Sometimes it’s difficult to fathom that the world could actually become even more crowded than it is today—especially when elbowing through a teeming Delhi market, hustling across a frenetic Tokyo street crossing or sharing breathing space with sweaty strangers crammed into a London Tube train. Yet our claustrophobia-inducing numbers are only set to grow.
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| Florida Pelicans appear to be fleeing the influx of humanity. See: Puerto Ricans Flood Central Florida |
While it is impossible to precisely predict population levels for the coming decades, researchers are certain of one thing: the world is going to become an increasingly crowded place. New estimates issued by the United Nations in July of 2016 predict that, by 2030, our current 7.3 billion will have increased to 8.4 billion. That figure will rise to 9.7 billion by 2050, and to as many as a mind-boggling 16.5 billion by 2100.
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| Explanation: This chart shows estimates and probabilistic projections of the total world population through 2100. The population projections are based on the probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth, based on estimates of the 2015 Revision of the World Population Prospects. These probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth were carried out with a Bayesian Hierarchical Model. The figures display the probabilistic median, and the 80 and 95 per cent prediction intervals of the probabilistic population projections, as well as the (deterministic) high and low variant (+/- 0.5 child) of the 2015 Revision of the World Population Prospects. Source: United Nationals Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division |
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World population could rise to a mind-boggling 16.5 billion by 2100
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| Lebanon Church Road, Seminary, Mississippi Distinctly uncrowded, for now. |
This begs the question: as the world becomes even more crowded, will it become practically impossible to find a patch of land free from human settlement or presence? Will we eventually overtake all remaining habitable space?
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Virtually all population growth between now and the end of the century will be in cities according to most population experts: How far will cities expand?
Answering these questions requires examining what we know about where people will likely base themselves in the future, and what life will be like then. For starters, experts predict that—reflecting current trends—an increasing number of people will live out their lives in cities. As agriculture becomes more efficient, people abandon jobs in that shrinking and difficult sector and instead take up ones in urban manufacturing or service. This has been going on for some decades. In 1930, just 30% of the world’s population lived in cities, compared to about 55% today. By 2050, however, about two-thirds will be based in urban areas.
It boils down to more than one million additional people moving into cities every five to six days from now until 2100.
Around half of the world’s population will live in smaller cities of half-a-million to three million residents. The rest will live in megacities, or those that harbor 10 million or more, which will mostly be located in developing and emerging economies such as China, India and Nigeria. Because of governance challenges, however, cities themselves probably won’t exceed far beyond 10 million or so. Instead, mega-regions—places where urban sprawl continues for miles and encompasses a number of cities, as seen today in places like the greater New York City area and China’s Pearl River Delta—will become the norm. Both cities and regions will expand geographically as well as become denser.
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Much of the future population increase will come from Africa
It takes capable governments and institutions to organize basic amenities such as freshwater, sanitation and waste disposal. Worryingly, the places that are most in need of such oversight today are also the ones where most of humanity’s growth is projected to occur. Much of the future population increase will come from Africa, which will shoot up from its current one billion people to over four billion by 2100. The Africa projections are particularly scary. A large proportion will end up in urban slums, which is not a recipe for happy living.
The problem is that Africa’s large cities—and, to some extent, Asia’s as well—are not equipped to absorb all of that population influx.
Indeed, places like Lagos, Dhaka and Mumbai already face tremendous challenges at current levels. People already buy water at great [high] prices from street vendors, human waste is all over the place and garbage is just abandoned—not to even speak of green spaces around the city or quality of habitation. We are not preparing adequately in thinking about the placement and organization, or the political and environmental security, of growing cities. Religious dogma which breeds ignorance is often to blame.
We have already used up the most productive land, rivers and water
Wealthy countries are aging, meaning their rate of growth and innovation will begin to slow. Secondly, the environmental odds of unencumbered growth are stacked against us: we have already used up the most productive land, dammed the most energetically profitable rivers and tapped into the easiest-to-reach groundwater. Finally, inequality is becoming an increasing problem. While the average American’s median income has not budged much in the past few decades, the top 1% is doing increasingly well. That phenomenon will continue into the future and in part will be driven by environmental issues.
