 |
| The anomalously cold weather will be the coldest in the South on Christmas Eve with the bitter cold forecast to be centered over eastern Tennessee. |
In the days leading up to Christmas two extreme, disruptive and dangerous weather systems will affect large parts of the Lower 48 states: a very intense storm that will produce blinding snow, heavy rain and howling winds, and an associated outbreak of exceptionally cold air.
For Florida it will be nearly as cold as the Christmas 1989 cold outbreak when on the 24th and 25th of December, Miami experienced freezing temperatures and Key West tied its December low of 44°F. During the 1989 cold outbreak Florida suffered rolling power outages, ruptured water pipes, and treacherous icy roads. A record low of 8° was recorded in High Springs (near Gainesville) and parts of I-10 were closed after 3 multi-vehicle accidents on icy bridges. In Lake County, north of Orlando, much of the 117,000 acres of citrus groves froze, and citrus producers would largely abandon the region for points further south on the peninsula after the big freeze.
Follow Phillip
Preparations have already begun in Florida to move the sensitive plants that can be moved and cover or heat the rest. Smudge pots are in place and prepared for use if temperatures fall below 32°. Currently freezing temperatures are forecast for all points north of a line from Tampa to the Cape on Friday, Saturday and Sunday nights (Dec 23-25, 2022).
The large, powerful storm is set to explosively develop in the Midwest and Great Lakes late this week, unleashing heavy snow and strong winds — and the potential for blizzard conditions in some areas.
 |
| A bomb cyclone is a storm whose central pressure drops over 24 millibars in 24 hours. These cold core system's satellite presentation resembles a hurricane. |
Possibly qualifying as a “bomb cyclone” because of its projected rapid strengthening, the storm could bring extreme impacts from snow and wind from the Plains to the interior Northeast between Thursday and Christmas Eve, seriously affecting several major population centers including Kansas City, St. Louis, Des Moines, Chicago, Milwaukee and Buffalo.
While not everyone will see heavy snow this week, few areas outside California and the Southwest United States will escape what the National Weather Service is describing as “a massive surge of arctic air.”
Exceptionally cold and windy air will be drawn southeastward from Canada by this potent storm. The cold will seep into Texas — and eventually Florida. Houston could see temperatures in the teens and wind chills near zero Friday morning. On Thursday, subzero temperatures may stretch from Denver to Minneapolis with temperatures 40° to 50° below normal from Montana to the Texas Panhandle.
In some places, this will be the coldest December weather since at least 1989. By the second half of the week, much of the northern Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes will have subzero temperatures — even for highs — with wind chills as low as minus-55° near the Canadian border.
Along the southward-diving Arctic cold front, a very intense storm system will develop. It will tap into jet stream energy, quickly ballooning into a major mid-latitude cyclone.
The counterclockwise-spinning storm system will drag a strip of warmth up the Eastern Seaboard, leading to mostly rain, but cold air crashing south on its backside will support a swath of heavy snow combined with punishing winds between the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.
The combination of snow and wind will lead to whiteout conditions and impossible travel in some areas. Power outages are an additional concern, particularly considering the extremely cold temperatures predicted.
In its forecast discussion Monday, the National Weather Service office serving the Chicago warned of “rapidly deteriorating conditions by late Thursday afternoon, with dangerous blizzard conditions appearing increasingly likely Thursday night into Friday.” It advised anyone with travel plans at that time to “begin to consider alternate arrangements.”
Other cities in the region which could be seriously affected include Des Moines, Madison, Milwaukee, Indianapolis, Detroit and perhaps Cleveland and Buffalo.
Weather models have been inconsistent in their depictions of where the storm’s track will go; shifts of just 100 miles could mean the difference between a high-impact Chicago blizzard and a mix of wind-whipped rain and snow.
As the storm organizes Thursday morning, a strip of wind-driven snow will sweep across Kansas and Nebraska, with snow likely breaking out over the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes as the day wears on. Farther east, rain will affect the Eastern Seaboard along the cold front, although snow and ice are possible when the precipitation begins in the Appalachians where cold air remains entrenched.
Through the day on Friday, heavy snow and wind will blast portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, although it’s too early to predict which areas will be hardest hit. Meanwhile, heavy rain will plow northeast into New England and perhaps flip to snow before ending Friday afternoon and night.
