Tropical Rains for Florida?

Above: The current quantitative precipitation forecast from NOAA's Hydrometerorological Prediction Center now indicating 7+ inches of rainfall along the east coast of Florida from Stuart north to St. Augustine. Click on graphic for a larger view.

THE FORECAST STORM

This morning's computer model runs now predict a large low pressure system with heavy rains developing over Cuba and South Florida on Saturday, Oct. 8, 2011. The counter-clockwise flow around this low should bring strong winds and heavy rains to much of the Florida coast on Saturday, and these conditions will spread northwards to Georgia by Sunday and South Carolina by Monday. This is desperately needed rainfall. This weather event should also spawn rain showers across the length of drought-stricken Texas.

Most of the models develop this system into a tropical or subtropical storm, but the potential location of such a storm is still in question. The ECMWF model predicts the storm will form in the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, then move north into the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. If this track verifies, the oil rigs off the coast of Southeast Louisiana may experience a one or two day period of sustained winds above tropical storm force Monday or Tuesday.

The GFS and NOGAPS models put the storm on the other side of Florida, over the Northwestern Bahamas, and predict the storm will move northwards and hit North Carolina on Wednesday. The UKMET model is in-between, developing the storm right on top of Florida.

Since the storm is going to be getting its start as a cold-cored upper-level low pressure system with some dry air aloft, it will probably start out subtropical, with a large band of heavy rain developing well north of the center, bringing heavy rains to a wide region of the Southeast U.S.

Subtropical storms cannot intensify quickly, due to their lack of an organized inner core. If the storm follows the path of the GFS model, it could be similar to Subtropical Storm Four of October 4, 1974 (see previous post). That storm brought 10 - 14 inches of rain to the east coast of Florida and strong onshore winds of 30 - 40 mph that caused beach erosion and coastal flooding.

Below: The current Infrared Image of Florida shows nothing but clear skies, as has been typical this summer-fall.