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| Bee's Wings |
Florida Heat
There is no sign that the Florida heat/dry wave will be coming to an end anytime soon. As we approach Thanksgiving temperatures remain well above normal with highs in the mid 80°s (29°C) and little rain.
The Sunflower Trees (Tithonia diversifolia) don't seem to mind though they are looking a little parched. Everything else in the gardens, except for a few very hardy native species, has long ago dried up and died from the intense, relentless heat and dry.
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| Sharing |
El Niño and Florida Heat
El Niño Hits All-Time Record Strength
Incredibly warm waters continue to build across the equatorial Pacific, and the El Niño event of 2015 has just set a record for the warmest waters ever observed in the equatorial Pacific over a 1-week period. Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific’s Niño 3.4 region, between 90°W and 160°E longitude and 5° north/south latitude, are considered the benchmark for rating the strength of an El Niño event. The weekly departure of SST from average in this region hit +3.0°C (5.4°F) over the past week, NOAA announced in their November 16 El Niño update. This exceeds the previous 1-week record warmth in the equatorial Pacific of 2.8°C above average set during the week of November 26, 1997; accurate El Niño records extend back to 1950. However, the standard measure for the strength of an El Niño event is the three-month average Niño 3.4 SSTs, and the El Niño of 2015 is not yet officially considered the strongest on record.
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| Zebra Longwing (Heliconius charitonia) on Sunflower Tree |
In Florida the effects of El Niño are most pronounced December-March when temperatures should be cooler than normal and rainfall should be greatly enhanced. For now we can assume that climate change coupled with the strongest El Niño ever is responsible for the extremely warm and dry conditions being experienced in Florida.
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| Gulf fritillary (Agraulis vanillae) on Sunflower Tree |
How Strong is This El Niño
The extra energy currently contained in the
Niño 3.4 region is equal to the annual
energy consumption of the United States
In case you’re unimpressed by a 2°C (3.6°F) change, let’s do a little math. The area covered by the Niño3.4 region is a little more than 6 million square kilometers (2.4 million square miles). One cubic meter of water weighs 1,000 kg. So the top two meters (6.6 feet) of the Niño 3.4 region contains about 12 quadrillion kilograms (about 13.6 trillion tons) of water.
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| Long-tailed Skipper (Urbanus proteus) on Sunflower Tree |
The energy required to raise one kilogram of water one degree Celsius (the “specific heat”) is 4.19 kilojoules. A 2°C increase in just the top two meters of the Niño 3.4 region adds up to an extra 100 quadrillion kilojoules (95 quadrillion BTUs), about equal to the annual energy consumption of the U.S.!
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| Zebra Longwing on Sunflower Tree with Golden Rain Trees in background |
Who is Feeling the Effects of this El Niño?
In the U.S., the season of strongest El Niño impacts is December through March. While we’re waiting to see what the strong 2015-16 El Niño brings us, we can look around a few other corners of the world to see what’s happened so far.
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| Bee Friends |
El Niño has substantial impacts in two regions of Africa. In East Africa, including Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, and Rwanda, the primary impact season is October–December, when El Niño tends to enhance the ”short rains” rainy season (the “long rains” season, which is much less ENSO-sensitive, is March-May), leading to wetter conditions. Over the last month, rain has begun to increase across much of the area, and some flooding has been seen in Somalia. Short-term forecasts suggest the wetter conditions should continue through the next few weeks, at least.
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| White Peacock Butterfly (Anartia jatrophae) and Polka-Dot Wasp Moth (Syntomeida epilais) |
Look closely at the images above and below. On the far left flower is a White Peacock Butterfly and on the far right flower is a Polka-Dot Wasp Moth in both images. The White Peacock virtually disappears into the images.
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| White Peacock Butterfly (Anartia jatrophae) and Polka-Dot Wasp Moth (Syntomeida epilais) |
Southern Africa, including Zimbabwe, Botswana, Namibia, Angola, South Africa, Lesotho, Swaziland, and the southern half of Mozambique, tends to see a drier December–February during an El Niño. Areas of this region, especially South Africa, are very dry right now, after a failed monsoon last year. Another dry year will place more stress on water availability. You can check out climate model forecasts for the continent here.
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| Shimmering Bee's Wings |
In a couple of short sentences, here are some huge impacts: El Niño-related dry conditions in Indonesia have set the stage for devastating fires, and the region is experiencing the greatest number of forest fires since 1997. Also, all the extra warm waters associated with this El Niño are placing heat stress on sea life, and an intense coral bleaching event is underway.
