Hard Rain. . . and Historic Drought

We had our hardest rain of the summer yesterday afternoon.  About 2 inches (51 mm) fell in about an hour.  After the hard rain our dry lake looked a little fresher.  Notice the pond that appeared at the far right of the image.  There is also a wet area in the center of the image but it is obscured by tall weeds.  If we could get a couple similar rainfall events a week for the rest of the summer we might have something that looks like a lake again.

After about an hour the puddle started to disappear, as it has for years now.  The normal water level should be about 5 feet deep (1.5 m) where the puddle appears.  Years of pervasive drought and political mismanagement have eliminated most of this large (700 acre) lake.  These images are taken looking northeast toward New Smyrna Beach, Florida.

An upper level low pressure system that is moving southwest from the waters off of Jacksonville toward the Gulf of Mexico might bring us more rainfall today.

HISTORIC DROUGHT of 2012

6th Worst on Record

Meanwhile across the heartland of America the historic drought of 2012 rages on.  The great drought area has expanded as summer's heat continues to bake a huge section of the United States.  The percentage area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought increased to 56% by the end of June, and ranked as the sixth largest drought since U.S. weather records began in 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in their monthly State of the Climate drought report on Monday. The last time more of the U.S. was in drought occurred in December 1956, with 58%. June 2012 ranked as the 10th greatest U.S. drought on record, when considering the percentage area of the U.S. in severe or greater drought (33%).

Hot and Dry with Worsening Drought Conditions

The killer drought of 2012 is going to steadily worsen during the remainder of July. Recent runs of the global computer weather forecast models predict a continuation through the end of July of the large-scale jet stream patterns that have brought the U.S. its hot, dry summer weather. The most extreme heat will tend to be focused over the center portion of the county. That was the case yesterday, with temperatures near or in excess of 100° F (38° C) observed from South Dakota to Michigan. High temperatures near 100° F are expected in Chicago and Detroit today, and over much of the Midwest.  

How Much will the Drought of 2012 Cost?

Many Billions of Dollars

Agronomists (soil managers and crop specialists) and drought experts are comparing the scale and intensity of the 2012 drought to the 1988 drought. With the forecast offering little optimism, the costs of the 2012 drought are certain to be many billions of dollars, and the disaster could be one of the top ten most expensive weather-related disasters in U.S. history. Droughts historically have been some of the costliest U.S. weather disasters. A four-year drought and locust plague from 1874 - 1877 cost $169 billion (in 2012 dollars), and was arguably the most expensive weather related disaster in U.S. history.  The costs of the great Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s, which displaced 2.5 million people, are incalculable. The costs of government financial assistance alone were $13 billion in 2012 dollars.  The 1988 drought cost $78 billion (2012 dollars), the second most expensive weather disaster since 1980, behind Hurricane Katrina.

The associated heat wave of the great drought of 2012 is also a major concern. The heat waves associated with the great droughts of 1980 and 1988 killed between 7,500 - 10,000 people, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. The heat waves of the 1930s are blamed for 5,000 deaths. The death toll from the 2012 heat wave is approaching 100, including 23 in Chicago, up to 19 in Wisconsin, 18 in Maryland, 17 in St. Louis, and 9 in Philadelphia. The toll will undoubtedly grow as more heat-related deaths are discovered, and as the heat continues.