Wild Weather Forecast for Florida Christmas

A Gulf storm producing a heavy rain event is becoming more likely this weekend, but model differences still exist thus there is decreased confidence in the exact locations that could see the heaviest rain. What is more certain is that a closed 500mb low (roughly 18,000 feet above sea level) over east Texas will dip sharply southeast across Louisiana into the northeast Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, Dec 21, 2019.

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This vigorous and potent upper level low is forecast to straddle the Gulf Coast States and north Florida Saturday, overnight through early Monday, Dec. 21-23.  This activity will entice a surface low to develop and strengthen over the north-central Gulf of Mexico with the surface low moving across north-central Florida on Sunday and Sunday night, Dec 22.

Deep moisture is forecast to pool ahead of this storm system with an increasing heavy rainfall threat beginning late Saturday overnight and continuing into Sunday evening.  Widespread 2-3 inch rain totals are likely, with locally higher amounts.  The exact position of the surface low center and forward speed are coming into focus with each new model run.

Radar Simulation for 6 am Sunday, December 22, 2019
showing strong storm centered over Florida panhandle whipping
energy (storms) into the Central Florida peninsula.

The models diverge on the timing of this storm event with the ECMWF currently 6-12 hours slower than the GFS. Rapid mid level height falls (rapid low pressure event) will induce strong vertical motion with a surface low developing in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The low will become vertically stacked (quite strong) as it gets captured and pulled north by the parent 500mb feature.

Latest medium range model guidance slws the system down with the main effects beginning late overnight Saturday or early Sunday morning.  There will also be a window of favorable wind shear with some storm rotation possible overnight Saturday into Sunday.  While the potential exists, the eventual magnitude of the threat is yet to be forecast.

The potential rainfall from the forecast storm is significant:  3-5 inches over a large part of Florida.

At this time, the potential for heavy rainfall in Central Florida appears to be greatest from Tampa to Kissimmee to Titusville northward, and for areas along the immediate Space and Treasure Coasts. The track of the surface low will determine where the heaviest rain falls. 

The ECMWF indicates a track north into the FL panhandle and across southern Georgia, above, centering the storm just off shore of Georgia-South Carolina at noon on Monday, December 23, 2019.  In this scenario there is significant rain and wind event ongoing in Central Florida.

The GFS currently tracks the low more or less across the same path but now slower than the ECMWF. 

Warm Front Triple Point Danger Exists

Additionally, forecasters will be monitoring the position of the warm front associated with the low and any other "spin up" lows that may develop. Robust upglide will likely overspread the central peninsula of Florida with the approach of the warm front through early Sunday, with all the global models indicating a secondary triple point low (resembling a northern stream event) developing over the central peninsula. The messy dual-lobed deep layer low then proceeds to slide slowly east across the peninsula and into the Atlantic by Monday night.

A triple point in meteorology refers to the intersection point between two boundaries (dry line, outflow boundary, cold front, etc.), often a focus for thunderstorm development. Triple point also may refer to a point on the gust front of a supercell, where the warm moist inflow, the rain-cooled outflow from the forward flank downdraft, and the rear flank downdraft all intersect; this point is a favored location for tornado development (or redevelopment).  There is currently no forecast for tornadoes with this system but in Florida winter storms are always capable of significant spin.

3-7 inches of rain are currently forecast across the Central Florida peninsula
and the Florida panhandle over the week preceding Christmas 2019

The currently forecast period of heaviest rainfall is from Saturday night into Sunday with total amounts ranging up to 8-inches.  This is very welcome news for lake and spring lovers in Central Florida but will be problematic for developers and new residents who have moved into flood prone areas in recent dry years. 

El Niño is not to blame

El Niño conditions are currently neutral.

After 10 years of relatively dry weather in Florida and massive, uncontrolled development there are many areas of Central Florida that will be in for an unwelcome surprise when "normal" weather patterns return, including the occasional rainy and stormy winter.   It should be noted, however, that rainy, stormy winters are more common in Florida during El Niño years.  

Parts of Central Florida received over 3-inches of rain a couple of days ago in another such stormy, rainy, windy event.  

After the storm passes warm, balmy weather will dominate making for a warm and sunny Christmas Day (temperatures should be near 80°(27°C) across Central Florida on Christmas).
We've Read:
A Christmas Story

This 88-year-old woman boarded her seven-hour flight. Then a man surprised her with his business-class ticket.

Violet Allison was just getting settled into her economy seat on an overnight Virgin Atlantic flight from New York to London when another passenger walked up to her row and asked her a question she never, ever thought she’d hear.

“Excuse me, would you like to fly first class?” said Jack Littlejohn, to which Allison replied in disbelief, “You’re joking.”

The unexpected journey for Allison was chronicled in a now-viral Facebook post by a flight attendant named Leah Amy. “Of the hundreds of flights I’ve operated, I’ve had the pleasure of looking after footballers, supermodels and some Hollywood movie stars but let me tell you about my two favourite passengers EVER!” she wrote.

In Allison’s retelling of the flight, after Littlejohn offered the trade, he went on: “Yeah, I’ll give you my seat, and you can fly first class,” and have all the amenities that go with it, including dinner, drinks and a reclining bed.

“Do you believe that?” Allison said to the passenger who was sitting next to her. “Do you think I should do that?” she asked, and the woman told her to go for it.

Littlejohn helped collect her bags and luggage, then she followed him to the first-class cabin on the double-decker aircraft, where he showed her to her seat for the seven-hour flight.

Littlejohn “then sat on the row of seats directly next to the economy toilets and never made a peep or asked for anything the rest of the flight,” Amy wrote. “No fuss, no attention, literally did it out of the kindness of his own heart.”

Of the hundreds of flights I’ve operated, I’ve had the pleasure of looking after footballers, supermodels and some...Posted by Leah Amy on Tuesday, December 10, 2019

Thousand of messages of support and heart emoji have poured in to support the pair for the kindness and generosity on display. Many made allusions to the fact the story has a connection to the movie “Titanic,” whose protagonists are named Jack and Rose.

Littlejohn had been in New York with his mother and sister for a charity event his brother put on in Times Square called the World’s Biggest Sleep Out, dedicated to ending global homelessness. It was when Littlejohn and his family were leaving back home to Scotland that his mom surprised the siblings with business-class seats.

He said that even though the surprise was nice, it didn’t sit well with him because of the inequality between business and economy class. On the plane, economy passengers had to walk through business to get to their seats in the lower portion of the plane, a comparison Littlejohn called “unhealthy.”

After telling his mom of his intentions to give away his seat, Littlejohn went in search of a worthy passenger. When he saw Allison, he instantly knew.

“You couldn’t have found a sweeter lady,” he said of the 88-year-old.

That’s when he sat on her armrest and asked, “Excuse me, are you traveling by yourself? I’ve got a seat in business, and I’d like to give it to you."

Amy captured the moment for the world to see in photos. “Violet is 88 years old, has been a nurse in both the UK and over in America. She travels to New York to see her daughter, but hasn’t been able to for a while because of a knee replacement. Her dream has always been to sit at the front, and Jack made that come true."

Allison says she was well taken care of for the night and credits the crew during the flight with being welcoming and for waving at her throughout. Before the plane landed, Littlejohn went up to check on Allison; that’s when Amy asked if she could take a snapshot with them. When the flight landed, Amy gathered the group together to take a picture of them all. After some chatting, they all said goodbye and went along their way.

Virgin has called it a “lovely story.” Littlejohn says he would like to see the airline go further by offering Allison lifetime business class seats for travel to New York.

“You should of seen her face, when I tucked her in her bed after supper,” Amy wrote.