Florida's Early Spring

The first flight of butterflies has begun across Florida and non-native sunflower trees remained in bloom throughout the winter.  Above, an Eastern Tiger Butterfly (Papilio glaucus) more common in summer is seen feeding on Sunflower Trees (Tithonia diversifolia).

Warm Florida Winter Has Leaves Popping Out Way Early

How do you know when Florida's spring has begun?  Is it the appearance of the first tiny leaves on the trees, or the first warm week in January?  2019-2020 it feels like there never really was any winter.  December and January saw well above normal temperatures for most of the months and the landscape is awash with green and cars are covered with yellow pollen.

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Left; Black Cherry (Prunus serotina) are the first trees to sprout in Florida.  Black Cherry started sprouting in December.  Right with sun; Sunflower Trees (Tithonia diversifolia) are a Mexican and Central American herbaceous plant in the family Asteraceae, that in a normal year would die back from frost.  The past few winters there has been no frost so the Sunflower Trees are huge, soaring to 20-feet or more. 

So while it may be freezing today in New England, mild winter temperatures across the U.S. over the last couple of weeks have leaves bursting out as much as three weeks early from Texas to North Carolina and south.

Spring Leaf Index Anomaly Map
Leaves appeared 22 days before normal in North Carolina

Leaves appeared 22 days ahead of the 30-year average in Wilmington, North Carolina, 17 days ahead in Charleston, South Carolina, and 10 days early in Austin, Texas, according to the U.S. National Phenology Network, which uses a national observer network to track changes in lilacs and honeysuckles, normally the first to show leaves in the spring.

Florida Phlox is already blooming across the highlands of Central Florida, a few months earlier than normal.

While the phenomenon may foreshadow an early spring, it also has its bad side. Frosts and freezes ahead can kill off flowering buds. And if the warmth continues to spread north, it can wake up apple, cherry and peach trees early, limit maple syrup sap harvests and bring on an early start to allergy season.  We've already seen a surge in pollen counts across Florida.

The winter warmth is forecast to continue.
Nebraska and Kansas currently forecast to be 18° C above normal on February 3, 2020
(European Model, pivotalweather.com)

“A lot of people are taking note, saying this isn’t normal,” said Theresa Crimmins, the Network’s assistant director, who works at the University of Arizona. “I am not sure we will see the crazy early spring that we saw in 2017, but it is starting out that way.”

Some Florida Black Cherries are blooming with old leaves and fruit still on the trees.
An early spring or The Day After Tomorrow?

Also see: Natural gas dives on ‘blowtorch warmth’ in dead of winter

In 2017, record-warm temperatures were recorded in 15 states in February. The warm start caused plants to burst out across the U.S. only to get trapped by cold in March that froze off cherry blossoms in Washington, and peaches in Georgia and South Carolina. Blueberry crops were ruined and winter wheat broke its dormancy in some places as much as six weeks early.

Spring leaf out has arrived in the Southeast over three weeks earlier than a long-term average (1981-2010) in some locations.  Austin, Texas is 10 days early, Jackson, Mississippi and Charleston, South Carolina are 17 days early, and Wilmington, North Carolina is 22 days early.

Spring leaf out has also arrived in parts of southern California and Arizona between 3 and 14 days early. 

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In some areas of Central Florida Coreopsis and Phlox are already blanketing roadsides and open fields.

The phenology network gets most of its funding from the U.S. Geological Survey and Crimmins and her colleagues work for the University of Arizona.

The Spring Bloom Index for January 26, 2020 shows the Everglades and points north already experiencing spring bloom.