If the forecasts for first week of March are verified, the groundhog may have to go into hiding over its early February prediction of an early spring. One of the coldest weeks of the winter season, compared to normal, is on its way.
At peak, it will feel more like midwinter than early spring for much of the Lower 48.
“The most unusually cold air in the Northern Hemisphere is set to nose-dive into the U.S. to start March,” tweeted Ben Noll, an atmospheric scientist based overseas.
What that means on the ground is that large portions of the north-central U.S. could struggle to get above zero, with widespread nighttime lows in the minus-10 to minus-20 range a decent bet in that region. It’s also possible that every state except perhaps Georgia, South Carolina and Florida will face high temperatures at or below freezing during the stretch.
This morning, DTN Weather, a provider of data and forecasts, highlighted the widespread nature of the massive cold snap slated to enter the Lower 48 as March gets going.
“Temperatures will run 20-30 degrees below normal in spots,” it wrote.
This weekend is looking #cold across the central U.S. In fact, it could be record cold for many locations. The image below shows 53 forecast high temperatures on Sunday that have the potential to break, tie, or come within 1° of their daily record. https://t.co/EfV9dBHTR5 🥶 pic.twitter.com/MNhJc07Wzd— NWS WPC (@NWSWPC) February 27, 2019
Some locations seem likely to end up even colder than 30 degrees below normal. While the forecast highlighted above is still at a range where confidence in details remains on the low side, it is also very impressive for a five-day average, one that will smooth some of the extremes seen during shorter time scales.
Around March 4 or 5, there could be a day or two with temperatures 20 to 40 degrees below normal encompassing about one-third of the country, from Montana to Wisconsin in the north and then sweeping south across most of the central United States between the Rockies and Mississippi River. The cold ultimately makes it to the Mexico border with Texas and into the Gulf of Mexico.
In addition to the cold being extreme for such a late date in winter, it is also expected to affect an unusually large part of the contiguous United States. Brian Brettschneider, a climatologist from Alaska, points out the 90 percent odds of below-normal temperatures over one of the greatest portions of the country since such forecasts began in 2014.
Some places are waiting for the big cold to arrive. Others continue to live it.
Even before the advertised Arctic outbreak to come, much of the north-central portion of the country is already dealing with an extra deep kind of freeze. In Montana, for instance, wind chills below zero are anticipated for much of Tuesday.
Actual temperatures were near or below zero for lows in the Dakotas, Montana, Minnesota and Wisconsin on Tuesday morning. Single digits stretched well south into portions of Oklahoma and Texas.
Snow is overtaking the landscape in the high country of the Sierra Nevada mountain range in California. (Squaw Valley Alpine Meadows)
It’s a record-breaking month for a number of ski resorts.
The latest in a nonstop series of winter storms is dumping additional feet of snow on major mountain ranges along the West Coast, breaking records along the way.
In California’s Sierra Nevada, Squaw Valley has notched its snowiest month on record, Mammoth Mountain has seen in its snowiest February, and Homewood Mountain has surpassed 500 inches for the season. Sierra-at-Tahoe has dubbed the onslaught of snow “Februburied.”
When world-renowned ski areas marvel at the massive amount of snow, you know something incredible is happening.
With February totals as high as 300 inches (25 feet!) now reported, this month has gone from epic to unbelievable. It’s great news for the region’s water supply, and there’s little question that skiing is going deep into summer this year.
Squaw Valley Alpine Meadows reported its astounding 300-inch February snow tally Wednesday morning. This bests its old monthly record of 282 inches set in January 2017.
Winter storm buries Oregon in snow
Extreme winter weather covered parts of Oregon under several inches of snow on Feb. 25.
Repeated heavy snowfalls have been enough to force resorts to shut down on more than one occasion this month.
In addition to the deep powder, ripping winds have been common, as have avalanches. Although this is a region known for its giant snowstorms, road crews have been having a tough time keeping up. As one example, I-80 remained closed through the mountains Wednesday morning because of the overwhelming snowfall.
Although the Arctic onslaught in early March is set to affect much of the Lower 48, the worst of its cold seems likely to fit into a similar pattern seen of late.
The general story of the past several weeks has been of major to extreme cold being centered on the northern Plains region and easing slightly heading west and east. The difference from normal temperature maps so far in February shows that idea well. A huge chunk of real estate is 20 degrees or more below normal, which is exceptional on a monthly time scale.
A place like Great Falls in Montana, just to the east of the continental divide, is running a whopping 27 degrees below normal for the month of February.
Great Falls broke another record low Tuesday morning, with a reading of at least minus-22. The average temperature there is about minus-1 this month to date. That’s the second coldest February on record for the city, and the coldest since 1936, when observations were taken at a different location nearby. Third place there is an incredible 10 degrees warmer!
Although Great Falls might not get its coldest February ever recorded, it is still a remarkable chill compared to recent history. A number of other locations nearby, like Rapid City in South Dakota, are testing similar marks. The upcoming cold spell should again target these areas with some of the harshest conditions.
