Hurricane Isaias became 2020's second Atlantic hurricane overnight Wednesday on its way to the Bahamas, which it has been strafing today with heavy rains, lashing winds, and tidal surge.
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Hurricane Skies: East Central Florida lakes could use a foot or more of rain so there could be benefits to the hurricane tracking closer to Florida.
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The most recent model trends are for a weaker Cat 1 Hurricane Isaias or a strong Tropical Storm Isaias to briefly make landfall in Florida in about 48 hours. The models have trended toward a weaker storm with a more westerly track over the past few days. Any deviation to the west could bring much more significant rains to Florida.
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| GFS (American) model trends July 30-31, 2020 From stronger to weaker and west to east |
From July 30 - 31st the GFS (American) model trended much weaker and closer to Cape Canaveral. Other major models had already been predicting a weaker potentially landfalling tropical storm.
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| European model July 31, 2020 shows predicts a close approach of Hurricane Isaias to Florida. |
The European model (above) shows a similarly close approach and transit of the Florida Space Coast and Cape Canaveral.
Tropical storm conditions could begin along the east coast of Florida as soon as Saturday (August 1) as the fast-moving storm hugs the coast as it moves northward. Isaias is currently located at 21.7° N, 74.5° W moving NW at 16 mph (26/kph).
North Carolina, in particular, may be hard hit by the storm Monday into Tuesday, where Isaias could make a second landfall.
Earlier this week, Isaias dropped up to 8 inches of rain in southwest Puerto Rico, and knocked power out to more than 400,000 residents of the island.
The storm then plowed through the Dominican Republic, reshuffling its axis of rotation and strengthening more than expected.
A Hurricane Watch is currently in effect for the Florida east coast from north of Deerfield Beach north to the Volusia County line (north of Cape Canaveral).
Florida COVID-19 Epicenter and Hurricane Isaias
The tropical threat comes as Florida continues to flounder with its response to COVID-19 and faces a sharp increase in coronavirus cases. Despite the runaway virus Florida has suspended state-run COVID-19 testing at outdoor locations into next week. COVID-19 testing is expect to resume in Florida on Wednesday, August 5.
On Friday, July 31, 2020, Florida's Department of Health confirmed 9,007 additional infections with COVID-19 bringing the state's known total to 470,386, which is nearly twice the number of infections in Italy.
There were also 257 Florida deaths announced, breaking a fatality record for the fourth day in a row.
The statewide death tool is now 6,843.
The 257 deaths mark the highest single-day Florida death toll announced by the Florida Department of Health since the pandemic began.
During the week from July 23 to July 30, Florida led all other states in the number of new infections per capita reporting over 70,000 new infections.
Florida's rate of positive COVID-19 tests remains among the highest in the world at near 20% during July 2020.
FEMA
FEMA plans to rely less on deployed field teams in areas where community spread of COVID-19 is occurring, insted processing damage claims remotely. IN addition, storm planning documents encourage officials to consider ordering those not vulnerable to storm surge or other flooding impacts to shelter in place.
Any gathering in Florida is a potential COVID-19 Superspreader event at this point in the pandemic.
Remember that FEMA won't help you if you flood. FEMA also won't help if you have homeowner's insurance.
Most Florida lakes are quite low today so that can easily absorb a tropical storm's potential rainfall.
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