Even in areas unaffected by heavy snow, the storm will be a major wind producer, posing a problem for air travel over large parts of the eastern U.S. — especially by Friday.
 |
| The ECMWF European Model forecasts the bitter cold to be slightly further north on Christmas Eve than does the American Model. 100 miles could make a huge difference in Florida. |
It’s important to note that uncertainty exists with regards to the track of the storm system, which will have enormous bearings on how much precipitation falls and where the rain-snow line sets up. Regardless, confidence is growing in a jackpot zone of at least 12 to 18 inches of snow, which will coincide with strong winds to yield visibilities below a quarter mile or whiteout conditions.
Cold air is already oozing out of Canada across the northern Intermountain West and northern Plains, with temperatures set to drop at least 40° below average. Wind chill watches, warnings and advisories blanket the Dakotas, most of Montana, parts of Wyoming and Colorado and even western fringes of the Corn Belt.
The alerts herald the arrival of an even more significant deep freeze that will plunge the Plains into an air mass more typical of northern Alaska. When the Arctic front arrives at any particular location, temperatures will drop suddenly and winds will rapidly strengthen.
“Dangerous to life-threatening wind chills as low as 55° below zero [are] possible,” wrote the National Weather Service in Bismarck. “The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 5 minutes. Hypothermia could develop shortly thereafter.”
 |
| Wind chill forecast for noon on Christmas Day, 2022 20° wind chill forecast for Central Florida |
Across the Dakotas, the coldest temperatures will be observed between Wednesday and Friday, with highs barely poking above minus-10° and lows in the minus-20° to minus-30° range. Billings, Mont., is predicted to have a high of minus-16 on Wednesday; that would match the record coldest maximum for the day set back in 1990.
In Minneapolis, Wednesday and Thursday could both feature highs around zero, with lows of minus-5° to minus-7°.
 |
| Its definitely going to be smudge pot weather in parts of Florida |
Denver is under a wind chill watch for Wednesday night through Friday morning for wind chills flirting with minus-30°. The Mile High City is expecting a very sudden drop in temperature. On Wednesday afternoon, the high is expect to reach 40°; eight hours later, at midnight, it’s projected to be near zero. Thursday’s high temperature probably won’t eclipse zero and the low both Wednesday and Thursday night is expected to be around minus-12°.
The frigid air will be far-reaching. By Thursday night, the leading edge of the cold will blast through Little Rock and Dallas, and by early Friday, it will surge to the Gulf Coast.
Little Rock could have a low of 8° on Thursday night, shy of the 2° record set in 1989. Dallas is forecast to plunge to 9°, which misses the record of 3 degrees. In St. Louis, a low of zero is likely Thursday night. Memphis may fall down to 5°.
Even New Orleans may only see a high of 37° on Friday, which is just a few degrees above a record low maximum for the date. Once again, the cold air outbreak of 1989 claims many records.
Arctic Sea Smoke in Pensacola?
There’s a growing chance that cities like New Orleans, Mobile, Panama City, Lake Charles, La, and perhaps even Pensacola may be treated to a rare display of “Arctic sea smoke” on Friday morning. Resembling steam, the rare type of fog occurs when bitterly-cold air blows over milder waters.
The current water temperature at Pensacola Beach is 69°, plenty warm enough to produce some significant steam when the air temperature rapidly drops into the 20°s F.
Particularly problematic will be the abrupt arrival of the cold air, which could bring a flash freeze all the way down to the Gulf Coast. In areas with standing water left on untreated roadways, that could translate to a rapid icing concern. The sudden cold could also burst pipes.
 |
| Arctic Sea Smoke in Maine. We may see these scenes in bays across the Panhandle of Florida on Friday and Saturday 23-24, Dec. |
The core of the cold will reach Chicago and surrounding areas of the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday. The Weather Service predicts “[d]angerous bitter cold with wind chills -20°F and lower Friday night into Christmas Day (Sunday) regardless of the track of the late week storm system.”
The cold will reach the East Coast Friday night when temperatures will drop sharply. For both Christmas Day and Christmas Eve, temperatures will be about 10° to 25° below normal and the coldest since 1989 in many locations.
Even Florida will feel the chill. Lows are forecast to dip into the 30s in Tampa and Orlando Friday and Saturday nights, while points north of a line from about Tampa to the Cape may see temperatures a few degrees below freezing. That means its time to bring in the sensitive plants and cover the ones you cannot move.
Florida's endangered and beloved manatees have already begun streaming into Blue Spring in Orange City. Park managers expect over 700 manatees to spend the next week in and around the spring run where water temperatures will remain a toasty 72°F.
 |
| A manatee in the Blue Spring Run during a cold weather outbreak in 2010. The park will be open through the weekend but it will be a cold wait to get in if it reaches capacity. I usually go either early morning or late afternoon to view the manatee migration. |
No comments:
Post a Comment