado with 150 mph winds. A second EF-3 tornado with 140 mph winds touched down yesterday near Koffman, Alabama, and tore off the roof of a house and a barn. These are the only two EF-3 tornadoes of the year so far. There have been no EF-4 or EF-5 tornadoes yet. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Southern Texas in their "Slight Risk" region for severe weather today, and portions of East Texas and Western Louisiana in the "Slight RIsk" region for Wednesday, and a few isolated tornadoes are possible in Texas and Louisiana over the next two days.

La Niña may be to Blame

Alabama could be in for another season of strong storms, thanks to an unusual recurrence of weather disruption known as La Niña.

A La Niña occurs when the ocean surface temperatures off the coast of Peru are colder than normal. That sets off a series of changes to weather patterns around the globe. Meteorologists believe that La Niña conditions in 2011 helped set the stage for tornadoes last spring.

Alabama state climatologist John Christy said the strong La Niña in 2010 and 2011 led meteorologists to predict that La Niña conditions would return after fading in the summer of 2011, and indeed they did. The double dip La Niña is uncommon.

"It is fairly rare but not unprecedented," Christy said.

During a La Niña, it tends to be warmer than normal in the southeastern United States. In north Alabama, it tends to be wetter. In a normal year, storms are randomly distributed across the country, but in a La Niña year, the storms tend to occur more frequently in the Ohio Valley. The southern trailing edges of those storms sweep across north Alabama, Christy said.

In south Alabama, La Niña is associated with drought. In Florida and the southern portions of Alabama and Georgia, extremely dry conditions are in place and have been since the beginning of the La Niña in 2010.

Birmingham and areas of central Alabama roughly corresponding to the east-west path of Interstate 20 lie in a transition zone between the two.

See more photos at THE BIRMINGHAM NEWS

FLORIDA HEAT CONTINUES

High temperatures in the 80°s F (27° C) continue over most of Florida and will continue for the remainder of the week.  The heat is creating some dense fog in places, especially near sunrise.  Needless to say, in Florida, air conditioners are running . . . 

TROPICAL CYCLONE FUNSO 

SLAMS MOZAMBIQUE

Earth's first major tropical cyclone of 2012 is Tropical Cyclone Funso, a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds located in the Mozambique Channel between Madagascar and Mozambique. Conditions for intensification have been favorable over the past few days, with light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, water temperatures of 29°C (84° F), and an eddy of high oceanic heat content with warm waters extending to great depth located under the center of the storm. Funso is expected to intensify further and have sustained winds of 145 mph by Wednesday. Fortunately, the center of the storm is expected to remain offshore as the storm moves slowly southwards. The outer spiral bands of Funso have dumped torrential rains on Mozambique the past several days, triggering floods that have killed at least twelve people. The floods have swept across the main north-south highway in the country, cutting off the capital of Maputo from the north and center of the country. Flooding from Funso was made worse by the saturated soils left by Tropical Depression Dando, whose rains caused flooding that killed ten people in the country last week.

Mozambique Struggles with Flooding

(CNN) -- Double-punched by two Indian Ocean storms, the southern African nation of Mozambique on Tuesday struggled with the destruction of a portion of its main national highway, cut-off communications and a reported death toll of 18, according to the nation's National Institute for Natural Disasters.

Tropical Cyclone Funso is lashing the central portion of the country, causing flooding along the Incomati River. Officials fear fuel and food shortages will start hit northern cities in Mozambique that usually get supplies via roadway from the capital, Maputo.

Funso currently has winds of 213 kph (about 132 mph), which would make it equal to a Category 4 major hurricane if located in the Atlantic, said CNN Senior Meterologist Brandon Miller. The center of circulation is in the Mozambique Channel, between central Mozambique and the island of Madagascar.

It is forecast to strengthen as it meanders south through the Mozambique Channel over the next several days, Miller said. The storm is spreading rainfall over much of Mozambique and Madagascar, and this will continue for several days as the storm is moving very slowly, Miller said.

Last week, southern Mozambique was hit by heavy rains from tropical depression Dando.

Cecilio Grachane, the chief of the National Roads Administration, expects provisional repairs will be done on the nation's critical north-south highway by Wednesday. But because of poor communication, traffic continues to move toward the place where the waters of the Incomati are overwashing the highway.

The U.S. Embassy in Mozambique said Tuesday it had received reports from two American citizens unable to travel because of a road closure. There have been no reports of Americans injured, it said.

Prime Minister Aires Ali visited the area on Sunday, urging people to not move on the road before they get clear advice on road and weather conditions. On Monday, small boats were helping move people trapped by floodwaters along the highway.

The Movene River, a tributary of the Umbeluzi, has risen substantially, limiting access to the Umbeluzi water treatment station on which Maputo relies for its water supply. Water used by residents of the capital city now has a brown color.