Corn Crop Shrivels in Searing Heat

Across a wide stretch of the Midwest, sweltering temperatures and a lack of rain are threatening what had been expected to be the nation’s largest corn (Zea mays) crop in generations.  Weeks of drought and days of 100° F (38° C) temperatures have taken a toll on this year's corn crop.

The corn crisis from several weeks ago is now becoming a disaster.

Already, some farmers in Illinois and Missouri have given up on parched and stunted fields, mowing them over. National experts say parts of five corn-growing states, including Indiana, Kentucky and Ohio, are experiencing severe or extreme drought conditions. And in at least nine states, conditions in one-fifth to one-half of cornfields have been deemed poor or very poor, federal authorities reported this week, a notable shift from the high expectations of just a month ago.

Crop insurance agents and agricultural economists are watching closely, a few comparing the situation with the devastating drought of 1988, when corn yields shriveled significantly, while some farmers have begun alluding, unhappily, to the Dust Bowl of the 1930s.

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The combination of drought and heat is hitting the corn during the start of its pollination period, which is ahead of schedule by up to several weeks this year, due to warm weather in the Spring.  Far more is at stake in the coming pivotal days: with the brief, delicate phase of pollination imminent in many states, miles and miles of corn will rise or fall on whether rain soon appears and temperatures moderate.

A virtually rainless June, has caused cornfields dry up and die as others remain in some uncertain in-between.  Every day that passes, more corn will be abandoned.  Some farmers say that even if it starts raining now, there will not be that bumper crop of corn everyone talked about.

For farmers, especially those without insurance, the pressure mounts, they say, with each check on the morning weather forecast, with every stifling walk through a cloudless field. But the worries have quickly spread: corn prices have risen on the Chicago Board of Trade in recent days on the likelihood of a smaller crop, as analysts weigh the broader prospect of rising prices for food and effects on ethanol production.

The plants are short, leaves curling unhappily and with a telltale pale yellow hue rising from stems.

Some experts are more optimistic, saying the fate of the nation’s corn crop, the largest in the world, cannot be known until later in the summer, after pollination, when it is clear whether kernels or empty spaces fill the ears of corn and whether enough ears appear at all.

They note that the driest, hottest conditions have steered clear of some crucial Corn Belt states (above), including Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota and western Iowa, the nation’s most prolific corn producer. In those states, the crop appears healthy and strong — not to mention increasingly valuable.

Despite some nasty drought years dating back to the 1930s, much of the corn belt does not have irrigation.  However, some of it, especially in Nebraska and Kansas, is irrigated though those areas have felt the effects of drought, too, requiring more water and, potentially, driving up costs.

In its most recent assessment, released on Monday, the Department of Agriculture reported that 48 percent of corn crops nationally were in good or excellent condition, a drop from 56 percent of crops a week earlier. In some states, though, the circumstances were far worse. In Indiana, half of corn crops were designated poor or very poor, and in Illinois, another state among the nation’s top corn producers, only 26 percent of crops were considered good or excellent.

100° temperatures sucking the life out of everything

American farmers had high expectations for corn this year, planting 96.4 million acres of it — a number 5 percent more than the previous year. High prices and an expectation of strong returns made this year’s planting the largest corn acreage in 75 years. Those were electrifying times in farm country, with farmland prices rising skyward, even as the recovery moved sluggishly in other areas of the country.

An uncharacteristically warm March in the Midwest sent hopes still higher, allowing farmers to plant corn weeks earlier than usual. For some crops, including some cherries in Michigan and apples in Indiana, unexpected April frosts then caused damage, but the corn, said Randy Anderson, a farmer in Southern Illinois, went right along beautifully.

And then very little rain fell, and temperatures soared. By last week around corn country, scores of triple-digit heat records were being broken: Jefferson County, Mo., 111° F (43.8° C); Evansville, Ind., 107° (41.6° C). That left corn shriveling.

Weather and drought conditions in the hard-hit areas were approaching that of 1988 and 1983. Extreme heat and drought hit during much of the growing season in 1988. In 1983, a burst of extreme heat occurred during the pollination period of the corn.

Fertilization in Danger

For much of the region, the next few weeks — as the plants’ tassels shed pollen to fertilize the silks and create kernels — are crucial. The endless fields of soybeans are at risk in the Midwestern heat, too, though they are seen as more resilient and able to pollinate later.

But a stressed, withered corn plant may not pollinate at all.  There is a very narrow window for corn, and there’s little room for error.  Whatever happens in that window, it is what it is — that cob is made or broken.

Weather forecasts suggest relief in the form of lower temperatures in parts of the Midwest next week, with some rain, but not the deluge many may need.

While conditions continue to be favorable for a good corn crop over the northern part of the corn belt, there will obviously be great impact to overall production of this year's corn crop, which will likely fall well short of original expectations.

The upcoming shortfall is likely to impact the price of corn feed and grain related items significantly and could trickle down to higher food and gas prices. Chickens, for example, eat primarily corn feed. Fuel currently contains between 5 and 10 percent of ethanol, which is distilled from corn.