Much of the U.S. can expect a summer with temperatures above average and significant wildfire potential, government forecasters warned just as some areas were already feeling the heat: dozens in Colorado fled their homes on Thursday due to a fast-growing fire near Fort Collins, while a historic Arizona mining town remained evacuated as a nearby fire continued to spread.
"You may see a pretty significant wildfire season developing" across the West, Greg Carbin of the United States Storm Prediction Center told reporters. "To see fires to the extent that they are this early isn't a good sign."
"Strong signals" exist especially for the Southwest in terms of a hot summer, added Jon Gottschalck, a forecaster at the U.S. Climate Prediction Center.
The Climate Prediction Center also published the map above showing more than two-thirds of the continental U.S. as likely facing a summer with above normal temperatures—from inland California all the way east to Florida and as far up as the Mid-Atlantic region.
Temperatures are expected to be above normal for the next three months from interior portions of California to the East Coast and from southern New Jersey to Florida, according to the Climate Prediction Center.
A lack of snowpack in the western mountains will mean less water in the region. Coupled with current moderate to severe drought conditions across the Southwest, that’s left vegetation dried out and ready to burn, Carbin said.
“The conditions out there aren’t going to improve very much,” Carbin said during a conference call with reporters. “We may see a pretty significant wildfire season developing.”
Carbin said storms moving inland from the Pacific Ocean with high winds and lightning are potentially dangerous.
In June 2008, such a storm sparked off more than 2,000 fires in a single day, leading to one of California’s worst wildfire seasons, according to the state’s Department of Forestry and Fire Protection.
The ocean is experiencing normal conditions since a cooling of the water, called a La Niña, ended last month. El Niño and La Niña conditions affect weather across the U.S. The climate center will issue its next forecast on the Pacific on June 7.
The cyclical La Niña weather pattern, while having dissipated last month, left behind dry soils across much of the country, which makes for less moisture in the air and warmer temperatures, the forecasters said.
Dry soils, and winds that kicked in, have helped spread wildfires in Arizona and Colorado this week.
U.S. Forest Service officials said a blaze about 20 miles northwest of Fort Collins grew from about 1.5 square miles to more than 11 square miles Thursday amid erratic winds gusts of up to 50 mph.
Authorities ordered mandatory evacuations of about 80 homes near Poudre Canyon earlier in the day, even going door to door to issue warnings.
Residents of about 65 of those homes were allowed to return by early evening, with instructions to be ready to leave again if conditions change.
The fire was approaching the city of Greeley's Milton Seaman Reservoir on Thursday night, but city officials said Greeley's water supply hasn't been affected.
Strong gusts have also fanned a fire in northern Arizona that earlier this week forced 350 residents of Crown King to flee.
Three wildfires in other parts of the state continue to burn as well, but no structures are threatened.
Strong wind gusts are expected Friday as well.
"High-end critical conditions will quickly develop by late morning to early afternoon across the Southwest," the National Weather service said in an alert.