Hurricane Flags Fly Over Tampa

Hurricane Warning Flags will be flying for the Republican National Convention in Tampa on Monday, August 27, 2012.  The two red flags with inset black boxes indicate Hurricane Warnings are in effect.  The current National Weather Service forecast for Monday is for Tropical Storm Conditions across West Central Florida including Tampa.  Gusty winds, torrential downpours, and squally weather are forecast to greet Republicans as they gather to party in Tampa.

While the current forecast for Tropical Storm Isaac keeps the storm offshore of Tampa the storm is large and its effects will be felt across the Florida peninsula as it moves around the semi-permanent Bermuda High toward a landfall somewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

The strongest part of a northern hemisphere storm is the right front quadrant (the east side).  The current forecast is for that side of Isaac to be blowing across Florida Monday to Tuesday.

Emergency management officials are keeping watch on Isaac.   If the Tropical Storm churns out thunderstorms or becomes a hurricane, officials say they will follow standard emergency procedures for shelter and evacuation despite the additional 50,000 visitors and 15,000 protesters expected to be in town for the convention.  The convention center is located on Tampa Bay and will be among the first areas ordered evacuated if the storm approaches.

Emergency managers will follow standard procedure:  tracking the tropical weather system during the week of the convention, then relaying the information to convention organizers.

And if a storm does hit, work crews will be out the moment the weather calms down to assess damage and begin repairs, emergency officials said.

If a hurricane or tropical storm is bearing down on Tampa, the priority of law enforcement is to evacuate residents, leaving GOP officials to make the decision of when to evacuate delegates.  Historically Republicans have a poor record of dealing with Hurricanes (remember the response to Hurricane Andrew and Hurricane Katrina).

In 2008, Hurricane Gustav slammed into Louisiana just as the GOP convention in St. Paul., Minn., was getting under way. The Category 2 storm led Republicans to cancel opening-day events and open with a scaled-down national convention.

Gustav also forced then-President George W. Bush to stay in Washington and address delegates via a satellite uplink.

Tropical Storm Isaac was getting better organized as it approached Haiti on Friday night.  It is forecast to lose some of its punch as it moves across the mountainous terrain of Haiti and Cuba but then regenerate over the warm waters of the Florida Straights. 

The storm's maximum sustained winds early Wednesday are currently 70 mph. The U.S. National Hurricane Center says Isaac is expected to strengthen and could become a hurricane by Monday.

Tropical storm warnings are in effect from the Palm Beaches across to Fort Myers (south of Tampa).

Already this week, as crews prepare for the convention, Tampa has been reminded of the potential damage from Florida's summertime weather.

Heavy rain and strong winds swept through Tampa on Monday night blew down an overhead sign on the Hyde Park Avenue access to Davis Islands, closing the right lane and leading to massive traffic backups Tuesday morning.

There also were damage reports from Pinellas County, where high winds blew through between 8 and 11 p.m. Monday.

This graphic predicts the water from a worst-case Category 4 hurricane striking Tampa Bay.  Note the location of the Republican National Convention is in a very low-lying area (bay front).  In a Category 4 storm it is estimated the convention center would be under 20 feet of water.

The storm also damaged a covered, quarter-mile-long, air-conditioned tent installed between the Tampa Convention Center and the Forum. It was built to protect convention-goers from rain and heat.

The tents are not designed to withstand squalls from tropical storms.

The flags flying across Florida this weekend are shown below.

U.S. Weather Service flags
(coastal storm signals)

Small Craft Warning
Gale Warning
Storm/Full Gale Warning
Hurricane Warning