Saturday, August 13, 2016

Oppressive Sultry, Heat and Humidity Across Much of USA

A Green Lynx Spider (Peucetia viridans) lies in wait on a zinnia.  The Lynx can squirt venom from her chelicerae (mouth part), sometimes for a distance of about a foot (300 mm).
A passing Gulf Fritillary Butterfly is captured and rendered immobile by the spider's venom.
The spider gradually lowers the butterfly down to its nest below the flower. 

In turn, the spider itself is often preyed upon by the Dirt Dauber (Mud dauber; Sceliphron caementarium) wasp.

Black and yellow mud daubers primarily prey on relatively small, colorful spiders, such as crab spiders (and related groups), orb weavers and some jumping spiders (like the Green Lynx). They usually find them in and around vegetation. Blue mud daubers are the main predator of the black and brown widow spiders.


Dirt dauber wasps frequently drink flower nectar, but they stock their nests with spiders, which serve as food for their offspring. Like connoisseurs, they prefer particular kinds of spiders, and particular sizes of spiders for their larders (food storage area of nest). Instead of stocking a nest cell with one or two large spiders, mud daubers cram as many as two dozen small spiders into a nest cell. They appear to know exactly what they are hunting for, and where to find it.


To capture a spider, the wasp grabs it and stings it. The venom from the sting does not kill the spider, but paralyzes and preserves it so it can be transported and stored in the nest cell until consumed by the larva.

And so, nothing goes to waste in the natural world.

Tropical Airmass

An extremely moist, tropical air mass has taken the entire eastern United States hostage.

From Houston to Marquette, Mich., and from Miami to Bangor, Maine, humidity is oppressively high.
This is no ordinary deep tropical air mass. Levels of atmospheric moisture streaming into the Lower 48 from the Gulf of Mexico are among the highest ever recorded.


The super high atmospheric moisture pouring into the eastern United States has two primary effects: 1. It is unleashing suffocating humidity, and 2. It is fueling torrential downpours.

In parts of the USA, like Florida, the data show that this miserable weather has been around most of the summer and will continue indefinitely.  Data for July 2016 make it clear that this summer is among the nation’s warmest on record, thanks in large part to consistently sultry nights in many areas. Meteorological summer so far--June plus July—has been the fifth warmest for the contiguous U.S. in 122 years of record keeping, according to the July climate report released this week by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). Ahead of 2016 at this point are the scorching Dust Bowl summers of 1934 (#4) and 1936 (#1) along with the recent 2006 (#3) and 2012 (#2). The toasty summer so far is the result of the nation’s warmest June on record followed by its 14th warmest July. Last month’s warmth was focused across the nation’s southern and eastern halves, with New Mexico and Florida each recording their hottest July on record. Fourteen other states made it into their top ten warmest for July. 

The humidity

Dew points, which are direct measures of humidity, are unusually high over such a large area. When they exceed 70°, they’re indicative of uncomfortably humid conditions. Almost every city east of the Great Plains posted dew points above 70° this week.

When dew points exceed 80°, the humidity is difficult to tolerate. Several locations in southeast Texas, including Houston, were reporting 80°-plus dew points.

Dew points are forecast to remain in the 70°s over large portions of the eastern United States through the middle of August along the East Coast south of New England.

When conditions are this humid, nighttime temperatures don’t cool off much. For the next several nights, record high overnight minimum temperatures are likely—particularly in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

During this period of high humidity, afternoon temperatures are generally not forecast to be record-breaking. However, highs are forecast to be in the 90°s in many areas. Factoring in the humidity, it will feel another 5° to 10° degrees warmer—up to 100° to 105° degrees.


The relative humidity at Orlando/Sanford Airport about 20 miles north of downtown Orlando has been mostly in the 80-95% range while dew points have not dropped below 71° for the past 3 days and only a trace or rain has fallen.  Based on these data we can safely say it has been muggy to sultry 24/7 for the past week in Orlando.

Warmest nights on record for June-July

It’s the muggy nights that are imprinting themselves on the psyche of millions of Americans this summer. The average daily minimum for the contiguous U.S. was the warmest on record for June and July combined: 60.57°F, beating out 2015, 2010, 2002, and 2006. Warmer nights are a hallmark of a climate being heated by added greenhouse gases, and it’s long been recognized that nights should generally warm more than days, and winters more than summers, as climate change proceeds. Of the eight June-July periods with the warmest average daily temperatures (including both highs and lows), four are from Dust Bowl years. However, the eight years with the warmest average daily minimum temperatures are all from the 21st century. Urban heat islands are no doubt helping to increase overnight lows in large metropolitan areas; however, the nationwide extent of the trend toward warm nights goes well beyond this effect. 

