Hurricane Dorian's Path to Florida

Strengthening Hurricane Dorian passes Puerto Rico on August 28, 2019.
Will the storm impact Florida?

The buzz in Florida today is whether Hurricane Dorian will strike the east coast Labor Day weekend or whether the intense media attention is all hype. It is notable that very few hurricanes have struck Central Florida from the east, especially not strong hurricanes.

Latest HMON model forecast
HMON = Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic Model

My source for real, scientific hurricane updates on an hourly basis is Levi Cowan, PhD candidate at FSU @TropicalTidbits on twitter or tropicaltidbits.com where one can monitor the latest model runs on their own with a little practice.  Levi also releases an in depth meteorological analysis of storm genesis and motion every evening during hurricane season.  For a more broad view of the hurricane situation check out Mike's Weather Page which in turn links back to data from Levi's site.

For photos of the build up and aftermath of Hurricane Dorian (and Florida nature in general) 

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Notice the forest behind Ecofina Creek's Pitt Spring.  This area remains devastated from 2018's Hurricane Michael.  Photo:  Phillip Lott

Currently the National Hurricane Center is forecasting a formidable storm to strike near Cape Canaveral with winds sustained at 115mph on Sunday night, September 1.  The NHC cautions that their average forecast track error at 120 hours is, however, 200 miles.  200 miles is huge in terms of damage possibilities as all Floridians know.  So for now, we watch and wait.

Above is the latest HMON forecast.  HMON stands for Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic model.  The HMON is a new Hurricane forecast system running operationally at the National Weather Service NCEP. This new release has been fully tested and compared with the discontinued Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Hurricane Model (GHM) results and is considered its replacement.

The American Model (GFS); Global Forecast System has been in NWS operations since 1980.  This model was recently upgraded and the upgraded runs have consistently been showing Hurricane Dorian striking Florida further north than other global models.  In this latest, 12:00 Aug 28, 2019 run the GFS is more in line with other global models showing a formidable Hurricane Dorian striking somewhere near Daytona Beach.

The GFS-legacy model has the storm a little stronger and a little further south at landfall (above).

The CMC (Canadian Meteorological Center) model brings the storm into Florida 100 miles south of the Cape in its latest run.

The ECMWF model (European or European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) is trending Hurricane Dorian further south on the Florida peninsula, toward the Palm Beaches.

The NAVGEM (Navy Global Environmental Model) brings the storm in north of the Cape.

The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model shows a strong hurricane striking Cape Canaveral early on Sep 1.  The HWRF provides operational guidance for forecasters at the NHC.  The model uses data from satellite, buoys, and reconnaissance aircraft, making it able to access more meteorological data than any other hurricane model.

For comparison, on August 12, 2004 Hurricane Charley approached Florida with a 947 mb central pressure and an estimated windspeed in excess of 130 mph.  At landfall Charley had a pressure of 941 mbar.  

So, watch the models, and watch the millibars for some idea of the forecast strength.  Above is a closeup of the HWRF model prediction off Cape Canaverl (945 mbar).

 And always consult the National Hurricane Center for official forecasts and probabilities.