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| Florida Bee Condo |
El Niños tend to enhance the hurricane season in the Pacific, and depress the Atlantic hurricane season. So far this year, there have been a total of 21 Category 4 and 5 storms in the North Pacific, shattering the old record of 17, set in 1997. The North Central Pacific region (140-180W) has shattered records for most named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes tracking through the 140-180W region.
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| Two Gulf Fritillary Butterflies and 2 bees. Number 2 is hiding well in this image. Click on the image for a larger view. |
According to the Climate Prediction Center, the Atlantic season has been fairly quiet, although the number of named storms has been close to average, at 11 storms so far (including Kate, which formed last week). The average is about 12… but the overall activity of this storm season (the combined strength and duration of all storms, measured as the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) has been less than 60% of average, and we’ve had 3 hurricanes, half the average number of 6.
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| Dry November Sunflowers and a Bumblebee |
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| Gulf Fitillary |
The Gulf Fritillary (above) mimics the Monarch (below) for protection from predators. The Monarch is loaded with toxic substances known as cardiac glycosides, which it acquires as a result of feasting on milkweed plants as a caterpillar. These substances render it unpalatable to many of its predators, and its brightly colored wings serve as a warning sign of its toxicity. The Viceroy (Limenitis archippus) is a better mimic of the Monarch but the Gulf Fritillary is close enough to confuse or ward off most predators.
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| Monarch Butterfly (Danaus plexippus) |
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| Long-tailed Skipper (Urbanus proteus) on Sunflower Tree |
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| Field of Florida Sunflower Trees |
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| Black-Eyed Susan Vine (Thunbergia alata) and Firespike (Odontonema strictum) with two Zebra Longwing Butterflies |
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| Firespike (Odontonema strictum) with two Zebra Longwing Butterflies |
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| Black-Eyed Susan Vine (Thunbergia alata) and Firespike (Odontonema strictum) with two Zebra Longwing Butterflies |
We've Read and Watched:
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| From left, Rupert Friend and Rene Ifrah in "Homeland." ©Stephan Rabold/SHOWTIME |
The episode served up an unwelcome reminder of the porousness of post-Schengen, open-border Europe. Carrie drives from Berlin to Amsterdam and back and penetrates the Iraqi émigré community without attracting notice — though with predictably disastrous results for the happily relocated, taxi-driving Iraqi M.B.A. student who facilitates her journey.
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| "Peace for Paris" ©Jean Jullien |
The list of poets who have pretended to be someone else to tweak the conventions of art and/or society is long and includes writers like Fernando Pessoa and Marian Evans (a.k.a. George Eliot). The list of poets who have pretended to be someone else so as to slightly increase their odds of being published in the literary journal Prairie Schooner is considerably shorter.
It’s often said that Patrick Modiano, who won last year’s Nobel Prize in Literature, keeps writing the same book. That is partly true, but only in the way that Cézanne kept painting the same apples. Most of this novelist’s 30-odd atmospheric books, set in the murky waters and demimonde of occupied or newly liberated Paris, resemble and build on the others, yet each is completely distinct.
Adapting to Charlie Hebdo’s instant transformation from a relatively obscure, parochial French publication to an international symbol, celebrated by free-speech advocates has been a bewildering challenge for some of it's artists. Its two dozen cartoonists and writers, who previously enjoyed some degree of anonymity, moved this month to a new, heavily fortified newsroom with bulletproof windows, a panic room and a labyrinth of safety doors — security measures that cost 1.5 million euros, or $1.65 million. They live furtively, under 24-hour police protection. |
| A postcard from around the start of the 20th century showing the Bataclan on Boulevard Voltaire in the 11th Arrondissement. The top of its Chinese-style pagoda no longer remains—it was destroyed in a fire in the 1930s—but the building still functions more or less as it once did. |
The Uncommon Resilience of Parisian Street Life
Unlike most big cities, Paris’s urban fabric has not changed significantly since the 1850s and 1860s, when it was redesigned, or in some cases razed, by Napoleon III and his efficient prefect, Baron Haussmann. Their stitches — the Grands Boulevards, the Boulevard de l’Opéra and all the major roads leading into the Place de la République, for example — have held, thanks to conscious urban preservation and respectful wartime enemies.
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| A postcard from around the start of the 20th century showing Rue Bichat from the intersection at Rue Alibert in the 10th Arrondissement. |
Terrorist who passed through Greece
and Balkans disguised as Emigre
and Balkans disguised as Emigre