Phillip's Natural World: Florida's July Meltdown

This is the only safe place in Central Florida, far from people.

Everyone expects Florida to be hot in July but when rains fail to materialize it is exceptionally hot. Add to the heat a politically inept response to a raging COVID-19 outbreak and you've got the recipe for a meltdown in the Sunshine State.

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Drastic Weather Changes Coming
A rather drastic weather pattern change will briefly present itself today with a significant drop in rain coverage (now day 5). Ridging aloft continues to build across Florida, leading to deep easterly flow that will strengthen through the afternoon on July 16.

Pond to lake view at sunset, Lake Theresa

While onshore flow typically favors interior to west coast thunderstorm activity, the coverage of storms will be inhibited on the 16th-17th of July, again, due to a swath of dry air sinking across northeast Florida. This will result in best chances of precipitation in the south across the Lake Okeechobee region.

Kayaking Florida

Onshore east coast winds will offer a gradual relief to July's exceptionally hot temperatures, with afternoon highs peaking in the low 80°s at the coast, but still reaching the mid-90°s across the interior, where the moderating effect of oceanic air will not arrive until late in the days.

Here Come the Trade Winds

Often referred to simply as "the Easterlies," the permanent east-to-west prevailing winds that flow in the Earth's equatorial region will move into Florida this week. The winds flow between 30°N and 30°S latitudes fluctuating with the seasons. In 2020 the Easterlies have been mostly south of Florida. These trade winds act as steering flow for tropical disturbances and storms that form over the Atlantic Ocean.

Saturday, July 18th should bring the weather pattern change to much breezier and wetter. The persistent synoptic pattern shows a strong, zonally oriented ridge will set up over the middle USA for at least the next week. This with result in light to moderate deep layer east to east-southeast flow over Florida with daily convective chances being enhanced by westward moving low to mid-level disturbances embedded within the Easterlies, and their associated increases in low level moisture and convergence also enhancing the convective cycle over Florida.

For most of June and July Florida has seen the opposite flow: Westerlies.

Hot and dry days in Florida

Model guidance is very aggressive on precipitation over the 3rd week of July 2020 with several days in the 60-80% rain chance category.

Another hot and dry sunset on Lake Theresa

Covid Art by Andy Marlette

Florida Records Coronavirus Fatality Record

Meanwhile coronavirus rages unchecked across Florida with July 16 recording the highest-ever number of daily Florida deaths at 156 and another ~14,000 infections with COVID-19. Government ineptitude is the rule in Florida. It is apparently survival of everyman for himself at this point.