A large low pressure system centered over the eastern Yucatan peninsula, near Mexico's Cozumel Island (Invest 95L), is bringing heavy rains to Western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula. Rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches have fallen over Central and Western Cuba since October 9, according to radar rainfall estimates from the Key West Radar. Heavy rains have also affected portions of the Florida Keys.
Wind shear over 95L is currently a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and is expected to stay in the moderate range over the next three days. This should allow 95L a decent chance to develop into a tropical depression, once it pulls away from the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday.
The National Hurricane Center is giving the system a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, and has scheduled a hurricane hunter aircraft to investigate the system on Monday afternoon.
The storm is currently moving northwest, but should turn north and then northeast by Tuesday, as it gets sucked into an approaching trough of low pressure (cold front). This trough should pull 95L into the west coast of Florida on Tuesday, and the southwest portion of Florida could receive up to 6 inches of rain from 95L.
Once 95L meets up with the trough, wind shear will rise sharply, and it is unlikely 95L will be able to grow any stronger than a 50 mph tropical storm before landfall occurs along the west coast of Florida. It is more likely that 95L will have top winds of 35 - 45 mph at landfall on Tuesday.
Below: At 2:00 pm the computer models were predicting the storm to cross Florida west-to-east along the I-4 corridor from Tampa to Orlando to Daytona Beach.
NOAA is currently forecasting heavy rains for Central Florida beginning Monday night and lasting through Tuesday. We desperately need the rain so we'll be happy for whatever 95 L brings our way.
Should the storm become strong enough to receive a name she will be called Tropical Storm Rina.
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