Water Wars and Hornworms

Central Florida has seen a damp week, finally, with 3.00" (76.2 mm) of rain over the past week.  The Five-spotted hawkmoths and their larvae (above; Manduca quinquemaculata) are not really happy with the weather preferring sunny, hot days.  Many gardeners remove these fascinating creatures—claiming them to be a major pest.  I plant more tomatoes and let the moths and worms have what they like.

U.S. Intelligence Report Warns of Global Water Wars

The American intelligence community warned in a report released in March titled GLOBAL WATER SECURITY, that problems with water could destabilize countries in North Africa, the Middle East and South Asia over the next decade.

Increasing demand and competition caused by the world’s rising population and scarcities created by climate change and poor management threaten to disrupt economies and increase regional tensions, the report concludes.

The Five-spotted Hawkmoth

Prepared at the request of the State Department, the report is based on a classified National Intelligence Estimate completed last October that reflected an increasing focus on environmental and other factors that threaten security. An estimate reflects the consensus judgment of all intelligence agencies.  Note that by definition National Intelligence Estimates are meant to represent the collective best guess of the nation's intelligence community as to what is likely to happen, or not happen, in particular parts of the world.

While the report concluded that wars over water are unlikely in the coming decade, it said that countries could use water for political and economic leverage over neighbors and that major facilities like dams and desalination plants could become targets of terrorist attacks.  Coupled with poverty and other social factors, problems with water could even contribute to the political failure of weaker nations.

Closely related to the Tobacco Hornworm (Manduca sexta), I cannot tell the species apart and it doesn't really matter as they both feed on various plants from the family Solanaceae (or Nightshade plants; potatoes, tobacco, tomatoes, eggplant, etc.)

The public report, unlike the classified version, did not specify countries at greatest risk for water-related disruption but analyzed conditions on major river basins in regions with high potential for conflict — from the Jordan to the Tigris and Euphrates to the Brahmaputra in South Asia.

“During the next 10 years, many countries important to the United States will almost certainly experience water problems — shortages, poor water quality, or floods — that will contribute to the risk of instability and state failure, and increase regional tensions,” the report said. “Additionally states will focus on addressing internal water-related social disruptions which will distract them from working with the United States on important policy objectives.”

Manduca quinquemaculata (Five-spotted Hawkmoth

The report warned that water shortages would become acute in some regions within the next decade, as demand continued to rise. While disputes over water have historically led to negotiated settlements over access, upstream countries will increasingly use dams and other projects “to obtain regional influence or preserve their water interests” over weaker countries downstream.

This is already happening on the Tigris and Euphrates, where Turkey, Syria and Iran have harnessed the headwaters of the two rivers that flow through Iraq.

A Tomato Hornworm being eaten by Bracnoid wasp larvae (Cotesia congregatus, syn. Apanteles congregatus).    The female wasp uses her ovipositor (the tube through which eggs are laid) to lay eggs just under the skin of an unlucky hornworm.  As the eggs hatch, the larvae feed on the hornworm's viscera—literally eating the worm alive.  Larvae chew their way out through the host's skin when they mature.  Once outside, the future wasps pupate, spinning tiny oval cocoons that look like insect eggs along the external back and sides of the worm.  

Five-spotted hawkmoth on a lily.