Friday, July 24, 2020

Fearsome I-named Hurricanes

Tropical Storm Hanna approaches Texas, July 24, 2020.
As the Atlantic's hurricane season heats up and Florida is engulfed with runaway COVID-19 infections, in the back of everyone's mind is that we're already up to the i-named storms in the list of hurricane names for 2020.
July 24, 2020.  Orange highlighted area could be storm Isaias, sometime next week.
Why Fear the I-named Storms?
I-named storms are the most retired names (11 of the ~80 storms names that have been retired) meaning i-named storms have caused some horrifying death and destruction.

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Most recently, no one in Florida can forget 2017's Hurricane Irma which caused widespread destruction and near-universal disruption in the Florida peninsula.  Before getting to Florida the storm caused catastrophic damage in Barbuda, Saint Barthélemy, Saint Martin, Anguilla, and the Virgin Islands.  In Florida Irma was responsible for the largest evacuation in the state's history:  6.5 million people were ordered to evacuate.  In the United States Irma caused 92 deaths and $50 billion in damage, mostly in Florida.  
Hurricane Irma approaches the Lesser Antilles on September 5, 2017 as a Category 5 hurricane
The difference between 2017 and 2020 is that the first Florida emergency advisories for Hurricane Irma came on September 4 of 2017.  In 2020 we've already exhausted the "G" and "H"-named storms and we've got another week to go in July.  A potential i-named storm (the name will be Isaias) is starting to appear on National Hurricane Center forecast maps far out in the western Atlantic Ocean.  The strongest hurricanes generally come later in the season, about a month from now (late August to mid-September).
Atlantic Hurricane Season typically peaks ~September 10.
Typically hurricanes do not form before August 10th and strong hurricanes do not form before the first week of September.

Some of the other frightening i-named storms that impacted Florida and the Gulf Coast of the USA include 2008's Ike ($35 billion in damage), 2004's Ivan ($27 billion in damage), 2011's Irene ($15 billion in damage), and 2012 Isaac ($3 billion in damages).
Costliest mainland United States tropical cyclones, 1900-2017, after accounting for inflation to 2017 dollars.  Source:  National Hurricane Center
The National Hurricane Center is currently forecasting a 40% chance that Tropical Cyclone Isaias could form in the next 5 days, making it more likely that we'll have to wait for a storm Josephine or Kyle to be really afraid.  We are many times more likely to see very strong hurricanes in late August to mid-September than in late July.
Hurricane Isabel slams into North Carolina (2003)

I-Storms That Have Caused Widespread Death and Destruction
Floridians fear the arrival of the "i" storm because they have been some of the most intense and damaging in history.  A quick list of i-named storms we'd like to forget off the top of my head:

Ida, 2009 (dollar damage wasn't too high, and there weren't too many deaths, but it dumped a lot of rain. Ida is one of the wettest tropical cyclones on record in Nicaragua.)

Igor, 2010

Ike, 2008 (6th costliest Atlantic hurricane on record, 195 deaths)

Inez, 1966 (Killed at least 750 people)

Ingrid, 2013

Ione, 1955 (Caused $600 million in damage, first 'I' named storm in the Atlantic to be retired)

Irene, 2011 (7th costliest Atlantic hurricane on record)

Iris, 2001 (31 deaths in Central America).  

Irma, 2017 (4th costliest Atlantic hurricane on record)

Isaac, 2012

Isabel, 1985 (debatable, as most of the damage it caused was while it was non-tropical)

Isabel, 2003

Isidore, 2002 ($1.3 billion damage, 17 deaths)

Ivan, 2004 (165 mph winds, 950hPa (28.05 inHg), 6th costliest Atlantic hurricane on record, 124 deaths)
Massive flooding occurred from Hurricane Ivan in 2004
Retired I-Named Storms
Of these storms the following names have been permanently retired by the World Meteorological Organization because they caused so much death and destruction:

1.  Hurricane Ione, Category 4, 140 mph winds (1955)
2.  Hurricane Inez, Category 4, 150 mph winds (1966)
3.  Hurricane Iris, Category 4, 145 mph winds (2001)
4.  Hurricane Isidore, Category 3, 125 mph winds (2002)
5.  Hurricane Isabel, Category 5, 165 mph winds (2003)
6.  Hurricane Ivan, Category 5, 165 mph winds (2004)
7.  Hurricane Ike, Category 4, 145 mph winds (2008)
8.  Hurricane Igor, Category 4, 155 mph winds (2010)
9.  Hurricane Irene, Category 3, 120 mph winds (2011)
10.  Hurricane Ingrid, Category 1, 85 mph winds (2013)
11.  Hurricane Irma, Category 5, 180 mph winds (2017)
Widespread destruction around Galveston with Hurricane Ike (2008).
Meanwhile. . .
+12,444 new infections today
+135 new deaths today




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