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| A severely water-depleted Lake Theresa at the start of June 2020. |
Tropical Storm Cristobal in combination with other weather systems promises to bring a wet start to rainy season across east central Florida. The rains are welcomed as most of Florida experienced an extremely hot and dry winter and spring. Lake Theresa's water level is down 24-inches from normal (above).
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The last week of May already brought ~9-inches of rain to east central Florida so we are on our way to recovery from the brutally hot and dry winter and spring. The 9-inches of rainfall did not result in lakes rising by 9-inches, however. Most east central Florida lakes only saw small increases in water levels (1-3") as the rains percolated into very dry soils.
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| "Marsh Pinks" (Sabatia grandiflora) now color the lakeshore as rainy season begins in Florida. This wildflower is found only in Florida in marshes and wet praries. |
Marsh-Pinks
Marsh-pinks are annuals and members of the gentian family (Gentianaceae). Flowers are bisexual with fused sepals and petals. The stamens are attached to the inside of the petals. Marsh-pinks emerge as seedlings in early spring and quickly attain their mature stature by summer. Large-flowered marsh-pinks (above) produce little foliage at the base of the plant. Because it is an annual and requires moist to wet soil, marsh-pink is not manageable in a garden setting and is scarce during drought.
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| GFS Mode simulated rainfall for first week of June 2020. |
This week an elongated surface ridge axis across Florida will begin to retreat as an upper trough (cool front) descends down the Mississippi Valley, with Tropical Storm Cristobal spinning but making no progress near the Yucatan Peninsula. The position of each of these features will drive deep southerly flow across the Florida peninsula, along with a surge of tropical moisture.
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| As much as 4-10 inches of rain may fall over the central peninsula and panhandle regions of Florida thanks in part to Tropical Storm Cristobal's forecast landfall. |
Forecast precipital water (the measure of the depth of liquid water at the surface that would result after precipitating all the water vapor in a vertical column of atmosphere over a given location) will remain above 2.00' through the end of the first week of June. This soupy airmass will guarantee a high chance of rain each day.
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| Tropical Storm Cristobal is forecast to make landfall in Louisiana. |
By late Friday or early Saturday, June 6, 2020, Cristobal is forecast to eject northward toward Louisiana, potentially gaining strength as it gains latitude over the weekend.
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| Tropical Storm Cristobal possible tracks forecast by the ECMWF (European) weather model on June 3, 2020. All paths maintain saturated airmass for Florida. |
The east coast of Florida will remain in the swath of deep tropical moisture. Rain chances will remain 50-70% through the weekend. As the Tropical Storm makes landfall winds will veer slightly southwest, but enough to rains temperatures a few degrees but not shunt away any of the moisture over the peninsula.
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| Tropical Storm Cristobal possible tracks forecast by the GFS (American) weather model on June 3, 2020. All paths maintain saturated airmass for Florida. |
Even the remnants of Cristobal will leave Florida in a swath of higher-than-normal moisture raising rain chances into the second week of June.
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| Florida rainy season koi pond scene. |
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