Climate Change is a Wild Card
Climate change is another wild card that could have a significant impact on how both developed and developing urban centers play out in the future. Around 60% of all cities that currently have a million residents or more are at risk of at least one type of major natural disaster, many of them climate-related, and even the most well-organized, highly developed cities have yet to fully plan for these threats. People often don’t want to have this discussion because it’s associated with an alarmist view of climate change, but it’s worthwhile to consider what catastrophic climate change would mean for habitable space.
As exceptional drought grips the United States politicians are quiet about its consequences. Instead they are concerned with eliminating birth control and wiping out decades of environmental protection progress in the United States. What happens when there isn't enough water to go around? Curiously the Florida peninsula where no rain has fallen in 8 weeks is not included in the current Drought Monitor. Wouldn't want to scare those tourists away, would we?
Exceptional Drought
Grips the United States
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| There is little chance for survival of the world's remaining wildlife with a human population over 10 billion. Support the Nature Conservancy and the African Wildlife Foundation |
Will Antartica Be The Last Refuge of Humanity?
Cities, however, are not the only places that will experience future change due to growing populations. Rural and remote places that are not strictly protected will likely see a modest increase in human habitation, too. With a combination of climate change and technology, it’s not unthinkable that Antarctica might become inhabited, although it’s hard to imagine it being densely populated. This also means that, for those with the means to do so, finding a quiet corner free from humanity’s mark will become even more challenging. There will simply be too many other people with the same idea in mind.
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About 3% of Earth’s total land supports more than half of humanity
None of this, however, means that we will run out of actual space to live. Around half of the world’s land currently holds around 2% of the planet’s population, whereas only about 3% of total land supports more than half of humanity. But a growing population does mean that the number of relatively pristine places left to visit will also likely decrease, thanks to an ever-increasing demand for resources needed to support urban lives. There’s likely little threat of the world’s rainforests all being taken over by cities. The bigger threat is the indirect impact of urbanization on those landscapes. Cities require wood for creating buildings and furniture, agricultural land for growing food, space to dispose of millions of tones of garbage produced on a daily basis—and much more.
More on this subject:
Common sense and scientific studies have shown that improved access to birth control can be a valuable tool in slowing global warming, but many politicians are afraid to broach the subject. Birth control is also the logical solution to the surge in terrorism across Africa, the Middle East and Europe. . .but who's talking about it? No one.
Part of a river's water level is determined by the groundwater reserves in the area drained by it and the duration and intensity of monsoon rains. Water tables have been declining in the Ganges basin due to the reckless extraction of groundwater. Much of the groundwater is, anyway, already contaminated with arsenic and fluoride. A controversial UN climate report said the Himalayan glaciers could melt to a fifth of the current levels by 2035.
Evidence of declining water levels and waning health of the 2,500km (1,553 miles)-long Ganges, which supports a quarter of India's 1.3 billion people, is mounting. No one should be surprised.
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Norwegian Sea Cloud Streets
On March 17, 2016, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite, acquired this natural-color image of the cloud streets over the Norwegian Sea.
Cloud streets are long parallel bands of cumulus clouds that form when cold air blows over warmer waters and a warmer air layer (temperature inversion) rests over the top of both. In this case, cool air appears to be moving southward across Arctic sea ice toward northern Scandinavia.
The comparatively warm water gives up heat and moisture to the cold air above, and columns of heated air called thermals naturally rise through the atmosphere. The temperature inversion acts like a lid. When the rising thermals hit it, they roll over and loop back on themselves, creating parallel cylinders of rotating air. On the upper edge of these cylinders of rising air, clouds form. Along the downward side (descending air), skies are clear.
Austin Sikora
BMG Models
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