While long-term ideas into mid-March tend to show warmer and more stable conditions returning to the southeast in particular, there’s seemingly no immediate end to the persistent cold pattern in the north and northwest anytime soon.
Periods of moderate to heavy mountain snowfall will continue through Thursday morning creating hazardous mountain travel conditions. Mountain travel is highly discouraged! #CAwx pic.twitter.com/kBynnFIzpc— NWS Sacramento (@NWSSacramento) February 28, 2019
Is extreme weather related to climate change?
Extreme weather, like the polar vortex, is becoming more common as the Arctic continues to be disrupted by climate change.
‘Februburied:’ Up to 25 feet of snow has fallen in mountains on the West Coast this February
The latest in a nonstop series of winter storms is dumping additional feet of snow on major mountain ranges along the West Coast, breaking records along the way.
In California’s Sierra Nevada, Squaw Valley has notched its snowiest month on record, Mammoth Mountain has seen in its snowiest February, and Homewood Mountain has surpassed 500 inches for the season. Sierra-at-Tahoe has dubbed the onslaught of snow “Februburied.”
When world-renowned ski areas marvel at the massive amount of snow, you know something incredible is happening.
With February totals as high as 300 inches (25 feet!) now reported, this month has gone from epic to unbelievable. It’s great news for the region’s water supply, and there’s little question that skiing is going deep into summer this year.
Squaw Valley Alpine Meadows reported its astounding 300-inch February snow tally Wednesday morning. This bests its old monthly record of 282 inches set in January 2017.
Check out these 3 day rainfall totals across #NorCal! Significant amounts were recorded for many locations. The heaviest rain is now past with mainly showers likely through tomorrow. Flooding concerns remain. #CAwx pic.twitter.com/6C2xjL7yJN— NWS Sacramento (@NWSSacramento) February 27, 2019
Situated on the northwest side of the Lake Tahoe region, Squaw was in prime position to receive moisture from the latest atmospheric river that has bombarded Northern California with serious flooding. Squaw Valley has now seen snow on 18 days this month, including an incredible 38 to 40 inches on Feb. 10. Seven days have featured at least a foot and a half of snowfall.
About 30 miles to the south of Squaw Valley, Sierra-at-Tahoe has recorded its snowiest February and it is also knocking on its record for the snowiest month. Through Tuesday, the mountain picked up 237 inches of snow this February. It needs about 18 inches to tie the record for its snowiest month: 255 inches in January 2017.
At Mammoth Mountain, in the south-central Sierra, this latest round of extreme snowfall has focused to the north. That’s not stopping the snow entirely, or the snow records.
The 202 inches that have fallen this month make this the snowiest February for Mammoth, and the third-snowiest month overall. It still has a chance to bump up a notch or so. The No. 2 month is 209 inches in December 2010. In January 2017, a whopping 245.5 inches were recorded.
Not to be outdone, mega snowfalls have also piled up in parts of Oregon in recent days. This region is running above normal for precipitation over the past several weeks as well. The latest round delivered 42 inches at Mount Bachelor Ski Area in 48 hours from Sunday into Monday, according to the Statesman Journal.
It's always interesting seeing how the snow changes over time. Here is a time lapse from Soldier Mountain Ski Area. #idwx pic.twitter.com/6b6ggoTxcX— NWS Boise (@NWSBoise) February 27, 2019
Extreme winter weather covered parts of Oregon under several inches of snow on Feb. 25.
Repeated heavy snowfalls have been enough to force resorts to shut down on more than one occasion this month.
In addition to the deep powder, ripping winds have been common, as have avalanches. Although this is a region known for its giant snowstorms, road crews have been having a tough time keeping up. As one example, I-80 remained closed through the mountains Wednesday morning because of the overwhelming snowfall.
UPDATE: interstate 80 remains CLOSED this morning from Colfax to the Nevada state line for snow removal operations. No ETO yet. We will issue an update as soon as possible. pic.twitter.com/eNysKIcFRg— Caltrans District 3 (@CaltransDist3) February 27, 2019
While these monthly snowfall totals are hard to fathom, it seems the high marks should fall short of the snowiest month all time for the state of California. Per weather.com, Tamarack, Calif., owns the snowiest month on record in the state, when 390 inches was recorded in January 1911.
In the current case, missing that kind of record may be a function of the shortest month of the year as much as anything.
The precipitation train keeps on coming, and it is expected to continue into the near future. Two or three storms are slated to move inland from the Pacific Ocean during the first week to 10 days of March.
Given the reliance on a deep and waterlogged snow pack to keep rivers flowing and reservoirs filled throughout the year, snowfall which is 130 to 150 percent of normal and climbing is certainly great news, at least once the short-term impacts of too much precipitation at once ease.
Meanwhile its Always Summer on Instagram
Inst@famous
Israel's Rony Gilman
Management by @ronenorzarfati
No comments:
Post a Comment