For the year to date through July, the U.S. has seen 15,061 daily record highs and just 2709 record daily lows.  2016 is in a race with 2012 for that dubious distinction of having the highest ratio of record daily highs to record daily lows since 1920.
Wilting in Washington, D.C.

Several U.S. locations have been setting records for the most consecutive nights above unpleasant thresholds of warmth. Reagan Washington National Airport made it five weeks—July 5 through August 8—without once getting below 70°F. In records dating back to 1872, that stretch of 35 days above 70°F beats the previous record of 32 days notched from July 15 to August 15, 1980. This summer, the city has set only one record high—100°F on July 25—but there were three record-warm lows in a row: 81°F on July 25, 80°F on July 26, and 81°F on July 27. The next several days will test the patience of D.C. residents, as lows are expected to hang in the upper 70°s and afternoons warm into the mid to upper 90°s. 

The warm nights extend well beyond the contiguous 48 states. As of Wednesday, Anchorage, Alaska, had gone 59 days without dipping below 50°F, topping the record string of 53 days set from June 23 to August 14, 2013. The city also saw a run of 18 consecutive days above 55°F this summer (July 13-30), which doubles the old record of 9 days (July 16-24, 1984). In Fairbanks, the stretch of 41 nights above 50°F this summer (June 24 to August 3) smashed the old record of 32 nights (June 25 to July 26, 1975). These are just a few examples of the exceptional mildness bathing Alaska for months now. Alaska’s average temperature for the year to date of 33.9°F is the first time in records going back to 1925 that the January-to-July period has topped 32°F. The freezing mark carries extra physical and psychological significance in a state like Alaska, where entire ways of life are based on the reliable presence of ice for most of the year.


Wet to the north, dry to the south

Despite the high humidity it has been exceptionally dry across much of peninsular Florida this summer, particularly east central Florida which in many cases saw no rain at all in July.

After an unusually dry June across the contiguous U.S., July produced generous rains across much of the nation's northern tier, while leaving most of the Northeast and the nation's southern half on the dry side. It was the second-driest July on record for Georgia and the third-driest for Florida, with Wyoming and New Mexico also coming in among their top-ten driest. July was among the ten wettest on record in five states: Illinois, Kentucky, Minnesota, Missouri, and North Dakota. The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor issued this week shows that more than 40% of California remains in extreme or exceptional drought, a situation that is unlikely to change before the 2016-17 wet season arrives (if then). Much of the state remains extremely vulnerable to fast-growing wildfire, especially over the next several months. Wildfire potential is also expected to increase across the South this autumn, according to the latest outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. (Torrential rains scattered over parts of the upper Gulf Coast this week will help tamp down the immediate drought and fire risk in those areas.)

The wet-north/dry-south tendency evident in July may be a foreshadowing of La Niña influence to come. The strong El Niño of 2015-16 is giving way to borderline La Niña conditions, with the weekly index of sea-surface temperatures in the Niño3.4 region hanging near the -0.5°C threshold of La Niña over the past month. NOAA maintained a La Niña Watch in its monthly ENSO discussion issued this week, although the event is projected to be relatively weak if it does take shape. NOAA is giving a 55-60% chance of La Niña being present this fall and winter and a negligible chance of El Niño (below 10%). Because La Niña typically leads to a more consolidated jet stream, it often leaves southern parts of the 48 states on the dry side of upper-level flow as storm systems whip across the nation’s heartland, keeping northern areas more moist.



What is Causing the sopping wet air mass

A very large area of high pressure centered east of Bermuda is the primary culprit for this unusually warm and humid air mass. Clockwise flow around this high pressure system is transporting air from the tropical Atlantic Ocean into the Gulf of Mexico and then northeastward.


Water temperatures in both the tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico are substantially warmer than normal, intensifying the heat and moisture streaming into the eastern United States.

Along the central Gulf Coast, a measure of atmospheric moisture (from the surface up to the jet stream level) known as precipitable water is in the top percentile (3 to 3.5 standard deviations above normal) of historical values.

In New Orleans, the precipitable water was determined to be 2.78 inches Wednesday, which ranks among the top-five highest levels on record in August. “That is higher than some soundings [weather balloon measurements] observed here during past tropical cyclones,” the National Weather Service said.
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