While there's no hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico today, yet, it bears watching. Many of the most visible pundits on the web are already calling the giant low pressure system in the southern Gulf "Hurricane Debby."
I thought it time for me to list some of my favorite tropical analysis sites along with my critique of how well they provide information to the public.
National Hurricane Center
The United States National Weather Service National Hurricane Center is the final word on tropical weather worldwide.
Critique: The National Hurricane Center does not provide to the public copies of the so-called spaghetti maps that are so popular with the lesser scientific outlets. Spaghetti maps and charts are plots created by sophisticated computers that are constantly updated, attempting to forecast where a storm might go next. They're so-called because they often look like a bowl of spaghetti thrown on the map due to the inconsistency of the forecasts (squiggly lines; see where you can find this information below).
The Hurricane Center rightly says that this information is too sophisticated for the general public and is easily misinterpreted. . . but I like to look at the charts anyway. The Hurricane Center does provide dumbed-down charts (above; this morning's chart) to show where tropical systems are located and they do provide a general warning that is updated at least 4 times a day. In general this is not enough information for me. The Hurricane Center also has a fine link page to satellites and radars and to other tropical sites around the Earth.
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
The National Weather Service's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center provides much more sophisticated weather maps that can easily be understood by most readers. The rainfall prediction maps (above) are a graphic representation of where their computers and forecasters see future rainfall from any weather system across North America.
Critique: I love this site. Currently the 5-day Precipitation graphic (above) shows up to 8.00" (203 mm) of rain predicted to fall over a large portion of the Florida peninsula. That's a good indication that they believe the future Tropical Storm Debby will head toward Central Florida. These graphics are updated frequently and from them one can extrapolate the potential storm movement. The easy-to-red "Xs" show maximum potential rainfall. In the graphic above, portions of the central Gulf of Mexico are forecast to receive as much as 14.6" of rain over the next 5 days (370.84 mm).
The National Weather Service
Weather Forecast Offices
around the Gulf of Mexico
The National Weather Service has offices all around the Gulf of Mexico that provide graphics, radars and varying degrees of analysis on approaching tropical systems.
In Florida the sites are located at:
Jacksonville -- http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax
Melbourne -- http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/
Miami (South Florida) -- http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/
Tampa -- http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/
Key West -- http://www.srh.noaa.gov/key/
Tallahassee -- http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tae/
Mobile, Alabama (for the western Panhandle) -- http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/
The sites are not easily navigated, however, at top left of each site there is a site designation like "NWS Tallahassee, FL" link in blue. Click that link for more easy-to-read graphical forecasts.
Critique: Some of the sites do a better job with the graphics than others. Some offer moving radars that work on iPad and iPhone. My favorites are Jacksonville and Tampa. Melbourne's graphics seem rushed and uninspired. Above: Tampa's current graphic on the potential tropical storm.
Accuweather v. The Weather Channel
Both Accuweather and The Weather Channel are all over any potential tropical weather. They provide lots of graphics (above) along with videos and analysis.
Critique: These sites have far too much public interaction (comments), too many advertisements, and are too cluttered for me. They are so focused on cramming as many advertisements onto the screen that the story becomes only a teaser. The public comments are mostly pointless, used to generate hits for their website and ad clicks. I don't bother with either of these sites.
Weather Underground
Weather Underground has some great blogs that are worth reading if you can avoid the reader comments sections. Dr. Jeff Master's blog is perhaps the best and is featured on the homepage of his Weather Underground site. He provides insightful analysis of all the data flooding in from other sources. The site also provides spaghetti graph plots under the heading "Severe Weather," and "Tropical & Hurricane." For those using mobile devices that don't run Flash it also has radars-in-motion that work on iPad and iPhone.
Critique: Unfortunately, Dr. Master's blog allows comments that are not filtered or screened by the site administrators so the comments can slow the blog down to a crawl as they are crowded with pointless graphics and nonsensical chatter that might be better viewed elsewhere (or nowhere). I do like reading Dr. Master's blog but I find the comments to be so obtrusive that I often avoid this site.
Spaghetti Models
Spaghetti Models (or Mike's Weather Page) gives you everything you need to follow a storm in one nice, big page. Sometimes it can look like too much information. . . but if you forget a link to one of the other websites Mike's is the go-to page to find it. He compiles a lot of relevant information that is available from various public sources like the graphic above (spaghetti model tracks for the current system provided by the South Florida Water Management District).
Critique: Mike's is a little busy but I visit often when looking for a link to a specialized hurricane tracking product.
Tropical Tidbits in the Tundra
One of the best tropical analysis sites and from a most unusual location is Levi Cowan's Tropical Tidbits from the Tundra site. He blogs from Alaska, providing a youtube video almost daily during the hurricane season. The video, complete with graphics and easy-to-understand analysis provides Levi's explanation of why he thinks a tropical system might form and where it might go. His site is not crowded with advertisements and the videos are devoid of ads.
Critique: This is perhaps my favorite tropical analysis site, if I'm too busy (or lazy) to look at all the information for myself, I watch Levi's daily video updates and I feel like I have all the information I need to proceed for the day.
UNISYS Weather
Unisys Weather provides the daily forecasts from several of the most relied-upon weather forecasting computer models. While this is a highly technical site it is useful for the average viewer if they stick to the sea level precipitation plots (SL Pres/Prec) which are easily understood in graphic presentation (60 hour GFSx model forecast for Tropical Storm approaching the Big Bend of Florida).
Critique: Highly technical but still quite useful with plots out to 10 days.