Wacky Winter Weather

The last couple of evenings I've been out at dusk trying to get some shots of the large fires burning to our northwest and northeast. . . and of the dry lake.  Its really kind of shocking to see virtually no water remaining in this 700 acre lake.  The white post in the foreground is the water level gauge . . . which has been sitting on dry ground for some time now.  The smoky skies are creating colorful sunsets.

I couldn't get a shot of the smoke plumes as they are over-the-horizon so I pointed my camera skyward to see if I saw anything around the rising moon and I noticed tens of thousands of blackbirds flying south in mostly irregular lines, perhaps 100 yards wide (91 m).  I suspect these are mostly Brewer's Blackbirds (Euphagus cyanocephalus) based on their voice but I think there were also some Red-winged Blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) in the massive flocks moving slowly south.

Above:  I put the 300 mm lens on the camera to get a better look at the birds flying at perhaps 1000 feet overhead (305 m).  I still couldn't see them very well.  I thought this rather odd that so many birds would be moving south in January.  Their migration is generally complete in October. . .but it has been extremely warm this winter aside from a few cool days we experienced this week.

Above:  Viewed through a 1000 mm lens the number of birds is staggering.  This image is distorted both by the lens and the fact that I was looking into the horizon at the flock flying away from me.  I had to wonder if maybe the birds knew something about coming weather?

This abnormal winter weather has resulted in some other strange occurrences.   Flowers are sprouting in January in New Hampshire, the Sierra Mountains in California are nearly snow-free, and lakes in much of Michigan still have not frozen.  Yesterday in Fargo, North Dakota the temperature soared to 55° F (13° C), breaking a 1908 record for the warmest January day in recorded history.  More than 99% of North Dakota has no snow on the ground (image above).

Over 95% of the country that normally has snow at this time of year has below-average snow cover.  High temperatures in Nebraska yesterday were in the 60°s (17° C), more than 30 degrees F above average.  Storm activity has been virtually absent from the entire United States this week with the jet stream bottled up far to the north in Canada.

This is likely the driest first week of January in United States recorded history.  The warm and dry start to winter is not limited to the United States, all of continental Europe experienced well above-average temperatures during December as well.

JET STREAM PATTERN MOST EXTREME EVER RECORDED

The cause of this warm first half of winter is the most extreme configuration of the jet stream ever recorded, as measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation.  The Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation are climate patterns in the Northern Hemisphere defined by fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure in the North Atlantic between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High.  Read more at "Arctic Oscillation Results in Warm Winter. . . so far."

This winter these weather patterns have caused the Icelandic Low to draw a strong south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward over the United States and Europe, as is normal.

FORECAST FOR REMAINDER OF JANUARY

So back to the blackbirds and the forecast. . . we will finally get the first major storm of 2012 in the United States early next week, when the computer models are predicting a low pressure system will develop over Texas and spread heavy rains along a swath from Eastern Texas to New England during the week.  This storm should pull in a shot of cold air behind it late in the week, bringing a return to near-normal January temperatures to much of the country, and some snow to northern New England.

Beyond that, it is difficult to tell what the rest of winter may be like, since the Arctic Oscillation is difficult to predict more than a week or two in advance.  The current predictions are for the current pattern to remain strong for at least another couple weeks resulting in very little snow and warmer-than-average temperatures.

This is going to exacerbate drought conditions in the south and likely cause the drought conditions to spread into the Midwest.

Florida is forecast to remain balmy with temperatures near 80° F (25° C) for the foreseeable future. . . and I guess we might be seeing a lot more flocks of birds like these blackbirds heading south. . . or perhaps back north at times of the year that we wouldn't expect them.