Above: This graphic issued by the NOAA Hydrometeorological Predication Center shows the projected rainfall from the developing low pressure system and indicates about 5.00" (127 mm) of rain falling over east central Florida (above) in 5 days (red colors indicate rain in excess of 5.00 inches).
Click on the image to enlarge.
Exciting news for drought-weary Floridians. . .
Recent runs by all of the computer forecast models predict that an area of low pressure will develop near Florida this weekend or early next week. The counter-clockwise flow around this low will bring strong winds and heavy rains to Northeast Florida and the Georgia coast, and it is possible this storm will develop into a tropical or subtropical storm. The situation is similar to Subtropical Storm Four of October 4, 1974, according to the latest extended forecast discussion from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.
Wherever the storm forms we could certainly use the rain.
Above: In this model consensus map the Low is centered off of Key West, Florida on Tuesday, October 11, 2011. There is a strong High over New England that won't allow the Low (should it form) to move away quickly. The pressure gradient between the strong low and the strong high should cause onshore flow into Northeast Florida with wind and heavy rains.
The 1974 storm brought 10 - 14 inches of rain to the east coast of Florida and strong onshore winds of 30 - 40 mph that caused beach erosion and coastal flooding.
Above: This graphic from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center hints at some event that will bring Florida much-needed rainfall in the coming days. The "A" over the peninsula indicates "above average" rainfall. Note that in the past two Octobers we received 0.00 rainfall so anything will be a plus.
The exact formation location of this weekend's storm is still in doubt, with the ECMWF model and UKMET model predicting the storm will form in the Gulf of Mexico off the west coast of Florida, and the GFS model predicting formation over the Bahamas. We'll have to wait for future model runs before we can get a better handle on where and when this storm will most likely develop.
Below: The 1974 storm's path.
Below: There's nothing out there tonight. This is the current water vapor image of the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. The blob of clouds to the center-right of the image is Tropical Storm Philippe. . . hundreds of miles to our east.
Wherever the storm forms we could certainly use the rain.
Above: In this model consensus map the Low is centered off of Key West, Florida on Tuesday, October 11, 2011. There is a strong High over New England that won't allow the Low (should it form) to move away quickly. The pressure gradient between the strong low and the strong high should cause onshore flow into Northeast Florida with wind and heavy rains.
The 1974 storm brought 10 - 14 inches of rain to the east coast of Florida and strong onshore winds of 30 - 40 mph that caused beach erosion and coastal flooding.
Above: This graphic from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center hints at some event that will bring Florida much-needed rainfall in the coming days. The "A" over the peninsula indicates "above average" rainfall. Note that in the past two Octobers we received 0.00 rainfall so anything will be a plus.
The exact formation location of this weekend's storm is still in doubt, with the ECMWF model and UKMET model predicting the storm will form in the Gulf of Mexico off the west coast of Florida, and the GFS model predicting formation over the Bahamas. We'll have to wait for future model runs before we can get a better handle on where and when this storm will most likely develop.
Below: The 1974 storm's path.
Below: There's nothing out there tonight. This is the current water vapor image of the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. The blob of clouds to the center-right of the image is Tropical Storm Philippe. . . hundreds of miles to our east.
To read about the death of two of the world's largest trees in Sequoia National Forest go to Phillip's Natural World III
To see photos of some of our native Lotus go to Phillip's Natural World II.
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