St. Johns River Flood

The post-Hurricane Irma flood of the middle St. Johns River is ongoing two weeks after the hurricane dumped a foot of rain and left the river spilling over into the broader floodplain creating catastrophic conditions for some people and worse for the fish that live in the river.  

Toxic urban runoff is causing a massive fish kill on the middle St. Johns especially in the Lake Harney to Lake Monroe to Lake Beresford areas.  Regardless, the overflowing river is picture perfect if not a bit smelly with all the dead fish and garbage it is slowly transporting northward.

Nor'Easter Will Exacerbate St. Johns River Flooding and May Lead to New Inundations

Watching the waters near Florida next week for new development

One area we need to watch for development early next week is the waters surrounding Florida. A trough of low pressure over the region will be joined by a cold front that will push south over the Florida peninsula on Saturday and then stall near South Florida by Sunday. An area of low pressure capable of developing into a tropical depression could form along the front over the weekend or early next week; this development could occur on either the Gulf or Atlantic side of the Florida Peninsula.

About 30% of the 70 members of the 0Z Wednesday GFS and European model ensemble predicted development of a tropical depression in the waters surrounding Florida by early next week, and the 12Z operational run of the GFS model predicted that an area of low pressure close to tropical depression strength would form on Saturday afternoon, a few hundred miles east of the Central Florida coast. Steering currents early next week will be pushing anything that might develop westward, into the Gulf of Mexico. The next name on the Atlantic list is Nate.

Strong high pressure will build into the northeast U.S. and down the east coast the last weekend of September while weak low pressure forms off the Florida east coast. This will greatly increase the pressure gradient over the area which will likely produce dangerous weather conditions and possibly Gales this weekend extending into the middle of next week as strong northeasterly winds and seas increase. Coastal flooding and beach erosion with dangerous rip currents will also likely occur. 

Very prolonged Nor'easter type of event, has a significant potential of trapping tidal waters again in the St. Johns River Basin during astronomically high tide period next week, quite feasibly to October 2015 levels. Astronomical tidal levels are anticipated to be .9 to 1.1 feet above normal without the winds, the combination of astronomical high tides in concert with trapped tides due to the large fetch (300 to 500 miles long) over the adjacent Atlantic Ocean of 25 to 30 mph winds may cause many vulnerable areas such as San Marco and Riverside southward into Palatka to be very susceptible to flooding during high tide with waxing then eventually full moon next week.

Additionally, heavy rain is forecast to fall the length of the St. Johns River, much of which is currently experiencing moderate to major flooding, particularly in the areas around Geneva and Lake Harney.  Discharge from the river will be slowed, stopped, or reversed at Jacksonville as the river becomes trapped by the forecast steady northeasterly winds.  This confluence of weather phenomena may lead to new inundations along the middle St. Johns River.

 Above, the bankfull river, looking north toward Lake Jesup from the SR 415 bridge.

 Above, the river is over the sea walls and spilling into downtown Sanford, Florida

 Above, one of the few boat ramps that appears to be sort-of open, at Deltona.  Boating is perilous in the current flooded conditions so the river is mostly free of watercraft.

Above, our ramp at Highbanks has disappeared beneath the flood waters.  There is a stern sign that says "Trespassers Will Be Prosecuted" leading us to believe the river is closed.

While we were unaware of any official ban on boating on the St. Johns River we have seen virtually no traffic on the river in recent days aside from canoes or kayaks.  We were able to find one executive order, for Seminole County, banning river access during nighttime hours (see below).  Boating at any time of day while the river is flooded could be perilous.

Millions of Dead Fish Make for Nightmare Conditions In and Near the St. Johns River

Biological Magnification

Today we noticed more vultures and wading birds feasting on dead fish.  This is not necessarily a good thing, because of biological magnification.  Whatever toxins killed the fish (likely petrochemical and fertilizer runoff) could be transferred to whatever eats them.  

Biological magnification refers to the process whereby certain substances such as pesticides or heavy metals move up the food chain, work their way into rivers or lakes, and are eaten by aquatic organisms such as fish, which in turn are eaten by large birds, animals or humans.  In the process of moving through the food chain the toxins are increased exponentially in each successive individual.

We've spotted mats of hundreds of dead fish floating everywhere from Blue Spring to neighborhood streets in Geneva to downtown Sanford to the Deltona-Debary waterfronts. 

Water was temporarily over SR 46 around the Brevard, Seminole, Volusia County line near Lake Harney.

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