Millions vacation in Florida to soak up the state’s famed winter mildness—but this year’s snowbirds may feel more like they flew into a summer sauna. The winter of 2015-16 featured periods of exceptional warmth in Florida, yet even that high bar is being eclipsed by the persistent simmering that’s gone on for most of the last two months. In Miami, the average temperature of 74.65°F (23.7° C) for the two-month period of Dec. 2016 - Jan. 2017 is a full degree above the 73.6°F (23° C) record from 1971-72 in NOAA/NCEI data going back to 1948, and it also tops any two-month Dec-Jan interval in NWS/Miami data going back to 1895. Likewise, Key West averaged 75.25°F (24° C) for the two-month Dec-Jan period, besting the record of 74.8°F (23.8° C) of 1990-91 in NCEI records going back to 1901.
The two cities also racked up an impressive pile of daily records along the way. Between Dec. 1, 2016, and Jan. 31, 2017, a total of 11 warmest highs for the date and 6 warmest lows for the date were tied or broken in Miami, where record-keeping began in 1895. In Key West, 5 daily record highs and 6 daily warmest-low records were set. Another sign of this winter’s persistent warmth: Miami has yet to dip below 50°F. It’s only the third time in Miami history that a winter has gone this late without reaching the 40s at least once. Hand in hand with the extremely warm air, sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the adjacent Gulf of Mexico and northwest Atlantic have also been unusually high. As reported by Brian McNoldy, on January 27, the water temperature in Miami's Biscayne Bay was 80.2°. The average for the date: 70.8°.
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Fading La Niña
La Niña may have played a part in Florida’s summerlike winter. The last several months of 2016 featured weak La Niña conditions in the Pacific, and temperatures across the United States were very consistent with that: generally cooler than average toward the northwest and milder than average toward the southeast, including Florida. However, the current La Niña event appears be on ending: the cooling of the tropical equatorial Pacific has weakened and retreated to the central Pacific, while unusually warm SSTs and sultry air invade the coast of Peru and Ecuador, producing conditions more akin to El Niño than La Niña. Daily low temperatures over the weekend of around 77°F (25° C) were among the warmest on record in Lima, Peru.
The latest roundup of international climate models by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology shows that full-fledged El Niño could be in place as soon as this summer, even by the more strict Australian definition (SSTs in the Niño3.4 region of at least 0.8°C above average, vs. the 0.5°C required by NOAA).
Cooler air finally moved into the state over the last week of January 2017, producing a chilly, rainy Sunday. Fort Lauderdale tied its record lowest high for the date (62°F), as did West Palm Beach (59°F). South Florida then saw the lowest temperatures of the winter thus far, including 51°F in Miami (Mon), 51°F at Fort Lauderdale (Mon & Tues) and 43°F in West Palm Beach (Tue). The cooldown was short-lived, though, as upper-level ridging quickly ushered in more extreme warming.
Scarce Rainfall Continues
Over 60% of Florida is abnormally dry. Rivers, lakes and swamps are quickly disappearing as the heat and dry combine to cause high evaporation. When will it rain? Not much rain is forecast for February, the heart of the Florida "dry" season.
Trump's New Tactic on Climate Science Denial
Earth has just experienced three consecutive warmest years on record—2014, 2015, and 2016—which has made it difficult to find politicians who continue to deny the reality of global warming and climate change. However, denial of climate science has shifted to a new tactic: to claim that the indisputable heating of the planet is primarily a natural phenomenon, and that there is major uncertainty among scientists on the issue. These assertions are false. Based on the evidence, more than 97% of climate scientists have concluded that human-caused climate change is happening; scientists’ “best estimate” is that ALL of the global warming since 1950 has been human-caused, primarily through an increase in carbon dioxide due to the burning of fossil fuels. Many prominent members of the Trump administration, who all have ties to the fossil fuel industry, have been making false claims about about scientists’ understanding that global warming is human-caused. For example:
- During his hearing in January 2017 to become the new EPA administrator, Scott Pruitt claimed: “There is a diverse range of views regarding the key drivers of our changing climate among scientists.”
- Former Exxon-Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson, who is now President Trump’s Secretary of State, claimed in his confirmation hearing: “I agree with the consensus view that combustion of fossil fuels is a leading cause for increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. I understand these gases to be a factor in rising temperatures, but I do not believe the scientific consensus supports their characterization as the ‘key’ factor.”
- On the February 21, 2014, edition of MSNBC’s The Daily Rundown, host Chuck Todd asked future Vice President Mike Pence if he was “convinced that climate change is man-made.” Pence responded: “I don't know that that is a resolved issue in science today.” Pence similarly stated on the May 5, 2009, edition of MSNBC’s Hardball that “I think the science is very mixed on the subject of global warming.”
- Rick Perry, Trump’s nominee for Secretary of Energy, told the Senate Energy and Natural Resources committee in January: “I believe the climate is changing. I believe some of its naturally occurring and some of it is caused by man-made activity.”
Above: Global annual temperatures up to the year 2015 (thin light red, with an 11-year moving average shown as a thick dark red line) have increased steadily, even though the total amount of energy from the sun (the annual Total Solar Irradiance, thin light blue, with an 11-year moving average shown as a thick dark blue line) has decreased slightly. Climate in past eras has seen many instances of global warming, which have been caused by an increase in heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide or an increase in the amount of solar energy being absorbed by the Earth. Since solar energy cannot be to blame for the increase in global temperatures since 1950, scientists are confident that the steadily rising levels of heat trapping gases like carbon dioxide due to human activities is causing the observed global warming. Image credit: skepticalscience.com.
The best science says: ALL of the warming since 1950 is human-caused
Based on the evidence, more than 97% of climate scientists have concluded that human-caused climate change is happening. That’s about the same certainty with which scientists link smoking cigarettes to lung cancer. The latest 2013 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report—the enormous consensus scientific summary of the science of climate change prepared once every six years said this about the observed warming of Earth since 1950:
“The best estimate of the human-induced contribution to warming is similar to the observed warming over this period.” In other words, ALL of the observed warming after 1950 (0.6°C, 1.1°F) is due to humans. A total of 0.85°C (1.5°F) total global warming has been observed since 1880. The IPPC further quantified that human activity is extremely likely (at least 95% chance) to be responsible for more than half of Earth's temperature increase after 1950."
Climate change denial is not dead (January 31 op-ed by climate scientist Michael Mann.)
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/02/science/climate-change-republicans.html (February 3 article by Justin Gillis of the New York Times.)
Here’s how we know Trump’s cabinet picks are wrong on human-caused global warming (January 30 article from Dana Nuccitelli of The Guardian.)
The Trump Administration Is Filling Up With Koch Allies (December 2016 post from Ben Jervey at DeSmogBlog.)
Climate Science Legal Defense Fund (CSLDF) files brief to protect NOAA climate scientists (CSLDF post on February 1.)
Trump’s war on EPA regulations will kill jobs and a lot of people: Clean air and water standards create jobs, spur innovation, and save lives (January 25 post by Joe Romm of ThinkProgress.)
If You Liked the Inquisition, You'll Love the House Science Committee (January 31 article from Mother Jones.)
The March for Science is set for April 22 (Earth Day) in Washington D.C.
The People's Climate Movement is happening in Washington D.C. on April 29.
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